Cryptopile

Bitcoin!! - please tread carefully!!

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi Traders. Such a rapid rise in price I believe to be unsustainable.

As you can see form the chart I have highlighted heavy resistance with a red box. This coincides with the .618 retraction from the ATH and also coincides with the approximate peak of the H and S from the dip. IMO the dip to $6000 was the bottom, but the market needs another downward dip to satisfy the bulls that it is safe to come out in force.

Bear indicators:
- 4 hourly RSI oversold currently, and since the ATH it has been producing lower highs. - see arrows
- MACD is also forming lower highs since the ATH .
- Horizontal fibs all have associated peaks and dips, and the resistance and upward trend of the bear flag is meeting at the .75 fib line (next and probably the last peak of the bear trend). This should lead to a party and a good hangover. The horizontal 100% retracement from the ATH coincides with the 10th March which for all intents and purposes falls on the 60 day cycle for lows of BTC .

The fall from the bear flag will be approx $5200 according to the flagpole (see yellow dashed line). At current levels of 10,200 it will get down to $5000 - I believe this to be unlikely due to the long term trend - blue dotted line and I can't see it falling below $6000. The bulls have a little more steam (although I suspect a little manipulation is going on). However should it fall to $5000, I would fear this to not be the end of the bear!

If BTC can get sneak higher to levels around $11,500 to 12,000 before dipping we will be looking to around $6300 to $6800 levels. This would be a good outcome, because it will mean a double bottom , a higher low, and once again coincide with the 60 day cycle
= game on...

Good luck out there

**This is not financial advice and not a trading recommendation. It is for educational purposes only
Trade closed: target reached: Shorting has begun - confirmation with reversal candle 45min chart. Lets see how far they want to short it. Next support 10,200. Could be forming right shoulder - see latest post.

Comments

IF that is a bear flag, it's a massive one...
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Cryptopile EspressoDopio
@EspressoDopio, Yes it is. It is could almost be a descending channel, which has an even higher chance of downside - around 73% compared to 68% with the flag. Thanks for your comment.
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