It doesn't seem to be invalidated yet.
I'd much prefer share happy, views... but even apart from this count, there are things I see that suggest BTC's correction may not be over.
I thought I should share this correctional wave count by now, so at least if we happen to see some price movement like this developing, we may have some idea of what is going on with Bitcoin / Crypto markets.
For wave-A of my bear market correction count (of Dec 2017 till now), I see a potential , which is commonly the A wave of an .
We see narrowing price towards the end of this 5 wave impulse.
Also waves 1 and 4 are overlapping, as is expected of Diagonals.
For my Wave B, I see what could be a viable ABCDE (33333) structure.
I haven't really looked at other TA's charts and their bear market counts recently, but I think most have BTC as still actively being in D or E wave of a correction?
It's possible I may differ there.
Wave C - My wave 1 of an impulsive 5 waves down, appears very much impulsive to me, and not corrective as part of an ABCDE.
Speaking of which, there were some things with my wave-2 and subwave 2 of W3 I didn't like:
a) That Wave 2 looks pretty impulsive.
b) ABCDE are typically W4, not sure if they occur as W2.
However, I believe I see something that makes more sense:
f my theory that we have already started wave C of this bear market correction is correct, it looks viable that we've just completed an ABCDE of (subWB) of Wave 2 (larger ) of 5 down.
(Stay safe everyone!)
I gave my entry, BCH price touched exactly & fell.
Shifted laddered shorts a bit lower (filled avg 0.799 first, then filled more lower on rebound), as I noted weakness while nearing target range.
I let it run overnight, as I felt confident of this drop.
Also shorted XRP & BTC before drop.
(Was posted on Twitter, follow me there for more calls/updates):
I'm getting some mixed signals, so I'll wait for more decisiveness before placing next my orders.
Away catching up on some work till I see more clarity.
I exited new Short orders in profit on overnight drop.
Caution: BTC and most Altcoins appear to have completed most of their small up-push for the evening, could have a little more room, not much for most.
I think LTC & maybe ETH has a bit more Up room left than most, for the next hrs.
I don't like that BTC is moving this long sideways (causing Altcoins to do the same) which resets/reduces the Bullish momentum I saw them having for another small jump.
Litecoin was definitely in a stronger position earlier.
Maybe LTC still makes the move, but I don't like to take trades when I feel less sure about the probability.
Since I exit trades when I less certainty, I rarely take losses.
Made decent scalp profits on ETH though, an in out several quick trades since this post.
I believe that 100% of my scalp setups I posted since I've returned, has been completely accurate?
I exited this trade early though, as:
1) Had to get to sleep, couldn't monitor.
2) Didn't like the sideways/sluggishness, less certainty.
This BTC range may hold short-term, maybe overnight:
6590-6560 (Bitfinex) / 6555-6530 (Bitmex)
However, I do not see a Bullish setup going into tomorrow. Current position seems more likely to Drop than Pump.
6590-6560 (Bitfinex) / 6555-6530 (Bitmex)
It has done that so far.
I CAN'T guarantee how long it holds, but BTC is in an overall Bearish position at the moment.
I took Short profits on drop. Closing all orders.
I'm off charts for the night.
(BTC could drop more)
If it gets below 6520 (BitMex) / 6540 (Bitfinex), and doesn't pull back quickly... It can start falling a lot.
Below: 6420 (Bitfinex) / 6390 (BitMex)
= Game Over :/
Right now, BTC and most Altcoins appear Neutrally positioned on Bitfinex.
However, they look more Bearish on BitMex.
I don't see them doing any heavy Dump or Pump at least for the next few hours.
Small scalps while I wait.
In & Out quickly on sure (but small) moves, with Leverage, to slowly accumulate in this sluggish market.
Hopefully we don't have too much more waiting till the crypto markets really starts moving again.
(I'm away for a bit)
Haven't analyzed enough yet for targets (will be away catching up on some stuff).
