BTCUSD: Watching for Expansion in the 4-Hour Time Frame
Hi Everyone! We are watching for Expansion in the 4-hour time frame. Be careful of little shakeouts inside a tight trading range in the 1-hour; if scalping... Yes, it's POSSIBLE to go sideways a while with small shakeouts for the next 24 or more hours. EMOTIONS are high at present and THEY (Composite Groups) know it. Don't let FOMO control you... Let the comfort of "knowledge" stored in our SPIRIT (Seat of the intelect; the part which KNOWS) "control" your SOUL (also referred to as the HEART; the seat of emotions, passions and desires). Don't let your "heart" (emtions, passions and desires) "control" your MIND (spirit). RENEW your "mind" with "knowledge" that will give your soul (emotions) more comfort.
If we were to see a significant drop play out over time; I could see that initially taking us to the White LOWER B-Band in the 9-Day time frame; which is currently at $39,107. HOWEVER, the current 9-Day candle has 8-Days and 21 hours remaining. The Red RSI is not below Level 50 yet in the 9-Day. So, the odds of us seeing the White LOWER B-Band in the 9-Day time frame on THIS CURRENT CANDLE is actually quite low. We would likely not see that (if it were to play out) in the NEXT 9-Day candle.
So, keep in mind, we have 8-Days and 21 hours remaining in the CURRENT 9-Day candle. A "lot" can happen in the next 8-Days and 21 hours in LOWER time frames than the 9-Day time frame. For now, I still see us ranging SIDEWAYS a while longer. I would be more apt to anticipate a move DOWN if the Red RSI in the 4-Hour was below level 50 (AND) the Blue LSMA was going down and approaching Level 50 in the 4-hour. Then we have a chance for the B-bands to expand and "close" with visible sign of expansion potential the NEXT 4-hour candle "AFTER" the Blue LSMA has crossed below Level 50 in the 4-hour. Well, that's several more 4-Hour candles, isn't it? Yes, I know the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the 30-minute, 60-minute, 90-minute, 2-hour and 3-hour can look SPOOKY to one's EMOTIONS at present. However, I personally believe in order to see some SERIOUS expansion down in the lower time frames mentioned, we need the Blue LSMA in the 4-Hour to at least be at or below Level 56. The Blue LSMA is currently at Level 72 in the 4-Hour. Like I said, still several 4-hour candles remaining IF we are to see expansion down.
Did I say, "we ARE going to see expansion down? NO.... I'm pointing out what must occur in order to have a chance for expansion down in the 4-hour and SERIOUS expansion down in the 30-minute, 60-minute, 90-minute, 2-hour and 3-hour time frames.
I'll update more later. I have a LOT of work to do. So, "later" may be nearly 20 to 24 hours from now.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
If we were to see a significant drop play out over time; I could see that initially taking us to the White LOWER B-Band in the 9-Day time frame; which is currently at $39,107. HOWEVER, the current 9-Day candle has 8-Days and 21 hours remaining. The Red RSI is not below Level 50 yet in the 9-Day. So, the odds of us seeing the White LOWER B-Band in the 9-Day time frame on THIS CURRENT CANDLE is actually quite low. We would likely not see that (if it were to play out) in the NEXT 9-Day candle.
So, keep in mind, we have 8-Days and 21 hours remaining in the CURRENT 9-Day candle. A "lot" can happen in the next 8-Days and 21 hours in LOWER time frames than the 9-Day time frame. For now, I still see us ranging SIDEWAYS a while longer. I would be more apt to anticipate a move DOWN if the Red RSI in the 4-Hour was below level 50 (AND) the Blue LSMA was going down and approaching Level 50 in the 4-hour. Then we have a chance for the B-bands to expand and "close" with visible sign of expansion potential the NEXT 4-hour candle "AFTER" the Blue LSMA has crossed below Level 50 in the 4-hour. Well, that's several more 4-Hour candles, isn't it? Yes, I know the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the 30-minute, 60-minute, 90-minute, 2-hour and 3-hour can look SPOOKY to one's EMOTIONS at present. However, I personally believe in order to see some SERIOUS expansion down in the lower time frames mentioned, we need the Blue LSMA in the 4-Hour to at least be at or below Level 56. The Blue LSMA is currently at Level 72 in the 4-Hour. Like I said, still several 4-hour candles remaining IF we are to see expansion down.
Did I say, "we ARE going to see expansion down? NO.... I'm pointing out what must occur in order to have a chance for expansion down in the 4-hour and SERIOUS expansion down in the 30-minute, 60-minute, 90-minute, 2-hour and 3-hour time frames.
