FIB STUDY to ATH Range ($152,292.62 to $298,074.00) by Dec. 2021

The PURPOSE of this Fibonacci Study is simply to point out the potential future All Time High (ATH) by December, 2021 if long term wave patterns play out somewhat similar, if Fibonacci Level Patterns repeat themselves and if Diagonal support and resistance level patterns are respected as well in the future based on current four (4) year pattern. I'm posting the chart again (below) for one to be able to view the chart as intended because the cover chart is likely to be scrunched up by the platform.

NOTE: The 3.618 FIB Extension Historical Pattern for the ATH.
NOTE: The 0.236 FIB For the Historical Bottom End of Distribution Period.
NOTE: The 0.382 FIB For the Wyckoff Spring to mark the beginning of our transition from Phase C to Phase D in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.
NOTE: The 0.786 and 1.0 FIB Levels as a MAJOR Historical Support and Resistance

I know I'm running behind providing updates to the usual pairs. I'll begin those updates shortly after getting a bite to eat.

Stay Awesome!

David

Comment:

I too am "skeptical" of us reaching those heights by December, 2021 as well. I actually thought $5k or maybe $9,500 tops was what we would have seen by December, 2017 but the market proved otherwise.

I apply the "Law of Diminishing Returns" to cryptos with a legitimate "utility" much different than I would apply it to stocks. Take Bitcoin for instance:

1. Bitcoin has a "fixed" supply.

2. The amount of new Bitcoin created "cuts in half" approximately every four (4) years.

3. As the price goes higher with less coins being mined every four (4) years, it requires less capital to keep the price propped up each day.

4. We have more investors in Bitcoin every four (4) year cycle to bring in more liquidity.

5. We have more retail investors mostly interested in HODL'ing. Which means less people willing to sell and more willing to hold.

6. Large Interest are coming into the space buying large quantities of Bitcoin for the purpose of long term "investment" purposes (10 years or more).

7. Central Bank FIAT Currencies are diminishing ever more in value every year; creating a phenomenon called, "Capital Flight." Which is the result of citizens losing "trust" in their countries Central Bank FIAT Currency and looking for other means of protecting their capital. Cryptos with a legitimate "utility" are experiencing growth in part due to "Capital Flight."

8. More crypto currencies other than Bitcoin are creating a fever for more investment capital into those markets.

9. Because of the way Bitcoin is designed, it will act like a dynamo in regard to profitability. And if you think about it; all the political, geopolitical, economical and financial factors currently at play in the world will feed this "dynamo" even more.

I do believe in "The Law of Diminishing Returns." However, Those returns will not even think about "diminishing" significantly until LONG AFTER MASS ADOPTION HAS TAKEN PLACE. Until mass adoption takes place, we can expect this "dynamo" to continue acting like a "dynamo."

I believe everyone will be surprised by how quickly and how high bitcoin goes in the very near future. My opinion of course.

Stay Awesome!

David

Comment:

UPDATE:

What fatal flaw is there in this chart by dave the wave? Let me see if anyone notices before I explain. twitter.com/davthewa.../1072441941390974982

Comment:

UPDATE:

Davethewave's chart was posted December 11, 2018. Does it really look like the price action played out flat along the lower boundary of his curved channel as forecasted? No... I'm not saying that to diminish Dave's work by any means. I'm simply wanting to point out the price action has gone up more sharply than he anticipated. He has us reaching the top with a Buying Climax in December, 2022. I personally believe it will be December, 2021 as part of the natural wave cycle of Bitcoin.

"The Law of Diminishing Returns" does NOT also mean it takes longer to reach a Buying Climax before falling into a sustained period of distribution. I agree with diminished returns over time. However, I do NOT agree with increased length of time to reach a buying climax before prolonged distribution sets in; as depicted in his chart.

In August, 2015 we went from $198.12 on Bitstamp to $19,666 in December, 2017. That is roughly 100 Times gain...

In January, 2019 we had a low of $3,322. If we went up to $300,000 in December, 2021, that would be roughly 90 Times gain...

Yes, that is a "diminished" return. I agree with that... What I do not agree with is the AMOUNT OF TIME to reach that high of $300,000 as shown in his chart. I have a lot of respect for Dave. I simply have a friendly disagreement.

I personally believe Bitcoin has wave cycles that play out over the course of approximately four years. With the first year being Distribution; the second year being Accumulation and the third and fourth year being multiple bouts of re-accumulation building up to a buying climax before starting over again with the first year of Distribution. One of the main reasons for this natural wave cycle of approximately four years involves the Bitcoin Block Halving.