(Altcoins seem dropping hard while I was writing this, got to check on orders, brb)
Missed that heavy BCH drop... darn. :/
I had them stacked up 1 point over last price Tanked like 8% in 1 minute!
I got in a decent bit of shorts in ADA & LTC though.
Will try to have a better look in a bit
(~4 days ago, with new data, I re-counted & improved the position of the small ABCDE).
If correct, we are currently on subW3 of subWC of subWB (ABC) of Wave 2 (larger ABC) of 5 down.
I hope most kept safe!
Even if my wave-count is correct, I don't feel certainty about the end target of this sub-wave C BTC may be on (showing ~5800 on chart).
If it were to be proportional to the wave-A (more common), it could end ~5600-5400.
If = height of Symmetrical Triangle it just broke, it could end ~6000.
I'm not trading right now based on an expected BTC target of ~5800. Too little data.
I'll let this drop develop & calibrate targets as we move along.
I did warn in advance before each of these drops over the past week happened.
I'll attempt to continue doing so, when available.
I'm not actively in a trade right now, waiting for more decisiveness from BTC.
Although it could well drop again here, I'm not comfortable shorting from this price.
If BTC does a pullback (without pump volume) to ~6400 (Bitfinex), I may consider shorting again.
(Shorted before the initial heavy drop + Shorted top of bounce, took profit on 5% move down with Leverage.)
I realized there was a good chance that BTC & Altcoins weren't going to drop any time soon (as we see happened exactly).
I don't like taking unnecessary risks.
Won't be surprised if it drops again, even if not below yesterday's low.
Not rushing in yet.
It may be possible for BTC to do something like this over next hrs.
I won't be here to monitor, so I can't advise as I normally would if something else develops.
Not a call to trade but something you can consider with own analysis.
Be cautious as further dropping can be pending.
It didn't look to be in position to make a drop for at least some hours.
However now... not looking so great.
Volume was too low to make any noticeable push up.
It does look increasingly likely to drop, at the moment.
I will try to update if/when I see a drop (or pump) about to come.
Note: Sometimes it's difficult to Secure my Orders + Post Update in time, before price starts moving.
I may be observing, waiting for confirmation that move is going to start, and have very little time before it does.
Although most Alts I'm watching (BitMex) don't appear to be in a very bearish state at moment & could have room to pull higher,
I really don't see BTC making a sharp jump short-term (couple hrs).
I got some very quick short scalps in at my earlier post and quickly closed,
but now I'd sit things out till there's a better setup.
No nice fluid moves at the moment and conflicting signs.
I'd stay out till I see better setups.
I'll be off for now.
That's what happened.
However, now, I see BTC likely making a more substantial move in under 24hrs.
Most likely scenarios I see:
BTC making a small upward break if it:
a) Does a swift dip & pushes up quickly.
b) Gradually climbs above current price (hrs).
BTC likely drops if it:
c) Gradually falls below current price (hrs).
All can prepare for larger moves to follow.
(I'm away for a while)
Gave how it may move, and the outcome.
b) Gradually climbs above current price (hrs) = Upward Push
I scalped Alts several times since + new Longs filled before rise.
All in profit. Not necessarily holding very long.
I only did Long scalps. Safer per my analysis, as I saw the gradual rise.
Didn't see BTC possibly doing any sudden sharp drop from there.
To drop from that position, it would have slowly crawled downward first, before accelerating.
(Away from Twitter/Here/PC for a bit)
I'm not expecting any overnight dump.
Strong chance that BTC spends most of that time above ~6335 (Bitfinex) / ~6215 (BitMex).
(Just a quick update as I'll be away)
BTC has held above the levels I gave thus far, however, given the price movement over the hours since, it does now have some ability to drop a bit lower.
Nothing to panic about. I still don't see any immediate dump.
However, be aware of it now having possibility to pull a bit below the levels I mentioned.
