Bitcoin is setting up an ultimate Trap
If you have come across this article, i will suggest that you pour yourself a favourite drink and put your favourite tunes on. Because you should take your time to fully understand what I am trying to say here. If you are just going to scan it quickly it's not worth it as you will be digging yourself a whole. And I will also point out that I am not trying to convince anyone here. This article should not be considered investment advice.
I will be using Elliot Wave theory, Wycoff Method with some classical indicators to do my analysis. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to post it below and i will try to answer them.
I believe that the recent high of Bitcoin in April was the end of the Cyclic Wave starting from 2009 to 2021 which lasted for 12 years. For those of you not familiar with Elliot Wave Theory i am putting the labelling guide here.
So as you can see the next higher degree motive wave level is called the Super Cycle. Even if we assume that we are heading for a Super Cycle to take BTC to 1 Million or any other unimaginable amount, we can all agree that it will not go up in a straight line. So after completion of any degree of motive wave a correction takes place. Correction in time or price or both. I am posting a pic below which will give you an idea how long it usually takes.
There are many types of corrections. To keep it simple, it usually last at least ⅓ of the time taken to complete an impulse. So when BTC is correcting you have to determine what wave degree is being corrected. The higher the degree the longer and deeper the correction. So in this case of BTC am calling a 65000 ATH a Cycle top, that means the correction should take at least 4 years in time before the next wave of higher degree. In terms of price usually any asset loose 50% or more. In case of BTC we have seen wave 2 corrections going as deep as 94%.
Now why am calling 64800 top in april the cyclic top -
Look at this chart.
So as you can see i have cyclic labelling in place with the flags showing the Top of the bull run. RSI hits peak in a wave 3 or wave 5. During all these bull runs the same thing happened.
Wave 1 to RSI hit 95 mark in the overbought territory. Followed by deep 90% correction taking it to oversold territory as wave 2. It took 1120 days to retest that wave 1 top.
Wave 3 is usually the longest and strongest. On the info label there it lasted 847 days claiming 12178%. It hit RSI peak 90.95. Followed by 82% deep correction taking rsi to oversold territory as wave 4. It is bit deep for wave 4 to go that low suggesting weakness in trend resulting in short lived wave 5.
Now Wave 5 lasted 840 days 1772% gains. It was a massive 57000 Dollar move in terms of price. RSI peak at 94.68. But we still have not gone into oversold territory. One would argue that we are still in subwave 5 of 5. Recent top was subwave 5 of subwave 3. But I will argue that for wave of smaller degree a 56% correction we had from April to June is way too big.
The Composite Man Theory
The Composite Man (Operator) attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.
If you did not buy BTC at 10000 or 17000 then you probably should not buy it now. You will only be buying it from the Composite Man at a higher price. You are being played psychologically.
And lastly, so what is this recent expansive move from 28000 to 62000 ?
There are multiple scenarios i have in my mind. The market is looking really attractive to the average retailer now. Sometimes thing looks really good and you only realise a moment later being brutally screwed. So next 1-2 weeks are very important. The bearish possibilities.
A combination including a Flat where B wave makes a new ATH then followed by another massive leg down to leave everybody clueless and screwed.
So I believe BTC will go back to at least 32500 in term of price. In term of time it will at least take 3 - 4 years going sideways up and down. I know there is lot of development going on and new ETF has been approved. But you have to think are the institutions are going to buy BTC from retail at a higher price. Or they will short the hell out of BTC to bring the price down and then buy.
If you have come across this article, i will suggest that you pour yourself a favourite drink and put your favourite tunes on. Because you should take your time to fully understand what I am trying to say here. If you are just going to scan it quickly it's not worth it as you will be digging yourself a whole. And I will also point out that I am not trying to convince anyone here. This article should not be considered investment advice.
I will be using Elliot Wave theory, Wycoff Method with some classical indicators to do my analysis. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to post it below and i will try to answer them.
I believe that the recent high of Bitcoin in April was the end of the Cyclic Wave starting from 2009 to 2021 which lasted for 12 years. For those of you not familiar with Elliot Wave Theory i am putting the labelling guide here.
So as you can see the next higher degree motive wave level is called the Super Cycle. Even if we assume that we are heading for a Super Cycle to take BTC to 1 Million or any other unimaginable amount, we can all agree that it will not go up in a straight line. So after completion of any degree of motive wave a correction takes place. Correction in time or price or both. I am posting a pic below which will give you an idea how long it usually takes.
There are many types of corrections. To keep it simple, it usually last at least ⅓ of the time taken to complete an impulse. So when BTC is correcting you have to determine what wave degree is being corrected. The higher the degree the longer and deeper the correction. So in this case of BTC am calling a 65000 ATH a Cycle top, that means the correction should take at least 4 years in time before the next wave of higher degree. In terms of price usually any asset loose 50% or more. In case of BTC we have seen wave 2 corrections going as deep as 94%.
Now why am calling 64800 top in april the cyclic top -
Look at this chart.
So as you can see i have cyclic labelling in place with the flags showing the Top of the bull run. RSI hits peak in a wave 3 or wave 5. During all these bull runs the same thing happened.
Wave 1 to RSI hit 95 mark in the overbought territory. Followed by deep 90% correction taking it to oversold territory as wave 2. It took 1120 days to retest that wave 1 top.
Wave 3 is usually the longest and strongest. On the info label there it lasted 847 days claiming 12178%. It hit RSI peak 90.95. Followed by 82% deep correction taking rsi to oversold territory as wave 4. It is bit deep for wave 4 to go that low suggesting weakness in trend resulting in short lived wave 5.
Now Wave 5 lasted 840 days 1772% gains. It was a massive 57000 Dollar move in terms of price. RSI peak at 94.68. But we still have not gone into oversold territory. One would argue that we are still in subwave 5 of 5. Recent top was subwave 5 of subwave 3. But I will argue that for wave of smaller degree a 56% correction we had from April to June is way too big.
The Composite Man Theory
The Composite Man (Operator) attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.
If you did not buy BTC at 10000 or 17000 then you probably should not buy it now. You will only be buying it from the Composite Man at a higher price. You are being played psychologically.
And lastly, so what is this recent expansive move from 28000 to 62000 ?
There are multiple scenarios i have in my mind. The market is looking really attractive to the average retailer now. Sometimes thing looks really good and you only realise a moment later being brutally screwed. So next 1-2 weeks are very important. The bearish possibilities.
A combination including a Flat where B wave makes a new ATH then followed by another massive leg down to leave everybody clueless and screwed.
So I believe BTC will go back to at least 32500 in term of price. In term of time it will at least take 3 - 4 years going sideways up and down. I know there is lot of development going on and new ETF has been approved. But you have to think are the institutions are going to buy BTC from retail at a higher price. Or they will short the hell out of BTC to bring the price down and then buy.
