Not financial advise. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk.
Let's take a tour of 2018, shall we? This is going to be long, so I apologize in advance for the long read.
1. It's December 15 2017 and Bitcoin has just hit $20,000. The tensions are running high and everybody is dreaming about expensive cars and drinking their cognac. That's until the next 2 days happen where Bitcoin loses almost 50% in value. What on earth just happened? "It's just another dip!" BTFD they say. I've recently been introduced to some weird algos that trade based off of the 71.3 so I'm starting to pay attention to it. It took 15 more days, but Bitcoin is going back to the moon! It's now January 4 2018. Fresh into the new year. Bitcoin stalls out at $17250 and what happens next surprises everyone. Before we go there, let's look at that retrace and rejection. Take that in for a moment.
2. It's now February 6 2018. Anybody that knows anything about this market remembers that day clearly. Capitulation at its finest. Bottoming out at $6000. Still, everybody is screaming at the to of their lungs to buy the dip. This is IT! Best price to buy. I actually tend to agree from a short term perspective that buying at the bottom of any capitulation phase is a decent time to buy. What happened, though? Bitcoin has lost $14,000 in value. If you are new to trading you need to know that corrections that capitulate that much do not recover so quickly. The nice thing about this is Bitcoin actually increased in value by 100% from the bottom to where it was rejected. Rejected right at the 50% retrace from $17250 > $6000. Twice. By now surely people understand we're not recovering, right? Not anytime soon. All time highs are not in our near future.
3. Well, now it's April 1. April fools! Bitcoin is back to $6400 and is finding support. Front runners trying to buy the dip before it falls back to $6000. Really good impulse that gets rejected in the golden zone. 61.8% retrace. Again, rejected multiple times...
4. Now people are understanding the magnitude of the situation. We fall all the way through to June 24. But this time... $6000 breaks. Not for long, but it broke. We went down to almost $5700. All the people that are wanting to buy bitcoin cheap are buying in this zone. We get another impulse only to get REJECTED multiple times at the 61.8% retracement. I'm not making this up. You can see it for yourself!
5. Surely people aren't going to try and buy it, right? The next rejection. It's August 14 2018 and bitcoin again goes to $5850. This has gone long enough. The wedge has to break to the upside. It's going to happen this time, they said. Sorry to say, we initially got majorly rejected BEFORE we hit the 61.8. That caused sideways activity for what seemed like years but then there was a huge tether pump. Rejection at the 71.3 again. That's strange that the rejection was so close to that retrace target.
The first time we hit 71.3, we had a major move to the downside ($17250 to $6000). This time it was $7788 to $3215. The problem now, is we can't push above the 23.6 retrace. We have failed over and over and over. Recent attempts don't even touch the retracement target.
6. The day is January 17 2019. What does this mean? If we can't get any traction soon, and I mean soon, we're going to continue going down. We most devinitely are going to retest 3200 and if I'm being honest with you, we're likely going to break the 200 weekly moving average which is slightly higher than $3200 right now.
Bitcoin is not going to zero. For the long run, and I mean long run (1 year +), if you're looking for a long term investment, this is probably a decent price to buy. I'm not buying it yet. Not when things look so weak. If we happen to drop to $2900 or lower, it's that much more you're able to purchase. Some smart money bought around $4000, but was it really that smart? The 200 weekly would have been the smartest place to buy short term. Now that we're rejecting the 50 daily moving average, things are looking like we're going to continue going down unless we get some buy volume and soon.
Trade safely friends.
Let's take a tour of 2018, shall we? This is going to be long, so I apologize in advance for the long read.
1. It's December 15 2017 and Bitcoin has just hit $20,000. The tensions are running high and everybody is dreaming about expensive cars and drinking their cognac. That's until the next 2 days happen where Bitcoin loses almost 50% in value. What on earth just happened? "It's just another dip!" BTFD they say. I've recently been introduced to some weird algos that trade based off of the 71.3 so I'm starting to pay attention to it. It took 15 more days, but Bitcoin is going back to the moon! It's now January 4 2018. Fresh into the new year. Bitcoin stalls out at $17250 and what happens next surprises everyone. Before we go there, let's look at that retrace and rejection. Take that in for a moment.
2. It's now February 6 2018. Anybody that knows anything about this market remembers that day clearly. Capitulation at its finest. Bottoming out at $6000. Still, everybody is screaming at the to of their lungs to buy the dip. This is IT! Best price to buy. I actually tend to agree from a short term perspective that buying at the bottom of any capitulation phase is a decent time to buy. What happened, though? Bitcoin has lost $14,000 in value. If you are new to trading you need to know that corrections that capitulate that much do not recover so quickly. The nice thing about this is Bitcoin actually increased in value by 100% from the bottom to where it was rejected. Rejected right at the 50% retrace from $17250 > $6000. Twice. By now surely people understand we're not recovering, right? Not anytime soon. All time highs are not in our near future.
3. Well, now it's April 1. April fools! Bitcoin is back to $6400 and is finding support. Front runners trying to buy the dip before it falls back to $6000. Really good impulse that gets rejected in the golden zone. 61.8% retrace. Again, rejected multiple times...
4. Now people are understanding the magnitude of the situation. We fall all the way through to June 24. But this time... $6000 breaks. Not for long, but it broke. We went down to almost $5700. All the people that are wanting to buy bitcoin cheap are buying in this zone. We get another impulse only to get REJECTED multiple times at the 61.8% retracement. I'm not making this up. You can see it for yourself!
5. Surely people aren't going to try and buy it, right? The next rejection. It's August 14 2018 and bitcoin again goes to $5850. This has gone long enough. The wedge has to break to the upside. It's going to happen this time, they said. Sorry to say, we initially got majorly rejected BEFORE we hit the 61.8. That caused sideways activity for what seemed like years but then there was a huge tether pump. Rejection at the 71.3 again. That's strange that the rejection was so close to that retrace target.
The first time we hit 71.3, we had a major move to the downside ($17250 to $6000). This time it was $7788 to $3215. The problem now, is we can't push above the 23.6 retrace. We have failed over and over and over. Recent attempts don't even touch the retracement target.
6. The day is January 17 2019. What does this mean? If we can't get any traction soon, and I mean soon, we're going to continue going down. We most devinitely are going to retest 3200 and if I'm being honest with you, we're likely going to break the 200 weekly moving average which is slightly higher than $3200 right now.
Bitcoin is not going to zero. For the long run, and I mean long run (1 year +), if you're looking for a long term investment, this is probably a decent price to buy. I'm not buying it yet. Not when things look so weak. If we happen to drop to $2900 or lower, it's that much more you're able to purchase. Some smart money bought around $4000, but was it really that smart? The 200 weekly would have been the smartest place to buy short term. Now that we're rejecting the 50 daily moving average, things are looking like we're going to continue going down unless we get some buy volume and soon.
Trade safely friends.