I'll update more later. I have a LOT of work to do. So, "later" may be nearly 20 to 24 hours from now.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Comment:
IMPORTANT UPDATE:
Here is the text inside the Red Text Bubble in the 15-minute chart below:
Show you the DIFFERENCE between SERIOUS expansion and SMALL expansion of the B-Bands in the 15-minute time frame.
So, do NOT assume when the Red RSI and Blue LSMA cross below level 50 that you will see SERIOUS expansion. What
will give us a better IDEA of whether we have an increased odds or chance of SERIOUS expansion in this 16-minute time frames?
Well, why do you think I posted the 4-Hour time frame? Why do you think I posted the entire Short Term Group to also have a
look at the 8-hour time frame?
Here is the text inside the Red Text Bubble in the 15-minute chart below:
Show you the DIFFERENCE between SERIOUS expansion and SMALL expansion of the B-Bands in the 15-minute time frame.
So, do NOT assume when the Red RSI and Blue LSMA cross below level 50 that you will see SERIOUS expansion. What
will give us a better IDEA of whether we have an increased odds or chance of SERIOUS expansion in this 16-minute time frames?
Well, why do you think I posted the 4-Hour time frame? Why do you think I posted the entire Short Term Group to also have a
look at the 8-hour time frame?
Comment:
UPDATE:
It's possible to get a little expansion in the 4-hour... POSSIBLE.... IF SO, we could see the White LOWER... if not the Aqua LOWER B-Band in the 8-hour as the target. Then we'll see what the indicators look like if we go there.
It's possible to get a little expansion in the 4-hour... POSSIBLE.... IF SO, we could see the White LOWER... if not the Aqua LOWER B-Band in the 8-hour as the target. Then we'll see what the indicators look like if we go there.
Comment:
UPDATE:
You would be watching to see if we begin some serious CONTRACTION "UP" in the 15 and 30 minute time frames. Will Red RSI and Blue LSMA in 30-minute (right) cross above Level 20 to have a chance? And then above Level 30 to see INCREASED odds of going UP with CONTRACTION of the B-Bands?
Which means you would also be watching your IMMEDIATE GROUP (below):
Is your Red RSI and Blue LSMA looking to stay strong above Level 50 to keep the price action ABOVE the B-Band BASIS for a SUSTAINED period of time?
You would be watching to see if we begin some serious CONTRACTION "UP" in the 15 and 30 minute time frames. Will Red RSI and Blue LSMA in 30-minute (right) cross above Level 20 to have a chance? And then above Level 30 to see INCREASED odds of going UP with CONTRACTION of the B-Bands?
Which means you would also be watching your IMMEDIATE GROUP (below):
Is your Red RSI and Blue LSMA looking to stay strong above Level 50 to keep the price action ABOVE the B-Band BASIS for a SUSTAINED period of time?
Comment:
UPDATE:
In other words, if you had opened a margin short the moment we began EXPANSIOIN "DOWN" (price action going DOWN with EXPANSION) in the 30-minute time frame, you would be MONITORING to determine if the RISK is increasing to a point in which you should begin to consider taking some profits off the table or at some point close the short all together...
In other words, if you had opened a margin short the moment we began EXPANSIOIN "DOWN" (price action going DOWN with EXPANSION) in the 30-minute time frame, you would be MONITORING to determine if the RISK is increasing to a point in which you should begin to consider taking some profits off the table or at some point close the short all together...
Comment:
UPDATE:
You've heard me say, "We don't know what we don't know UNTIL we KNOW it."
Does this mean you cannot open a position until you KNOW something? Yes...
Does this mean you KNOW the entire picture into the future? No... BUT you have a good idea of WHEN it's worth the RISK and demand required of your VALUABLE "TIME" to open a position and KNOW what to LOOK FOR when considering to keep your position OPEN, to take partial profit on your position OR to close your position entirely with little to no loss.
Keep those losses small and your gains LARGE...
You've heard me say, "We don't know what we don't know UNTIL we KNOW it."
Does this mean you cannot open a position until you KNOW something? Yes...
Does this mean you KNOW the entire picture into the future? No... BUT you have a good idea of WHEN it's worth the RISK and demand required of your VALUABLE "TIME" to open a position and KNOW what to LOOK FOR when considering to keep your position OPEN, to take partial profit on your position OR to close your position entirely with little to no loss.
