A new Crypto Bullmarket HAS already started....

When talking about Bitcoin or Crypto in general you usually will hear something like this from Traders/Investors that are bullish on Bitcoin: The Bitcoin halving every 4 years initiates a new bull market. By that logic a new Crypto bullmarket should start in late April of 2024, when the next halving is due, right? However, if I look at the price behaviour of Bitcoin prior to its last 2 halvings (2016 and 2020) I can clearly see that the actual bull market started 18 months prior to those halvings. Projecting this to the 2024 Bitcoin halving it would mean that a new bull market HAS already started as the markets bottom should have been end of October 2022 at around 18-20k... yes, we went still lower than that thanks to FTX, but up to now this theory still passes the test of time.

Another thing that, in my opinion, is aligning up perfectly: The FED interest rate cycle.... after now having higher interest rates (5.25 %) than the YoY US inflation (4.9 %) we should see interest rates staying stable (maybe there is 1 more hike coming in June 2023).... looking back in history after about 8-15 months the FED usually started lowering the interest rates again, which then initiated a shift from risk off assets to risk on assets (stocks & crypto). The shift back to a cycle of lowering interest rates will fall nicely together with the Bitcoin halving of 2024 and will probably fuel the bull market additionally.


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