jiamijiang
Long

Don’t head for the hills just yet

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The Gist

-BTC price action breakdown through the symmetrical triangle convergence lines on the daily
-BTC price action also breaking down through the 100 D SMA
-Look to find support at $9,448 (0.382 FIB level)

The Lowdown

The delta between the US 10Y and the 2Y Note is now at its most negative difference since 2007. Before markets came rambling down and before Madoff became an infamous household name. To spice things up a bit, BTC just breached the bottom convergence line @ $10,039 of the symmetrical triangle pattern formation that started back in June towards the downside (refer to my Medium article yesterday for more info on this symmetrical triangle pattern ) and is now trading at $9,554 as of 13:17 UTC . But just hold your horses for now. Things are not all that bad for BTC at the moment.

The Technical

Based on my last recent article about the symmetrical triangle formation pattern coming to a tight consolidation, although I was optimistic about seeing a breakout towards the upside with a PT around 15k, I did not rule out the possibility of a breakdown in price as we have seen in an earlier symmetrical triangle pattern this month. If a breakdown were to extend, I envision support at around $5,407. Now some critics did challenge that short TP @ around 5k, but don’t forget that 50% price drops have occurred NUMEROUS times in BTC’s price history.

For further support that prices still have potential to the upside, the Fibonacci Retracement tool (taken from the high back in Dec 17 to the lows of Dec 18), there is support at the magical .382 level (Figure 1) hovering around the price of $9,448, which is where prices are close to at the moment.

And if you want to think long term like a true HODL, take a look at the weekly chart and you will see prices still above the 21, 50, and 100 SMA .

The Conclusion

Although it seems as though this symmetrical triangle formation is coming to a close with a breakdown towards the downside, the Fibonacci tool shows great evidence of support at around $9,448. And I still hold my TP PT @ $15,057 if the bulls get back on their feet. Just because one gloomy indication is setting off alarms, you also need to look at the other indicators available. Just because the yield curve is becoming more inverted, the unemployment rate is still at historic lows. Let’s keep pushing.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @crypto67sauce
Comment: fib .382 breached. look for further price depreciation. you win some. you lose some.

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