Still watching original targets

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This price action still looks a lot like a year-long consolidation pattern. It looks and feels like a bottom is coming soon, but this may drag on at the $280 level for another week or so before we see the final capitulation. I really don't expect it to go below the lower blue line or the red long-term upward trendline.

We may get the dump soon and reach a bottom in the $220s for a short time, but it's hard to tell. Either way, this is a bullish pattern , so I will be expecting it to break up out of this triangle and possibly start a new bull market (finally!)

Right now, it's still acting bearish around $275 support, but I'm waiting to see what happens when we get to support in the $220s or somewhere around there. If and when we get another bear flag around $280s for a while, then I'll go ahead and short until we reach that level and then buy, depending on the price action. Watch volume for confirmation. We haven't had a large amount of volume yet, so this tells me the dump may not be over yet.

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UPDATE 5 Jan 2015:

A possible double bottom was invalidated, opening the market to further bearish action. This idea is still valid and may take another week to completely resolve.
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