There are a lot of people that have been looking at our price action on the weekly and suggesting we are in a mere consolidation pattern. Or they look at the monthly chart and again state we are in a consolidation pattern. To split the difference I am looking at the 15 day chart to fairly split the difference between the two as it is the closed to both doubling a 7 day week and halfing a 30.5 day month. The candle closes in about 7 hours and I don't think there are many that think that this will materially improve.
Analysis
Using the bollinger band on something like BTCUSD, which has a habit of going parabolic will stop you from getting a lot of gains if you expect it to just tap out at resistance. We do also see that it is a bit more helpful as support and there are some great entries when the price action weeks out the bollinger band.
The candle patterns boxed out are what we would expect to see from a trend reversal. The bulls have been hoping to see a blow off top and the irrational exuberance but that has not happened, in part because the bulls have entered their position hoping dumb money will take them higher. Then the bulls were going to dump on the fools.
But it does appear that smart money has been distribution on the bulls rather than fools taking price to 100k.
And how to confirm these wild and baseless allegations? Confirmation in the price action and momentum indicators. The main chart has spelled that out well enough and when the candle closes we can expect to see even more bearishness.
Closing thoughts
We can clearly expect a 80% or more pull back from here and if you look at the red retrace we could even see price action below our previous ATH of $20k. If the purple retrace is similar to the red retrace we could expect a target of $10-13k-ish and then a very long absorption period.
Another thing to consider is that after both the red and blue retraces price action came out of the 15 day bollinger band twice before pumping to all time high. If you want to minimize your downside risk and time under trade you take that second drop out of the bollinger band.
I expect to see this drop to be faster but still roughly symmetrical compared to the run up due to the overall negativity in the markets with stagflation and all that Fed Created mess. I am going to assume that every formation, be it a symmetrical triangle or wedge will break bearishly'
Analysis
Using the bollinger band on something like BTCUSD, which has a habit of going parabolic will stop you from getting a lot of gains if you expect it to just tap out at resistance. We do also see that it is a bit more helpful as support and there are some great entries when the price action weeks out the bollinger band.
The candle patterns boxed out are what we would expect to see from a trend reversal. The bulls have been hoping to see a blow off top and the irrational exuberance but that has not happened, in part because the bulls have entered their position hoping dumb money will take them higher. Then the bulls were going to dump on the fools.
But it does appear that smart money has been distribution on the bulls rather than fools taking price to 100k.
And how to confirm these wild and baseless allegations? Confirmation in the price action and momentum indicators. The main chart has spelled that out well enough and when the candle closes we can expect to see even more bearishness.
Closing thoughts
We can clearly expect a 80% or more pull back from here and if you look at the red retrace we could even see price action below our previous ATH of $20k. If the purple retrace is similar to the red retrace we could expect a target of $10-13k-ish and then a very long absorption period.
Another thing to consider is that after both the red and blue retraces price action came out of the 15 day bollinger band twice before pumping to all time high. If you want to minimize your downside risk and time under trade you take that second drop out of the bollinger band.
I expect to see this drop to be faster but still roughly symmetrical compared to the run up due to the overall negativity in the markets with stagflation and all that Fed Created mess. I am going to assume that every formation, be it a symmetrical triangle or wedge will break bearishly'
Comment:
And here we are. Way more awfulness on the close.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