Keep those losses small and your gains LARGE...
Comment:
UPDATE:
It's a matter of KNOWING when we can lose the Upper B-Band, Lower B-Band or Basis (UP or DOWN) when using Phoenix Ascending WITH the Bad Ass B-Bands to open a position and later (WHEN WE KNOW MORE) determine if you should keep that position open, take partial profit or close it all together with little or no loss; maybe a small gain.
Okay... Time to create another ORGANIZED lesson to my lesson plans. Got to WORK....
Stay Awesome!
David
It's a matter of KNOWING when we can lose the Upper B-Band, Lower B-Band or Basis (UP or DOWN) when using Phoenix Ascending WITH the Bad Ass B-Bands to open a position and later (WHEN WE KNOW MORE) determine if you should keep that position open, take partial profit or close it all together with little or no loss; maybe a small gain.
Okay... Time to create another ORGANIZED lesson to my lesson plans. Got to WORK....
Stay Awesome!
David
Comment:
UPDATE:
I'm simply posting my replay to another person to ENCOURAGE people to actually watch the video and see what's in the description BEFORE proclaiming I said or implied this or that..;.
Thank you!!!
Here are my replies...
WQPortfolios
∙
30 minutes ago
Lets not lose track of: 1) Equity markets have stabilized now that it seems that concerns about the new virus strain are likely overblown 2) Funding rates have been equalized and no longer would have a bearish tilt 3) Reserves at exchanges are EXTREMELY low. Anyone "hoping" for a downward move below where we already hit and found support.....is setting themselves up for failure. Just because David lays out a situation where the indicators say something is or may be "possible" doesn't mean that its even remotely likely. A full recovery and continued upward movement is way more likely than 39K but given that the indicators play on current momentum, we aren't going to talk about that. Remember that David isn't giving odds here. No emotions+indicators+ understanding of markets and quant data= success. If the indicators point down, but there is no exchange inflows, Futures funding rates are negative, hash power is unchanged, Exchange reserves are near 6 month lows, and equity markets are solid- guess what? Its not going down.....common sense.
Reply
WyckoffMode
∙
12 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
Did you not watch the video?
Seriously?
I actually said in the video that I believe we are going UP... Damn...
Reply
Edit
WyckoffMode
∙
11 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
Have you not looked at the charts in the description?
Especially recent charts...
I also pointed out in the video the Blue LSMA in the 4-hour is likely holding us back from SERIOUS expansion down.
So do NOT put words in my mouth or MY publications saying, I'm IMPLYING something I absolutely did NOT imply.
Reply
Edit
WyckoffMode
∙
9 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
Don't get me wrong... I want people to comment...
HOWEVER, it would be great if people would ACTUALLY WATCH my video before saying, "He is implying or he is saying this or that...."
Thank you!
Reply
Edit
WyckoffMode
∙
5 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
The ONLY reason I pointed out the White/Aqua LOWER B-Bands in the 8-hour is "IF WE WERE" to see expansion down EVENTUALLY in the 4-hour, that is where I can see us going.
Pay ATTENTION...
I'm simply posting my replay to another person to ENCOURAGE people to actually watch the video and see what's in the description BEFORE proclaiming I said or implied this or that..;.
Thank you!!!
Here are my replies...
WQPortfolios
∙
30 minutes ago
Lets not lose track of: 1) Equity markets have stabilized now that it seems that concerns about the new virus strain are likely overblown 2) Funding rates have been equalized and no longer would have a bearish tilt 3) Reserves at exchanges are EXTREMELY low. Anyone "hoping" for a downward move below where we already hit and found support.....is setting themselves up for failure. Just because David lays out a situation where the indicators say something is or may be "possible" doesn't mean that its even remotely likely. A full recovery and continued upward movement is way more likely than 39K but given that the indicators play on current momentum, we aren't going to talk about that. Remember that David isn't giving odds here. No emotions+indicators+ understanding of markets and quant data= success. If the indicators point down, but there is no exchange inflows, Futures funding rates are negative, hash power is unchanged, Exchange reserves are near 6 month lows, and equity markets are solid- guess what? Its not going down.....common sense.
Reply
WyckoffMode
∙
12 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
Did you not watch the video?
Seriously?
I actually said in the video that I believe we are going UP... Damn...
Reply
Edit
WyckoffMode
∙
11 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
Have you not looked at the charts in the description?
Especially recent charts...
I also pointed out in the video the Blue LSMA in the 4-hour is likely holding us back from SERIOUS expansion down.
