Possible trend shift, 61.8% fib holding, maybe mega inverse H&S
Lots to talk about with Bitcoin .
Most notably, we just broke north of the local downward resistance channel that we established about a month ago, and have begun to make our way back to $8,000. However resistance is proving strong in the high $7,000 range and we keep getting rejected. No surprise given recent performance. However if we stay above the local resistance line it puts in slightly bullish territory.
Also, potential big signal, is that we appear to have broken the bounce off the downward channel support line we've held since July and have transitioned to the long-term, upward, support line that Bitcoin has held for 5 years. This could confirm a massive trend shift where we begin to move upward for potentially months now.
If you've read my previous ideas you'll see that I'm a big fan of inverse head and shoulders for Bitcoin reversals. We've had two in the past month, but both have failed to send us back to $8,000. But now we may be seeing a massive inverted head and shoulders with the last wick down to $6,400 range being the head. I'd like to see another wick down to sub $7,000, but given the strength of support we've seen at $6,800 I'd be surprised if we plunge more, if we hold, that's a pretty solid confirmation of upholding the long-term upward trend. If we do break $6,800 with force, we may see another re-test of the downward channel support line, taking us into mid $5,000.
Finally, 61.8% fib is $7,227, a range we've held fairly well aside from a couple of sub $7,000 plunges (which had near instant rebounds to $7,200), if we maintain this baseline it could indicate that another, mega rally, is around the corner, as 61.8% fib support is generally a key range for Elliot Wave impulses (the "1,2,3,4,5" impulse), from my understanding.
In summary. Given the rejection of $7,700 we saw today and the recent market weakness, I expect another test of $6,800. If we hold upward trendline and form big inverted head and shoulders I'm bullish and anticipate 2020 being a great year for Bitcoin and other cryptos. If we don't bounce off $6,800 range and go into mid $6,000 I'm holding off until we test $5,000 range.
RSI on the 1D sitting a 50, could go either way.
I'm still long-term bullish , but sidelined until we either a) break the upward resistance channel that we've been under since July or b) hold support on the upward support line that we've held for 5 years. Personally, I'd like to test $6,800 and see strong resistance from there and then move up and re-bull.
Good luck!
Most notably, we just broke north of the local downward resistance channel that we established about a month ago, and have begun to make our way back to $8,000. However resistance is proving strong in the high $7,000 range and we keep getting rejected. No surprise given recent performance. However if we stay above the local resistance line it puts in slightly bullish territory.
Also, potential big signal, is that we appear to have broken the bounce off the downward channel support line we've held since July and have transitioned to the long-term, upward, support line that Bitcoin has held for 5 years. This could confirm a massive trend shift where we begin to move upward for potentially months now.
If you've read my previous ideas you'll see that I'm a big fan of inverse head and shoulders for Bitcoin reversals. We've had two in the past month, but both have failed to send us back to $8,000. But now we may be seeing a massive inverted head and shoulders with the last wick down to $6,400 range being the head. I'd like to see another wick down to sub $7,000, but given the strength of support we've seen at $6,800 I'd be surprised if we plunge more, if we hold, that's a pretty solid confirmation of upholding the long-term upward trend. If we do break $6,800 with force, we may see another re-test of the downward channel support line, taking us into mid $5,000.
Finally, 61.8% fib is $7,227, a range we've held fairly well aside from a couple of sub $7,000 plunges (which had near instant rebounds to $7,200), if we maintain this baseline it could indicate that another, mega rally, is around the corner, as 61.8% fib support is generally a key range for Elliot Wave impulses (the "1,2,3,4,5" impulse), from my understanding.
In summary. Given the rejection of $7,700 we saw today and the recent market weakness, I expect another test of $6,800. If we hold upward trendline and form big inverted head and shoulders I'm bullish and anticipate 2020 being a great year for Bitcoin and other cryptos. If we don't bounce off $6,800 range and go into mid $6,000 I'm holding off until we test $5,000 range.
RSI on the 1D sitting a 50, could go either way.
I'm still long-term bullish , but sidelined until we either a) break the upward resistance channel that we've been under since July or b) hold support on the upward support line that we've held for 5 years. Personally, I'd like to test $6,800 and see strong resistance from there and then move up and re-bull.
Good luck!
Trade active:
Pattern holding essentially. Buy orders still at $6,860.
Trade active:
Small pump puts us above local trendline resistance, for now. Still waiting to either a) break above 6 month resistance line at $8200-$8300 range, or b) test 5-year support line at $6,800 range. Until either one of those happen we're simply trading within the pennant; and bitcoin loves pennants. But lately has been declining at the end of pennants, however we may have this trend shift and if we hold long-term support this will be a bull-pennant break-out. Time will tell. Still have buy order in at $6860.
Comment:
Very clear head & shoulders pattern forming over the past 11 days also leads me to believe we'll probably see a move down here soon too. I don't think there will be enough force to break $7,000, but maybe.
Trade closed manually:
Broke $7,000, a few days sooner than expected, now we test the 5-year support. We hold here it's a good sign, buy-support also showing on the books too, but impossible to tell if spoofing or not. Closed buy order at $6,860, watching now. Don't want to "catch a falling knife" so to speak. If we break trendline we may see violent plunge. Would rather miss out on a few bucks and catch a rebound than buy and watch it tank for real. Looking to enter soon however....
Trade active:
Went in 50% @ $6,861. We are tapping the long-term 5-year logarithmic support line. Buy orders strong at $6800. Will see how we hold from here. No stop loss set yet....
Trade active:
Stop @ $6,780 w/limit at $6,770. If we break sub-$6,800 we're testing $6,500. Current price on Coinbase Pro @ $6,928.
Trade active:
Moved BTC stop up to $7,000 limit $6,990. No matter what I'm ending this play up. But given my chart prediction I'm long and expecting a bigger rally if we close the 6H candle bullish engulfing.
Trade active:
Anticipating, but not expecting, a test of $8,000 by Monday. If we don't get it may pull orders as a another sub-$7,000 plunge is probably likely. Went in on XRP (despite it being a "useless" crypto) and ETC with other 50% of portfolio (went in first at $4.35, caught a pump, then got stopped at $4.32, went back in at $4.58, (painful lol)). Upset about not taking full advantage of the (very strong) buy-order wall at $6,800-$6,840 for BTC, but also happy to be layering in, as the trend is still downward.
Trade active:
Still in, holding. Slowly trending up. Sell target $7,960.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Got greedy, pulled sell order at $7,960 as I felt it was possible we broke $8,000. Was wrong, got stopped out at $7,795. Still made 13.6% gain in 5 days on this play. Happy with that. Watching for either a) surge above $8,000 or b) support cluster around $7,500 or $7,000 to pull me back in. It appears we're about to break out of the 6 month downward channel and trend up long-term support. But until we do, it hasn't happened. Anticipating a pump to $9,000 real soon, but staying out until confirmation, as a full break-down is still possible.
Trade active:
Got back in this morning @ $6,870 after we had the bullish engulfing candle on the 1H. Setting stops soon.
Comment:
*Correction* - got back in at $7,870 this AM. Not $6,870.