Take Altcoin positions into consideration, accordingly.
I'd feel Bullish confidence if BTC returns to & holds for a while above:
~6375 (Bitfinex) / ~6235 (BitMex)
Seems BitMex is more keeping down the price.
I posted that 13 hrs ago... & it looks like an hour or less ago (once 12 hrs passed), BTC finally started doing a bit of dropping...
I'm sitting out of any positions right now. Will wait for more clarity on BTC, and will try to update timely.
I updated 7hrs ago, that BTC was beginning to lose some bullishness, & closed my Altcoin Long positions at that time, for the while (was away from PC all this time).
>>"( ETH / Ethereum looks decent for a potential Long scalp )"
As I updated 7hrs ago,
BTC stated losing it's bullish opportunity to hold/move higher soon & could see a dip. I mentioned to take Altcoin positions into consideration (which would include ETH)
No heavy dump on ETH yet, but I'm out since earlier post, waiting for better setup.
At the time of my update, ETH was still at/slightly above the price it was from when I suggested it looked decent for Long scalp.
So lots of time to safely exit in Small Profit or Neutral Close, if you decided to.
It's possible that BTC drops to 6200-5800 range (adjust +/- 100 for Bitfinex / BitMex).
Doesn't seem highly likely that it breaks below that soon.
We "could" have a Bullish week(s) following.
Longing around that drop range looks like a decent opportunity.
Again, these are general thoughts for now, not precise targets.
I prefer update next Hourly/Daily trajectory based on fresh data.
I believe I observe what looks like manipulation on small time-frames (over many months), so there's risk trying to predict where price will be, weeks/months in advance.
Bigger player's can divert BTC's trajectory during hourly moves.
I got in a couple Short orders a little while ago before Alts started dropping. Didn't have enough time to update here.
Also didn't want anyone rushing in Market Selling in middle of drop, as that could be risky now.
Many may FOMO Short as BTC appeared to be dropping, and easily get Rekt..
It's fine and easy for myself to get in and out of these trades safely (already did).
But extra caution and confirmation is needed on any shared calls.
Current setup of BTC & Altcoins look like they could swing either way, given enough support/volume.
Best to wait for more clarity and better setup.
I got in just a few scalps, that will have to suffice than risking tricky plays.
(If BTC drops to 6200-5800, that does still look good for Long orders, btw.
But even attempting to drop there can take some hours, and I prefer not keeping orders open and unattended while away, when trading with Leverage.)
I'll be away for a while.
As said in last post, that was a dangerous place to be sitting in orders. Closed my shorts hrs ago.
I did keep repeating that "Long looks good" & "Could have a Bullish week(s)", but I preferred a safer entry (drop first), if giving public calls.
Thing is... I was really thinking of going Long, a while before it took off.
Once I saw it climb above 6350 (Bitfinex) / 6200 (BitMex), I could tell it wasn't going to drop & that pump was very likely.
I hesitated.. :/
That's ok, tricky play.
Always a next trade available soon. :)
I just saw BTC setting up for a strong up-swing, to reverse previous drop.
That's why I'm recommending day-traders to lock in profits on any sharp spike.
Note that this spike was not caused by Tether / USDT alone, however Tether is causing the massive price discrepancy between exchanges.
Because of extreme volatility, trading isn't safest at moment.
If it drops to Red zone and doesn't bounce back up quickly = Very Bearish = Very Likely Drop
If BTC gets into Green zone and holds there for a while (hrs) = Bullish
(I'm away for a while)
XRP, EOS, look better.
ADA, BCH, look ok.
TRX, not too confident on it yet.
Due to yesterday's wild movements, there is still risk in trading now, as we are not yet confirmed on BTC's next direction/state.
Just things are very slow now, it can drag on like this for some time.
I don't see BTC making any sharp movements right away at current position. Could take hours more.
