BTC_Daily.Pips

Important Swings to watch

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
6500 38 36
After a decent period of time, decided to share next possible targets and scenarios on long term on trading swings. I have renewed the prior longterm channel,which I posted half a year ago, with the next levels for Fib Channel, as they have given some great entry opportunites ever since, shorting all this on the trend at these level has been very porfitable. We are now sitting on a new level. Breaking the 220$ will be bullish for a new bullrun which could have a target of almost 250$, or after some retrace even to 320', which is a major resistance, and would be too risky for profits to wait to break it either, better close longs if getting there, in both cases, after some bearish signals or breaking levels back would be a good moment to find good shorting entries and tracking them back to the downtrend to even new lows. Next, should it fail now to break 220, going under 200 would mean to find a good entry if the price retraces slowly, almost on sideway, or even better, when breaking the violet line level, and retracing under it, would be a good short entry for getting to new lows. In all cases, new lows create panic, best is to close shorts during panic, and buying little by little when panic selling is starting to lose velocity.

I have posted this chart, as it gave me during last months some great shorting opportunities and wanted to make an update of next to come, especially for swing trading entries. All in all, the downtrend will still continue and without any doubt this does not look as a reversal, you will have good chances to buy it even cheaper in the next period to come, so it is strongly adivisable to avoid panic buying if it spikes instantly.

Best regards and good luck in trading!
Alex T.
2 years ago
nice chart
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BTC_Daily.Pips Alex T.
2 years ago
thanks!
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Alex T. BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
no, thank you!
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PonziUnit70 Alex T.
2 years ago
I like it too. When the channel you renew acts as either ascending support (or the cliff) it becomes a good timing tool.
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BTC_Daily.Pips PonziUnit70
2 years ago
thanks, agree with that ;)
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afbitcoins
2 years ago
Nice analysis
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BTC_Daily.Pips afbitcoins
2 years ago
thanks ;)
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Update: road map and RSI scenario of new low retrace:

snapshot
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BTC_Daily.Pips BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Update: First swing should be done soon, target hit:
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BTC_Daily.Pips BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Update: all targets hit, approached also the longer term downtrend, looking for the retrace soon:
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
So, we have had a breakthrough, based on the new exchange to be open in 10 hours, this should continue till that point, after that selling would be wise, similar with ltc getting on huobi moment, the downtrend should continue after that
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
360 a target to watch soon
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
The lunar nonsense buy panic created the spike above setted top, at the moment of the coinbase exchange launch, shorted at 290', keeping them till next target of 220 in the next 7-10 days. So far, besides the panic spike to 300, continuing the next swing to 220, the spike giving a good entry exactly at the coinbase exchange launch. The previous madness also squeezed some massive short out of the market. Cheers!
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BTC_Daily.Pips BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
snapshot
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
one more dip, closing the rest of shorts and going to buy for next swing up
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
down swing target hit, swing up next, 260 first target, 320-340 possible, if it gets there, that is the teritorry where you close all longs available and find reversal signs and good short entries
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Update: some patterns to watch now, good Risk/Reward here:
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Watching next swing to possibly develop
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Very good place to bounce, on the channel line and 61.8% fib retracement, fits well on the chart
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Tin.Foil
2 years ago
up to 258, down to 180, back up to 420 for the hover.. I like the chart!
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BTC_Daily.Pips Tin.Foil
2 years ago
thank you! the next target of this swing imo is 260, possible 320-340 where all the longs should be surely closed, then to new lows, doubt we will see 400s during next swings...
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
the market has just given direction, breaking the channel line gives a good opportunity to short after retracing and sideways under the line for the recharge for further down.
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Channel holding, just an ideea of a crab testing the trendline again
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BTC_Daily.Pips BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
more detailed picture, just an idea:
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
another butterfly target for the possible swing
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Alright, if we break up this chopy region up here is a ABCD or possible butterfly (adapted a bit because of long wicks' noise) with target to 360. If you bet on breaking up, try to fill longs at the bottom of this triangle, to have a decent Risk/Reward for the case it breaks down. It is just a scenario, looks hard to believe, but if it gets there, shorting there would be low Risk and high Reward entry, one of the best trades of this quarter for a long term short, adding on the way down to new lows!
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Related published chart to these swings:
The 1 Year Story of BTC and what is it telling us now
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id10tothe9
2 years ago
great stuff!
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BTC_Daily.Pips id10tothe9
2 years ago
thank you! :)
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
We are now in a neutral zone, if you want to short, wait for the price to break down this channel line we are at and short the slow retrace touching it from the downside. If you are are bullish, long on it with stop loss under the line for another bull run that may still happen, whether testing the resistance again or break it even further. Either way, you get a great Risk-Reward Ratio. Cheers!
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ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Good morning SergiuFala,

Hope all is well with you today, Sir. I'm doing fine here. I've been up all night. Other than that, I'm still kicking. I'm used to staying up all night from playing Texas No Limit Hold'em.

I'm curious... When you say, "down this channel," could you clarify? Maybe with a 6 hour or even a 12 hour chart? Or you choose which chart you think is best to clarify the channel you are referring to?
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BTC_Daily.Pips ProwdClown
2 years ago
Hello, David! Glad to hear that ;) I am now in watching zone, my longs have sl almost at break even, waiting for the market to pick direction to configure my strategy for next move. To answer your question, I have decided I will publish the channel, so you can always watch it it entirely, with the entry points and an explanation and approach to how to trade it, how I have used for the past half a year and still using it (has been giving excellent entries on the downtrend ever since), together with the strategy of the next scenarios. I am a bit busy now, about midnight CET I am sure it will be ready. Hope you will like it :D Best regards!
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ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Hi SergiuFala,

I took a nap for 1.5 hours. I will be taking another nap shortly for about 3 hours. I have my alarms set and volume up as loud as it will go... lol.

Thanks again for the reply, Sir. I understand what you mean by "watching zone." Hence, the alarms set. Thanks for publishing the channel soon. You have me interested about what you have going on. I really look forward to watching it.

I understand about being busy. I have lots going on myself. Busy doing corporate taxes right now. I'll probably have them finished by the end of February to give to my accountant. They aren't due until March 15th. Personal taxes due on April 15th.

Well, I'm going to try to get a bit more shut eye before continuing on taxes.

Best regards, sir!

David
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Jameve ProwdClown
2 years ago
I think you need another nap.
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BTC_Daily.Pips ProwdClown
2 years ago
Published it
Strategy of adding shorts during this downtrend
, hope it helps ;)
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
So, we broke the resistance to confirm the last swing to be bullish, consolidation above just above it is beneficial for a perspectice solid surge. So testing the downtrend line is still in process. A zoomed in view, with the 30EMA, which I like to use when watching the trend on 4h timeframes and some price levels to watch :
snapshot


On daily, we are chopping at a fib level:
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All in all, the swing up to around 350 to test the downtrend looks still solid. Cheers!
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jangseohee
2 years ago
327-335?
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BTC_Daily.Pips jangseohee
2 years ago
Sorry, just noticed your comment. Yes, still on schedule, breaking new level in 300s would bring a lot a volatility and create a wick even above, but definitely your targets are a good place to close longs, like under 340. Cheers!
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