BTC_Daily.Pips
Short

Plenty of Downside Potential (Price and RSI cycles)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
After a new low at the end of bear cycle, market corrects in 2 waves to 61.8% from the previous bearish cycle. The bearish cycle in this chart begins after 3 requirements are fullfilled:

1. Break the bullish trendline of the correction from previous bear cycle
2. Break down the last month's daily EMA so that it becomes resistance
3. RSI breaks solidly the 40 level

In order for these requirements to be fullfilled, it can take more or less time, like it is highlighted in the elipses and it can be seen as an inflexion zone between the cycles.

We are now in the first leg down in the new bearish cycle and based on previous price action a couple of new legs can still be expected. We can notice in the past that the break of 40 RSI level never comes alone.

This chart can be watched together with the previous similar published chart:

Bitcoin Changing next Gear soon on the "New Low" Highway

All in all, it seems like we are still in a danger zone for prospective longs or BTC purchases, perhaps it would be wise to wait to see how it develops or wait for a breakout above 240s for the bulls waiting to buy or add another btcs             to their holdings.

Thank you for the time reading and watching this published idea and good luck to you all!
dekanifisher
2 years ago
I'm thinking below 100? You?
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BTC_Daily.Pips dekanifisher
2 years ago
Could be, during panic selloffs you never know :)). For now 120-140 range is my preliminary target, we will see if we get there how it will develop and market will react.
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ChartArt
2 years ago
Look at what your RSI shows you. Price is moving up from a local low, not down.
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BTC_Daily.Pips ChartArt
2 years ago
Hey, ChartArt! Thanks for the comment! I'm affraid I don't quite understand what exactly do you mean. Which low do you mean and what exactly do you mean about RSI?
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ChartArt BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
I mean the RSI on your chart and the last low of the RSI on your chart. The low where you drew a black line. The price is moving up more and more away from this local low, not down to it.
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BTC_Daily.Pips ChartArt
2 years ago
You mean from previous low in 210s to 220s? I hope I am talking about the same thing. Retrace also occured in similar stage on 17th of august's 550s low to under 600 during next 2 weeks, or previous similar phase 17th of december from the local low of 300 to 320-330s during next week. We just got in the sub 40 RSI region, price can get to new lows with RSI fluctuating in the 15-40 range in this phase, next step will be breaking $210 level, creating a new leg to lower low and also accelerating the downtrend, after previous upswing's major support gets broken like in the following charts (about new level of trend acceleration):

Bitcoin Changing next Gear soon on the "New Low" Highway


also here is visible with the line at 210 (we are also here in the intermediate phase atm):


BTC 3 Year Trend Perspective
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TheShakeOut
2 years ago
Yes, it is still week. It should test the 147 lows.
Bitcoin is still in a downtrend
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BTC_Daily.Pips TheShakeOut
2 years ago
Yes, agree. Nice chart! Thanks for sharing!
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