Better than 0 for day I guess... :/
Altcoins as well could take some time to properly set up for a move. Typically they won't do anything significant unless BTC also does.
Not a good way to spend my time.
I did reduce my orders to 10% of original size, just to sit as placeholders... so I don't have to spend a lot of time setting them back up, if I do see movement coming.
Up 5% since point of call.
(I got some Longs filled in various Altcoins, just before and while they stated moving off.)
So be very cautious considering any trades here, as I originally warned.
The market is probably still affected by that extreme volatility from yesterday.
The market is very hesitant and more negative than positive, at least these Altcoin/BTC pairs I've been watching.
Movement is different to what I usually observe.
XRP at least did very nicely, a 7% push in minutes.
They (Alt/BTC pairs) got dealt badly yesterday when all USD pairs pumped hard. Likely still affected by that.
Technically, they were very much in a position to make a proper upward push, but there seems to be lack of confidence in most Altcoins at the moment.
I can't yet verify "Dump", as there's support just below, only 75-100 points below current price.
I see possibility of support not holding, but I'd have to observe in real-time to confirm.
(I'm off for now)
If spends most of the next 6-12 hrs below ~6400, increasingly likely that it drops.
I don't see chances of BTC doing any Surprise Pump from its current position.
More ability to Dump, but even that likely takes hours (if it will).
As mentioned 5hrs ago, I didn't see a chance for BTC to pump from it's position at the time. Daily candle closed and still no pump, as expected.
However as price movement progressed, I do see BTC increasingly in a position that could allow it to push higher.
I'm not confirming yet that a Pump is coming, nor am I ruling out a Drop.
Even if price does jump a bit higher it likely takes some hours.
Just giving a heads-up so anyone can prepare in advance.
Some risk in low-lying shorts at moment.
I'll try to update if/when I see a big move coming.
• I don't see chance of Surprise Pump in under ~12 hrs.
• If BTC doesn't return above 6445 (BitMex) (and hold above for 3hrs+) within next ~8-16 hrs, Highly Likely it drops.
• Possibility of Dropping sooner, but it doesn't look ideally set up for Drop yet.
If I were to Short, I prefer if BTC were to climb to ~6520 first. I'd stack shorts between 6500-6600 (might not get there though).
I'm not opening positions as I won't be on to monitor development.
• NO Surprise Pump in under ~12 hrs
• BTC did NOT hold above 6445 (BitMex) for 3hrs+ in the 16 hrs following = Highly Likely Drop
I'm taking profits on Shorts as I can't yet confirm immediate further drop.
I moved my BTC Shorts lower last night to catch that obvious fake-out/stop-hunt. Filled a nice bit of ETH shorts also.
Took profit on first move down, let it re-fill overnight then also shorted Altcoins like ADA & TRX.
Once price moves I'm Happy = Winning
(I'm away for a bit)
It's in a tricky spot at the moment, and I don't like betting with my investments without clarity.
It looks more Bullish on BitMex than it does on Bitfinex.
If I'm on charts at the time, I should be able to alert before a big move.
If BTC will jump, it will happen sooner. If it will drop, it will take longer to happen.
At most I may catch some quick Altcoin scalps if I see the opportunity (I did catch some decent Longs on ETH & ADA before bed).
I avoid trades I don't feel very confident about (and rarely take losses).
Yes this could cause me to miss some big moves,
However I much prefer see my BTC balance grow little by little:
+ve, +ve, +ve... after each trade,
than see-sawing up & down.
Big Losses are much easier than Big Wins.
Unlikely any 2% #Bitcoin move in the next 6hrs. I doubt even any 1% Jump or Drop.
I'll update again in some hours, or when I see volatility possibly coming.
BTC waited till exactly 6 hrs passed to start making a move. XD
On a more serious note...
I had a quick look, but haven't analyzed much, as I need to be off (so caution with this analysis):
It looks like BTC & some Altcoins can climb higher, especially once BTC holds above support at 6395 (BitMEX).
