Bitcoin Future Levels

I was having a conversation with a trader on my social media and he was sharing future projections of Bitcoin BTCUSD with a parabolic curve. This is easy to draw using past major lows going higher and also with the fundamental force of the Halvening presumed to begin in earnest now or soon.

My feedback to him is that perhaps the obvious thing to do now is draw a parabolic price trajectory... but the market rarely does the obvious. My trading thesis, though wrong at present, has been that the Halvening is so expected and planned upon to the utmost... it will defy consensus like market events tend to do.

As a technical trader... I see price move from level to level respecting them partially or fully. Having stopped at one level for the ETF launch, then then conquering it, it is now at the 52.1 level. The next being 55.4 (weak but notable), after that 64.9, and conquering that level price will be very much guarantee price will be pulled up to the ATH.

Seen is the prior ATH break, one week after, before the last parabolic rise. When there is a big, fully closed bullish bar, from the prior ATH, parabolic projections may commence. Doing so before that is premature and can lead traders to overleverage the "sure thing".

Sure, waiting for something like this runs the risk of FOMO, but it is far more probable thing to bet on.

Comment:

As an update to emphasize this point of price "respecting" levels. Within days of writing this price is moving off the noted level of 52.1k. This was a past swing high during the 2022 bear market. The market (or traders) know this level exists and trade around it.

Price is taking a breath from going up here and traders that are specialists at using price extreme signals, like RSI, can take advantage of such periods trading in that particular way.