Update (Feb 9 Idea): $11,800 Gap-Fill by March (Mid-End of Mo)
BTCUSD
https://www.tradingview.com/u/TheBitcoinChartGuy/PUluIVQh
About a week ago I posted an idea suggesting that a break of the parabolic channel would lead to a short-term correction, possibly to $8,500-$8,600—the 38.2% Fib Retracement level (see URL above and linked idea below). I stated that I expected a Weekly Higher Low to form somewhere between $8,600-$9,000, and that was where I would be looking to re-enter, which would be towards the bottom of leg 4 of the Elliot Wave curve. My outlook has not changed. However, I have become more aggressive, targeting the $9,000—$9,600 range to start scaling in and adding to my longer-term positions.
The Price Levels I am looking at now are $9,400-$9,500, which may be an area where we see a bounce and possible continuation of Leg 3 of this particular Elliot Wave curve. A break below this level would confirm, for me, that we are on Leg 4. At which point I will be looking to the $8,700-$9,000 level for a possible Weekly Higher Low, however, I would not be surprised if we saw a long Weekly tail down to $8,000—$8,200. Why? Because fear reigns supreme over the inexperienced. Additionally, Coinbase just recently added Margin Trading, which has already led to some nasty tails in both directions, and I expect that to continue as those new to Margin Trading continue to lose their lunch money to the school-yard bullies (smart money, whales, the more experienced).
Remember, Buy Fear and Sell Greed. Unless you are HODLing for the long run, you should always position yourself so that you can capitalize on big moves in either direction. This means a constant rebalancing of your positions. Think Overweight, Underweight, and Neutral. If you were trading on the daily timeframe and you hadn't sold any BTC yet when price was over $10K, you were probably overweight and should have sold some. If this is you, learn from it and don't make that mistake next time. