BTC is Holding Key Levels Right Now, But Remains in Downtrend!
Now that BTC is holding above the 50 week moving average (in orange) we have to consider the upside potential. Not only did BTC hold the 50 week, it also held the bottom of the falling wedge formation that it's in, as well as the 61.8% retrace for the bull run from 3150 to 13800.
Since these levels are holding right now, I have decided to remove the head and shoulders from the chart, which was featured a few analyses ago. BTC was able to quickly recover above the neckline of that pattern. So, while there is still a head and shoulders on the chart, it is also a descending wedge. With that in mind, I'm going to use the neckline of the head and shoulders (not shown) as a tool to decide between upside and downside bias. Since price is currently holding above it, I'm going to favor the bullish falling wedge on the chart. However, if price falls back below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, you will see it return to my analyses.
To be clear, BTC is only BARELY holding above the neckline of that pattern. However, it is still holding. So, on the upside, the top of the dashed falling wedge is the target. If BTC can get up there, we could see an upside breakout. If that happens, it could be extremely violent. In fact, I think an upside breakout from that falling wedge could cause BTC to test the all time high of 20K. The question is, will it happen? I'm not entirely sure. I think the bigger time-frames still suggest that BTC can fall to 3K or lower, but I wouldn't bank on that until we see more violations of key chart features. For example, if BTC drops below the 50 week, the 618 retrace, the 6000 support range, and the top of the downtrend channel (in blue) it would be much more clear that BTC is going to 3K or lower. Those major support levels are all in the same general area. So, it isn't abundantly clear if BTC will find trend changing support or not.
For now, BTC remains in a downtrend. It has been falling since the high of 2019. The only thing that will change that, is a series of higher highs and lows on the chart. The trend is your friend, and the current trend is down.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
Since these levels are holding right now, I have decided to remove the head and shoulders from the chart, which was featured a few analyses ago. BTC was able to quickly recover above the neckline of that pattern. So, while there is still a head and shoulders on the chart, it is also a descending wedge. With that in mind, I'm going to use the neckline of the head and shoulders (not shown) as a tool to decide between upside and downside bias. Since price is currently holding above it, I'm going to favor the bullish falling wedge on the chart. However, if price falls back below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, you will see it return to my analyses.
To be clear, BTC is only BARELY holding above the neckline of that pattern. However, it is still holding. So, on the upside, the top of the dashed falling wedge is the target. If BTC can get up there, we could see an upside breakout. If that happens, it could be extremely violent. In fact, I think an upside breakout from that falling wedge could cause BTC to test the all time high of 20K. The question is, will it happen? I'm not entirely sure. I think the bigger time-frames still suggest that BTC can fall to 3K or lower, but I wouldn't bank on that until we see more violations of key chart features. For example, if BTC drops below the 50 week, the 618 retrace, the 6000 support range, and the top of the downtrend channel (in blue) it would be much more clear that BTC is going to 3K or lower. Those major support levels are all in the same general area. So, it isn't abundantly clear if BTC will find trend changing support or not.
For now, BTC remains in a downtrend. It has been falling since the high of 2019. The only thing that will change that, is a series of higher highs and lows on the chart. The trend is your friend, and the current trend is down.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.