Potential upside targets (resistances) labelled on my chart.
(Again, this was very brief analysis, so don't take this as a trade call on it's own)
(I'm off for now)
I'd like to see BTC on Bitfinex get above 6620 (and hold for a bit, not just touch and drop).
Tether exchanges like these are more the draw-back at the moment.
BTC on BitMEX looks in safer territory, but the price disparity lately is causing some issue's with BTC's movements.
Would like to see it above ~6400 very soon (BitMEX), for further upward push (Long position).
Condition still hasn't improved yet on Bitfinex.
(I just woke, still sleepy. This was a super quick scan - Away for a bit)
Looks like BTC hit exactly to my target given in last chart: ~6460 @ BitMex.
(I wasn't watching charts before it took off, otherwise I may have posted & also went Long before jump).
The hours leading up to this spike were tricky, anyway.
I did catch a nice short scalp.
Seems Bitcoin climbed above 6400 (BitMEX) shortly after my last post & held above for hrs, enabling this jump.
It never stayed much below 6395 (which was the danger level I gave).
Instead of opening positions around current price (hrs ago), I estimated for some Altcoins where price could reach to if BTC did jump.
I stacked shorts in that range in case of spike & was able to safely catch a nice scalp.
If BTC were to drop instead, it wouldn't have been a surprise drop.
It would likely crawl below support, pull back & re-test as resistance (where I would signal/enter Short) before dropping.
Bitcoin's best scenario to avoid dropping, would be to get over 6445, and hold above that price for 4hrs+ (within the next ~20 hrs).
Per my last post 3 days ago, BTC did continue moving sideways within the yellow-box range I gave for the ~20hr duration, and did not get & hold above 6445 (BitMex).
It did drop as expected, over the following 2 days (hit exactly to my 6360 support),
but because the drop was so slow, Bearishness reset, allowing this recovery jump today.
(I got a lot of nice trades since last post (all wins). Didn't do any shorting today, as I saw that reversal coming.)
BTC current first line of:
I'll try to asses better & update later.
However, it does look like it could break below, possibly some time soon.
I managed to close my short orders (of 4hrs ago) in profit (ETH & BTC) at the very bottom, just before this pump happened.
I noticed an up-move coming, though I didn't though I didn't expect that sharp of jump.
Not super confident of entering this right now, in case it could be a fake-out.
There are some things about this pump I didn't like...
Would be wonderful if we got volatility & up moves in the next days. :)
I put only a cautious size, as I'd be away.
Took profit around bottom of drop, when I woke.
I'm in small profit in new short orders again now. May not hold long.
Example of how slow things are for now with crypto..
ADA moved completely sideways for 9 hours!! :|
(I'm not in ADA)
It is really tiring.. but I'm still slowly scraping what I can get each day..
Often just +0.25 to +0.5% on account with each small scalp,
trying to catch a few each day.
I've since been working getting the private group ready (as I get a lot of requests about it) you may apply here: https://adtrading.org/
(I'll resume BTC analysis soon)
Took very nice profit on this, but I admit.. it wasn't fun.. nor my best trade, lol. :p
Had to wait longer than I'd for exiting a scalp position.
Seems that it may have been a very extended sub-wave 5 of wave 3.
Some tips for avoiding losses, even if you under-estimate targets:
- Ladder Orders.
- Never have ALL assets exposed as open positions in market.
- Place some safe % as orders, add more manually as needed if target extends, WITH analysis to back up new potential target.
(Note: BitcoinCash has major news of an upcoming fork, this can influence price movement)
A little while ago I closed an additional x2 rounds of Short scalps on XRP,
x1 on ADA.
I'm considering XPR Long position overnight.
I'm expecting a bigger drop to come some time soon, so I'm placing a 2nd round of Shorts.
(SS: 1 of several earlier $XRP shorts)
I remind caution again, as the lack of retracement so far on several Altcoins isn't typical.
