BTCUSD
Analysis - Macro view:
After eye balling what appeared to be *either* a bear flag *or* a pennant breaking down, I had decided to play with some traditional TA targets. As is the norm, traditional technical analyis begins with the pole length. In this case, I have identified up to 4 different poles, which means up to 4 different target prices. I have outlined the poles in the graphic above, noted as A B C and D. The targets are calculated by subtracting the pole lengths from the "break" of the macro patterns. In this case, the "break" took place today at ~$3,850. Therefore, the targets are as follows (rounded up):
Note 1: This is all based on the premise that a macro bear pattern has broken and a continuation is occurring. In the event this is proven wrong, this TA is considered *void*. I would look at a daily close above ~$3,900 as a signal that this is no longer in effect.
Note 2: This idea of looking for lower lows is supported by an obvious lack of buyers (shown in the volume profiles) plus an "over bought" signal on the Stoch RSI.
Note 3: The bulls do have *some* indicators in their favor, such as the market wide "shorts" being at an unsustainable 3:1 ratio (shorts:longs) currently. Historically, this has led to a sudden and unexpected "pump". However, one cannot trade based on what's unseen.
Note 4: None of this is investment advice. This is for educational purposes only.
After eye balling what appeared to be *either* a bear flag *or* a pennant breaking down, I had decided to play with some traditional TA targets. As is the norm, traditional technical analyis begins with the pole length. In this case, I have identified up to 4 different poles, which means up to 4 different target prices. I have outlined the poles in the graphic above, noted as A B C and D. The targets are calculated by subtracting the pole lengths from the "break" of the macro patterns. In this case, the "break" took place today at ~$3,850. Therefore, the targets are as follows (rounded up):
- $2,300
- $1,700
- $1,550
- $ 950
Note 1: This is all based on the premise that a macro bear pattern has broken and a continuation is occurring. In the event this is proven wrong, this TA is considered *void*. I would look at a daily close above ~$3,900 as a signal that this is no longer in effect.
Note 2: This idea of looking for lower lows is supported by an obvious lack of buyers (shown in the volume profiles) plus an "over bought" signal on the Stoch RSI.
Note 3: The bulls do have *some* indicators in their favor, such as the market wide "shorts" being at an unsustainable 3:1 ratio (shorts:longs) currently. Historically, this has led to a sudden and unexpected "pump". However, one cannot trade based on what's unseen.
Note 4: None of this is investment advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Comment:
Idea was 100% invalidated after failing to break below $3100 across 2 weeks of attempts. In hindsight, the better/more macro play would've been to look for macro spot longs and not even attempt to short. Live and learn - never would even attempt a setup like this today.
Follow me on each of my platforms to keep up to date:
www.Twitch.tv/CryptoJack
www.Twitter.com/@CryptoJackLive
www.tradingview.com/u/Crypt0Jack/
www.youtube.com/@cryptojacklive
www.Twitch.tv/CryptoJack
www.Twitter.com/@CryptoJackLive
www.tradingview.com/u/Crypt0Jack/
www.youtube.com/@cryptojacklive