So do NOT put words in my mouth or MY publications saying, I'm IMPLYING something I absolutely did NOT imply.
Reply
Edit
WyckoffMode
∙
9 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
Don't get me wrong... I want people to comment...
HOWEVER, it would be great if people would ACTUALLY WATCH my video before saying, "He is implying or he is saying this or that...."
Thank you!
Reply
Edit
WyckoffMode
∙
5 minutes ago
@WQPortfolios,
The ONLY reason I pointed out the White/Aqua LOWER B-Bands in the 8-hour is "IF WE WERE" to see expansion down EVENTUALLY in the 4-hour, that is where I can see us going.
Pay ATTENTION...
Comment:
UPDATE:
You are still watching for EXANSION in this Immediate Group if you had opened a position earlier using the 8min. 15min. and 30min. time frames, Expansion Hunters!
You are still watching for EXANSION in this Immediate Group if you had opened a position earlier using the 8min. 15min. and 30min. time frames, Expansion Hunters!
Comment:
UPDATE:
This assumes you are still in the trade of course. Maybe you are still in the trade and had only taken 20%, 25%, 30%, 40% or 50% profits off the table while letting the rest RIDE? You would be watching the Immediate Group and Short Term Group to see if you should consider closing the position all together or still Let it RIDE.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
This assumes you are still in the trade of course. Maybe you are still in the trade and had only taken 20%, 25%, 30%, 40% or 50% profits off the table while letting the rest RIDE? You would be watching the Immediate Group and Short Term Group to see if you should consider closing the position all together or still Let it RIDE.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
Comment:
UPDATE
I need some sleep... Before I go... I misconstrued what someone said who was kind of enough to add something positive to the conversation. I wasn't "awesome." Things have been a bit "busy" as of late and I SHOULD have took time to read what they said AGAIN... However, I did not want to take the time... I need to step back and chill first next time... and re-address what I may "think" I'm reading and put myself in someone else's shoes for a moment.
I need some sleep... Stay Awesome!
WQPortfolios
∙
3 hours ago
@WyckoffMode, I think you misconstrued my comments, as I wasn't arguing with you, I was trying to ensure people didn't miss the BIG PICTURE while focusing on the micro 4 hour picture. As an investment advisor, understanding the dynamics of the market beyond technicals is important when you are making decisions beyond daytrading, and I wanted people to REMEMBER to look at quant data and basic market health analytics before overreacting to some of the shorter term indicators. As you very well know- as soon as you mention the mere possibility of 39K, people immediately hold onto that. I was simply trying to DISPELL that as being a likely outcome, i was NOT implying that you thought it WAS the likely outcome
Reply
WyckoffMode
∙
just now
@WQPortfolios,
Yes, now that you say that... It looks like I did "misconstrue" what you said... I should have read it a second time and I likely would not have responded the way I did...
My sincere apologies...
Stay Awesome!
David
I need some sleep... Before I go... I misconstrued what someone said who was kind of enough to add something positive to the conversation. I wasn't "awesome." Things have been a bit "busy" as of late and I SHOULD have took time to read what they said AGAIN... However, I did not want to take the time... I need to step back and chill first next time... and re-address what I may "think" I'm reading and put myself in someone else's shoes for a moment.
I need some sleep... Stay Awesome!
WQPortfolios
∙
3 hours ago
@WyckoffMode, I think you misconstrued my comments, as I wasn't arguing with you, I was trying to ensure people didn't miss the BIG PICTURE while focusing on the micro 4 hour picture. As an investment advisor, understanding the dynamics of the market beyond technicals is important when you are making decisions beyond daytrading, and I wanted people to REMEMBER to look at quant data and basic market health analytics before overreacting to some of the shorter term indicators. As you very well know- as soon as you mention the mere possibility of 39K, people immediately hold onto that. I was simply trying to DISPELL that as being a likely outcome, i was NOT implying that you thought it WAS the likely outcome
Reply
WyckoffMode
∙
just now
@WQPortfolios,
Yes, now that you say that... It looks like I did "misconstrue" what you said... I should have read it a second time and I likely would not have responded the way I did...
My sincere apologies...
Stay Awesome!
David
Comment:
UPDATE:
6-hour time frame:
6-hour time frame:
Near Term Group: (30min. 60min. 90min. 2hr. 3hr. 4hr. 6hr. and 8hr.)
Mid Term Group: (4-D, 8-D, 9-D, 10-D, 11-D, 12-D, 13-D and 14-Day)