These are the days that try men’s souls.

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I haven’t done an update in a while, being content to watch.

The 50 day moving average has begun to angle down, showing that trend could very well reverse and head lower. I haven’t given up hope yet as the real battleground will be staying above the 200.

The 50 always shows trend, angling up, angling down. What you have to watch out for is if it flattens as trading a flat 50 is just whipsaw city. But once it trends down, it shows a reversal is taking place. Is this the end of the world? NO.

The 50 is always in flux and it eventually returns to angling up with any solid product, company, crypto. But what you’ll see with a 50 angling down is a rise in price to the 50 and then a push further down as the 50 becomes resistence where it used to be support when it angled up. This is also true for a 200 that has changed direction in angle.

In addition, you’ll notice that the MACD and stochastic are signaling weakness, both barely starting to angle down with the MACD histogram now below zero.

I want to be wrong here, but I think we are heading for another leg lower to 8000, and the 200 moving average is very strong support in that area where we will see a bounce. While I have not posted Elliot Wave or Fibs in this chart, those that are better than me at that have called a drop to that area for one final, big shake out of weak hands. Then from there we will have such an incredible risk to reward ratio that we should all be buying hand over fist.

Things are set to do all this and reverse upwards again come Feb around the 16th which aligns with Chinese New Year, a seasonal time when bitcoin is known to resume upward trends.

Even I am nervous at this point, but usually that means a bottom is in or on final approach.

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