This appears to be the HIGHEST RSI levels on BCH since Nov 2017.
As mentioned in previous post:
(Note: BitcoinCash has major news of an upcoming fork, this can influence movement)
So I'll be away, going to rest.
On BCH, I think I count 5-subwaves just completed, an ABC may be in play before further drop.
Wednesday: 4.1% (so far)
So nice to have movement...
I took profit on my BCH & EOS shorts (prices fell, as I called in last update).
I'm now sitting in profit in new XRP longs.
I don't rule out further dropping, but I don't think anything very big,
maybe a 5th subwave if anything.
Ended day nicely. Account BTC Up:
My Crypto Group coming soon: https://adtrading.org/
We got the follow-up drop I mentioned. On most Altcoins I checked, it indeed looked like only a subwave-5 (smaller drop), at least so far.
On BTC however, the drop was larger than the previous one of 12 hrs ago.
(I've been paying more attention to Altcoins than BTC, for now).
Got my 2nd set of XRP longs filled while asleep (already closed previous XRP Long before sleep, in profit, on bounce).
I've now closed this 2nd XRP long in profit also.
Missed getting my EOS Longs filled by just a little...
I haven't analyzed any charts yet since waking, so I locked in scalp profits.
BCH / BitcoinCash dropped (over 10%) exactly to my target, given a day ago:
Easy 5-10% profit on trade (or 50-100%, if you x10 Leveraged). :)
(As many are asking, yes my private group is being worked on, and coming soon) :)
Other than some quick long scalps I did yesterday (all profit), I didn't sit in any Long positions, as I saw no confirmation of reversal yet.
I didn't analyze charts much yesterday, so I couldn't give as a "call", or set targets. (Had to catch up on some other things)
It was just my personal intuition to sit out for the while.
Things were still looking more bearish than Bullish to me, personally.
I posted that I'm taking profits, right around that last top on $BCH.
Price fell right back down (4-5%) near last bottom... shortly after.
Note: Testing out a new Chart Theme for my posts.
I mentioned about it here, with poll:
(I'll be off for now. I will analyze the markets when I'm back, in some hours)
How do I do my TA? How do I find my Targets? etc...
It isn't an easy question for me to answer, since my method is different and more abstract than regular TA.
(I haven't forgotten about answering, just I don't know the best way to answer)
I'll follow up and post the full text here when I get the chance soon,
but in the mean time, feel free to read the thread I posted already on Twitter:
Note: I am taking up some BCH Long orders at these current BitMEX prices.
0.0660 - 0.0640 (& laddered lower)
Not planing to long-term hold for now, just scalping until I see stability/reversal.
I remind again, I'm still busy today, so, very little analysis: DYOR for this trade.
Solid +6% bounce shortly after reaching my center target.
Nice easy trades for the day :)
I was away from charts, busy with stuff, but I set Alerts, Stop-Loss & Take-Profit.
More great calls to come soon: https://adtrading.org/
I just completed another quick 2-3% Long scalp on BCH.
I've been away again from charts all day (sorry, will be more active again soon).
I'm considering holding Longs on BCH & LTC overnight.
Might be able to catch a ~12% up move on BCH.
NOTE: I haven't done much Analysis for this trade, haven't looked around at Market Sentiment, News, etc.
DYOR if considering this trade.
Twiter Orders Screenshot: (Orders were laddered, filled right to bottom of last drop, I took profit right at top, while being away from charts most of the time).
~12% price jump for big profits, with little work.
My account up nicely for the day. :)
Easy, stress-free trading.
(I'm offline for some hours)
Thankful I got in & out of this trade right on-point for a nice & easy ~10% scalp (exited $LTC in profit at the same time).
I just woke to see BCH dumped 36% right after my take profit exit...
I Haven't looked at other TA/analysis recently, but last I saw all sorts of "moon" calls from top/popular analysts...