When talking about Bitcoin or Crypto in general you usually will hear something like this from Traders/Investors that are bullish on Bitcoin: The Bitcoin halving every 4 years initiates a new bull market. By that logic a new Crypto bullmarket should start in late April of 2024, when the next halving is due, right? However, if I look at the price behaviour of Bitcoin prior to its last 2 halvings (2016 and 2020) I can clearly see that the actual bull market started 18 months prior to those halvings. Projecting this to the 2024 Bitcoin halving it would mean that a new bull market HAS already started as the markets bottom should have been end of October 2022 at around 18-20k... yes, we went still lower than that thanks to FTX, but up to now this theory still passes the test of time.
Another thing that, in my opinion, is aligning up perfectly: The FED interest rate cycle.... after now having higher interest rates (5.25 %) than the YoY US inflation (4.9 %) we should see interest rates staying stable (maybe there is 1 more hike coming in June 2023).... looking back in history after about 8-15 months the FED usually started lowering the interest rates again, which then initiated a shift from risk off assets to risk on assets (stocks & crypto). The shift back to a cycle of lowering interest rates will fall nicely together with the Bitcoin halving of 2024 and will probably fuel the bull market additionally.
Another thing that, in my opinion, is aligning up perfectly: The FED interest rate cycle.... after now having higher interest rates (5.25 %) than the YoY US inflation (4.9 %) we should see interest rates staying stable (maybe there is 1 more hike coming in June 2023).... looking back in history after about 8-15 months the FED usually started lowering the interest rates again, which then initiated a shift from risk off assets to risk on assets (stocks & crypto). The shift back to a cycle of lowering interest rates will fall nicely together with the Bitcoin halving of 2024 and will probably fuel the bull market additionally.