thehoplite

Let's see if 1.35% drop hits intersect

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I'm a huge fan of projecting cycles and timing. As we know, timing tends to be everything when executing a trade. For the short trades, we should be well aware of the unlimited upside loss and how quickly a "sure thing" can turn sour. That said, this analysis uses the uses a number of TA textbook tools (3 T's) to gauge a move within a narrow band.
Tools:
Bollinger
Gann Fan
MA (8)
DPO (20)
Fib Time Zones

The Fib Time zones are extremely beneficial when they align to the support areas you're attempting to seek out before placing a short position. If you insist on making back-to-back trades using the same reference point, you can short and long using the same turnaround.

Here, I decided to align the troughs with the Fib Time zone. This allows me to see how close my DPO (orange verticals) comes to capturing the end of a cycle. There's a 3-hr span on this chart between them, which is not too bad.
Bollinger bands are also a great discovery tool to pair with cycles. We are concerned more so with how the price moves away from the average and how likely it is to bounce fro the walls of the outer limits rather than ride along them for extended periods of time.

Using the RSI , of course, we can see if these touched limits are at oversold points to verify a turn around. From here, it's real easy to see the direction it's going to go next. The last thing is timing. Direction + time + reference area completest the forecast.
Where the Fib line #5 intersects the the 1/1 of the Gann Fan trend, this can be a place that we project with confidence. All elements point us in this direction.

Lastly, When shorting, we want to put a stop limit on the second to last bar ( red). If you are using a greater amount of leverage to initiate the trade, use a more frequent bar display to get a finer-tuned look at where that fail safe is placed. Target is 9450. Obviously, this being BTC , it's simply serving as our example for comprehending the basics.

Comments

Don't you think it's going streight to 10-11k from here? It didn't properly retraced since 6700 and it seems btc doesn't care to stop.
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thehoplite djukic.nebojsa
@djukic.nebojsa, I could be wrong, but if I stay clung to what my tools are telling me, it serves better in the long run. You're absolutely right, though. There seems to be a lot of congestion out of nowhere, and it's gone beyond all historical data would provide. lots of surprises, if you will. However, I don't find it prudent to make more radical judgement, as the news may spread out and behavior fall more in tune with how well these tools begin to illustrate better and better with newer data written in. Very interesting point... I will give it a second and third look trying some alternative. I just don't think we will see 10-11k by tomorrow. Feel free to send me what you've got and we can share some thoughts. Thanks.
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