Shakeout or end of impulse? | Watch daily close | 6900 support
Good morning folks!
Today I discussed the possibility of this swift price markdown being a shakeout of weak hands or the end of the impulsive wave. If this was the end of a EW 5 wave structure we may see a ABC or an ABCDE style correction. However, we have to wait on the close of the daily to figure out if we're actually going to close a bit higher or will this be a big bearish engulfing candle that may mark further price breakdown.
As stated my max target for this move was $7400 but as healthily as we ascended in this move, I expected a slower breakdown not a quick and fast one candle $500 drop. Then again, markets are unpredictable.
I'll be watching for the close of the daily to see if we're going to start the next corrective cycle or this was a bear trap to generate liquidity, reload, and retest the supply zone above at $7300-7600.
Hope y'all enjoyed my analysis. Cheers!
Today I discussed the possibility of this swift price markdown being a shakeout of weak hands or the end of the impulsive wave. If this was the end of a EW 5 wave structure we may see a ABC or an ABCDE style correction. However, we have to wait on the close of the daily to figure out if we're actually going to close a bit higher or will this be a big bearish engulfing candle that may mark further price breakdown.
As stated my max target for this move was $7400 but as healthily as we ascended in this move, I expected a slower breakdown not a quick and fast one candle $500 drop. Then again, markets are unpredictable.
I'll be watching for the close of the daily to see if we're going to start the next corrective cycle or this was a bear trap to generate liquidity, reload, and retest the supply zone above at $7300-7600.
Hope y'all enjoyed my analysis. Cheers!
Comment:
I'm really not liking moving sideways near this support of $6900. When an asset moves sideways before a support level instead of having a strong bounce, it usually may indicate the demand is getting weakened and supply > demand. Meaning, a break is imminent. This works the same before a resistance level.
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Filled in that futures gap
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Daily OBV still rising in channel. Would like to see how the daily closes
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Possible bullish divergence 30m tf
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Gotta watch $6600 now. Didn't even blink at 6800 support. Daily close was brutal. $5400-5500 would be my target if we break down further from here.
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My ETH target on the money!
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Stairway to hell?
Look for the $6300 area for support or else $6000 it is.
Look for the $6300 area for support or else $6000 it is.
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Hovering right on the 618 fib level and finding support. Let's see if we bounce here. Prev. daily bearish engulfing was brutal and the new daily is already looking heavily bearish.
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Same stair stepping down just different level. I hate seeing bear flags printed right near support zones. Lack of weak bounces show sellers trump the buyers in this area. I'd expect this level to break too unless buyers step in.
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September 6, 2018 Update: BTC 4h chart still looking mega bearish. We're printing a massive bear flag near the $6400 zone. The small bodied green candle with downward facing wick shows a big demand zone (green box) where buyers are absorbing supply being dumped. The buyers refuse to let the price go lower. However, the succeeding candle shows a upward facing wick with a small bodied green candle. The sellers refuse to let the price go higher in the bigger supply zone (red box). All this is creating is a tightening pressure of sideways movement where one of the bulls vs. bears will lose and price will rocket down. Usually, if we haven't seen a strong rebound in price when near strong support zones $6250 (dashed purple) area, that level is looking more likely to break. Thus we have a creation of the bear flag (bearish)--steep drop down (pole), sideways movement (flag) and then an eventual break to the downside. It is because the bulls are not showing strength and supply exceeds demand in this area.
Tip: You may have a small short opportunity in the red zone with a target in the green. Not financial advice :)
Tip: You may have a small short opportunity in the red zone with a target in the green. Not financial advice :)
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Patiently waiting for the spill over or a rocket ship candle. BTC needs to make a decision. Watching closely on the daily close.
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This area was clearly tested as support on the impulsive wave, multiple times, as indicated by the green ellipses. It's only natural that we stop here for a moment before picking a direction. Either there's some big hidden walls that are accumulating or the supply and demand are in equilibrium and price is moving sideways, for now. One will lose this battle.
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We are still within the bounds of the bear flag. On the 30m time frame you can see the top of the flag lines up with one of the old supports we had created back when we were moving up past $6500. Now it has turned into resistance for us. The sideways ranging at this level will be continued progress toward a weakening of the demand zone at $6300. Unless there's a large hidden buy wall that is absorbing all the sellers' BTC here, I do not see this to be anything more than a bearish structure with an imminent breakdown.
If you shorted on my analysis yesterday, congrats you made some % profit. (not financial advice).
If you shorted on my analysis yesterday, congrats you made some % profit. (not financial advice).
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The TD sequential + Ichi cloud are my two favorite indicators and they both gave us the take profit/sell signal almost to perfection. We printed a perfect 9 + a 4 candle follow-up (13th candle), this is more often than not marked by a corrective wave. The bottom of Ichi cloud can also be seen as resistance. Both these factors tell us we were due for a pullback.
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Three days left in the weekly. Will the current weekly candle (ending on Sept 10) end as a brutal bearish engulfing?
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Support zone/demand zone is weakening after every subsequent move. You can see it by the follow-up impulsive rally's % move.
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OBV in a falling wedge. Still a long way to go though
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If you didn't set your SL's you might as well swallow that bitter pill of waking up at $7000 but at least wait for the structure to develop and see if it'll drop further or if this is just a shakeout/bear trap.