We can assume that we are right at the middle of a 4 year crypto market cycle. why 4 years ? It's rather an important question.
Major investors who buy at the lowest prices, cash-out at ATHs and with the money they make, they do other businesses. Then with the income they make out of their new business, they invest back in crypto, at ATLs. then they wait 2 years, rinse and repeat, rekting new traders in the process.
I think BTC will almost touch the 200ma weekly again. that could be a real bottom. and then with some major money coming in crypto, we can expect $12k in the foreseeable future.
the lowest rsi I can imagine for BTC is 30. If you really want to be 90+ percent sure that you won't lose money in a trade, you should wait for $6k levels.
Comment:
next target : $3200