reees

likely to test higher - where to take profits

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
it's anyone's guess whether we'll see a continuation of the bull market or we're headed for another leg down. but here's what i do know: we're most likely going to test higher levels before heading down further (particularly the neckline and bear trendline). for those who are already fully hunkered down for crypto winter, this is of little value to you. but for those of us who are still invested, this is extremely important; this is where you take profits.

"but...but.... what if the bull market continues and i've just sold everything?!"
(1) chances are prices will come back down for a retest and you can buy back in at or near the prices you sold at. don't fomo into a bad entry.
(2) don't ever sell everything (excluding scam coins and dumpy meme coins). i keep my long term/investment account in cold storage and it's a one-way street... crypto goes in, but doesn't come out (of course there are always exceptions)

there is always the possibility (albeit less likely) of another leg down before making it all the way up to retest the trendline/neckline. if you haven't already reallocated/taken profits in preparation for this possibility, you're in a pretty tough spot. if i were you, i'd start taking profits at the margin pressure levels noted on the chart, and absolutely take losses if price drops below the major bull trendline or the recent crash lows.
Comment: price broke above the bearish pennant, which is a good sign. volume isn't all that impressive though and there's some serious resistance ahead. i'm expecting we'll retest the top of the pennant and possibly one of the trendlines before making a real push for $40k+. i'm not calling it a breakout until we see a convincing bounce here.

Comment: just realized i somehow forgot to include the $42k-$43k resistance zone on this chart. that's a long established support/resistance zone, and should absolutely be considered with the other levels on this chart. in fact, it's probably the strongest resistance between here and the neckline. if you're looking for an intermediate target, that's a pretty damn good one.
Comment: 8 months of sideways?

Comment: my plan for a reentry (long)

Comments

Good work brother! I agree this is the probable play!
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reees C622
@C622, thanks bro! probability is my only friend in this crypto world
+1 Reply
what does 3x/4x mean? Does it mean that I can open a position when the price reaches those levels?
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reees DangTG1
@DangTG1, those levels are more for predicting where we expect margin buying/selling pressure to decrease/increase, based on the assumed behavior of leveraged traders. the assumption being that the majority of leveraged traders want their liquidation point protected below support (for longs) or above resistance (for shorts). so basically it's telling us where we can expect support/resistance.

for example, in this case i'm expecting resistance around $40k where 3x selling pressure increases and 4x buying pressure decreases (in fact, this already proved to be a strong resistance level last week, so a lot of that buying/selling pressure may have already played out, but i think we can expect more of the same)

+2 Reply
reees DangTG1
@DangTG1, as we speak, you can see it's currently been bouncing off the 5x long level (i.e. where 5x buying pressure drops off)
+2 Reply
DangTG1 reees
@reees, wow, thanks for your explanation, very clear and helpful
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reees DangTG1
@DangTG1, no problem. i'm obviously a huge nerd so i love this shit.
+2 Reply
salsaj reees
@reees, this is awesome mate, thanks for sharing. For the folks who want their liquidation level to be safe, I'm assuming they will continue to add to their position to make their line stronger or do they get to see other's who have placed their liquidation level, so power by numbers? I'm not familar with margins, researching it now, just don't like the idea of playing with credit lol but I do enjoy this nerdy stuff and making informed decisions! thanks again for the share
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reees salsaj
@salsaj, i don't use leverage either, and i wouldn't recommend it unless you're an experienced trader. crypto market is so volatile that i feel like you really don't need leverage to make money, even without a lot of capital (as opposed to forex markets etc). but to answer your question, i try not to assume too much about about the behavior of margin traders, aside from the basic assumptions about where buying/selling pressure is likely to increase/decrease. i haven't studied it, but i suspect you'll find a wide range of behaviors, similar to regular trading.
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too good and too easy to be true.
market its not so easy now.
you think you bought the dip and you w8 things to get normal and after there is another dip.

i dont think btc can brake 40-43k res.
only if facebook or someone big tweet btc can go up
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