Bitcoin potential scenario/pattern

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi all,

The scenario I'm sharing with you can be used if certain movements occur.
The idea is only based on 1/4 of a pattern that occured 2 times since the March crash.

I am comparing the patterns from left to right.
All patterns seem to start with a flag after a run-up, an over-extension and dump back into the flag. From there the price slowly moves higher and makes a fake breakout that gets sold hard but no supports get broken. Price then attempts to break higher again, but gets stopped right where the initial over-extension peaked. Following this the price goes lower.

Let's start with first two patterns.

The initial dump on the second pattern was roughly 1.5 times weaker than the initial dump on the first pattern.
The run up on the second was roughly 1.5 times weaker than the run up on the first pattern.
Finally the dump from the top to bottom of the second pattern was 1.5 times stronger than the dump on the first pattern.

Now let's move to the recent price action
A flag formed after a run up, the flag was broken upwards and an over-extension move to $13800 happened. After touching $13800 the price dumped forming a similar start to the mentioned two patterns on the chart.
So, comparing the recent dump to the previous pattern(second pattern) the dump was roughly 1.9 times weaker.

Now here come the assumptions.
If we assume the run up will be 1.9 times weaker than in the second pattern, then BTC could reach $14200 as a fake breakout. (Remember $13800 is a really important level - highest price the traders have settled for on monthly, ever)
Continuing on if the price does indeed dump from $14200 that would continue the pattern.
Now if the drop from $14200 ends up being 1.9 times stronger than the dump in the second pattern, that would mean a 40 .85% drop do a price of $8500.

Now the reason why this is only a POTENTIAL SCENARIO is because we haven't even made a pattern to even consider trading it.
Bitcoin is fundamentally very bullish and it's hard to see a 40% drop in these conditions.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed it.

(the numbers in calculations are rounded for easier understanding)


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