R4Z3D
Short

My Short Bullish Bitcoin Market Analysis!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello everyone!

This is my first short ( Bullish ) Bitcoin market analysis.

(I think everyone has heard about the "6th theory", it's a bit based on that)

My scenario:

Bitcoin will go down to 7,200$ levels, where we can find the support. After that we will see a huge jump up to 8,100-8,200$ levels (Fib 0.786). We will face some resistance there, so I expect is to retrace a bit down to 7,700-7,800$ levels. As you can see, I have drawn a green trend line there, that indicate a support.
I'm basing that support line on the previous support line, which is at the same level. If we look back to the last BTC pump, we can see that we went up, tried to break it, and after a day we broke it and held that level. From there we went up. We actually tested that support level for about 2-3 times.

(That's what I'm basing the green support level on)

So when we bounce from it, we will break the 8,100$-8,200$ levels (0.786 fib) and go up to the next Fib level, which is at around 8,500$ (0.618 Fib).
That's another resistance level which I think with this sentiment, we will be able to pow through it and go up to the 8,800$ (0.5 Fib) but then go down, possibly retest the 0.786 level or if there's volume maybe, just maybe even 8,500$ (0.618 Fib).

Now, here is my logic which we should remember:
1) The 6th theory. Basically, the theory goes that on every 6th of every months the way Bitcoin goes (up or down) changes. If this is true, then we should see a spike, up.
2) If we go down to lower 7K$ levels, it's good. Why? Because if we start from there, we will start "fresh". That's a big support line now for Bitcoin , and from there up (lower 7K$ levels) we will go up with more strength and better sentiment.
3) The MACD is high and it needs to come down, that's why I think we will go down to lower 7K$ levels, and we have seen BTC's RSI also that low, so that's not a problem. Which will mean more buy power and again, stronger push.
(Low RSI , Stoch RSI and MACD )
4) We are making lower lows. Notice how the low few months ago was just below 6,000$ level then 6,400$ and now around 7,000$. this means we are going up slowly but surely and are building up a good base. And so I think it's not that likely that we go below 7,000$.

Or we might not go back to lower 7K$ levels and just from this mid 7K$ level go up, which is also a possibility but I prefer that we do go back to lower 7K$ levels. Then we would have a better base and more momentum.

Thanks for reading my technical analysis , hope you enjoyed. BITCOIN
Comment: I will be updating this post as we go!

Wohoooo!
Comment: Taking a closer look at BTC.

Price as of now: 7409.00$
Trade closed: target reached: I see that we are slowing down, the length of the price is getting shorter and shorter. (1 Hour chart) Which means that the seller's steam is slowing down.
We might not reach our target 7,200$, which means we will break the resistance sooner.
Trade closed: target reached: Alright!

But as we can see, Bitcoin is getting back up.

A nice light blue (in my case :D ) candle.

That's on 4 hourly chart. 1 hourly will give us a bit more info, as we can see 1 big candle then we got held up for 1 candle and the another one.

But, I'm still a bit bearish, I think we will try to break it, get rejected and *THEN* when we try it we will break it up!
Comment: On the 1HR RSI/StochRSI we are oversold, that may mean that we are going to re-test the resistance level.

On the 4HR chart, the MACD is still in the +, Stoch RSI high and RSI is @ 47.

Imho 1) we are going to either drop down now
2) We are going to re-test the resistance and fail at it

The RSI sure is 47, and that's low. But we have been oversold like 30- and already been at 37 RSI, and so MACD in +, Stoch RSI highly oversold and RSI 47, just 10 points above the previous one, I think it's fair to assume that we are going down to the support level.
Comment: We just closed a dildo above the resistance line, I think we will go down and maybe, just maybe find a support on the resistance line itself.

But if a dildo closes below the resistance level, we will head down to the 2nd support level, mentioned above.

Comments

You dont think its possible to go sideways here and then go up ?
Reply
R4Z3D PringleDealer
@PringleDealer, I personally think that there's manipulation. If we take a look, there are huge pumps and then huge dumps. (One candle each) I think we will pump again because the person pumping it will wait for 9,000K$ or even 10,000K$ and then dump it again.

It is possible, but this is based on the 6th theory as well. So that's why I think we got 1-2 day(s) left and either we will go down (manipulation, FUD etc.) or as I mentioned. (Go up, but with different momentum)
Reply
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