BTC 3 Year Trend Perspective

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2412 9 21
The chart is pretty large and was not possible for an integral             view. Dragging it offers additional informations. Besides the description text on the chart, would like to highlight also the uptrend and downtrend fib channels which offered great support and resistance on plenty occasions, which can be noticed better by zooming it in. Also, as the end of uptrend decided to choose the new low which happened to be around the OTE             of the whole 2012-2014 uptrend, which failed to bring afterwards a trend continuation and respectively new high, the June $680 representing the new lower high and longterm downtrend confirmation.

Update: after publishing it, some parts of text seem impossible to read:

The text with green background for the 260-350 price range:

"I see this range with many retraces, consolidation
and indecisions of the trend change. It will
also take some time till long term lagging indicators
will confirm the downtrend. Thus, breaking $260
will succede after a slow moving downtrend."

The text with orange background for 210-260 price range:

"After downtrend confirmation, the trend will
accelerate. However, the previous support and
resistances will mitigate its velocity."

The text with red background for the 120-210 price range:

" After breaking 210, fear will accelerate the
downtrend till high volumes panic selloffs are
reached, which will indicate us the low and end of "c"
cycle. After getting to a new low with panic selling, it
is advisable to start closing shorts into panic sell.
When we see on shorter timeframes new legs
with lower volumes and velocity, creating clear
divergences, we will have the opportunty to start
consolidating longs and ride the upcoming possible
swing up."

Good luck in trading!
This is pretty much the pattern I've been following. Question on my mind now though is whether current movement which should top the Jan high actually will..? Also new lows could be reached faster than this suggests as per last cycle.
Yes we will see, breaking the Jan top could create the needed volatility and exuberance to even spike through the downtrend line, but I doubt the current longterm setup is favourable to a reversal; I preffer to close all longs there and looking for longer term shorts. Concerning new lows, I highlighted that previous low's high volumes may signal the major downtrend may be close to an end, as it happened during the apex of the uptrend, but there is plenty of time till then, we will see how the price will react if it gets there again.
ditz BTC_Daily.Pips
Agreed, also rather suspect that cycle duration largely depends on persistence of current upswing. So far this one looks like it may be something between the 2 previous cycle tops. If and when it starts to dip with as you say lagging indicators catching up - could then form an ideal longer term short setup imo
+1 Reply
finally, a btcusd chart i can agree with...
+1 Reply
BTC_Daily.Pips YungFinance
thanks, glad to hear!
There's no way I'm going to be able to read that small print.
+2 Reply
BTC_Daily.Pips MoonTrader
Sorry for that, did not expect to get so small after publishing, first time I use text on chart. Copying it now in the description
+1 Reply
JamesBowler MoonTrader
just expand the chart ^^
+1 Reply
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