With the break of 316.61 to the downside, all my counts point lower short-term. I am watching for a five wave decline from the 453.92 high where I will consider the possibility that a correction from the 1163 high is complete. I believe the entire decline from the top is forming Wave II of a larger five wave pattern. Not all data is present to show the rise up to 1163 as a large five wave impulse that forms the larger Wave I which is now being retraced. Once the Wave II , correction completes, this interpretation implies a larger upside (Wave III ) and great opportunity to be long.
1) Fibonacci targets (based on historical data) hit around 240
2) Ideally negative sentiment toward bitcoin's price holding up indicating a bottom.* I expect Bitcoin to behave like gold, as it is the gold of crypto-currencies.
*Most of the news for 2014 (Venture Capital investment, friendlier regulations and adoption by large corporations e.g. MSFT) is fundamentally positive for the larger scale use of BTC in the future.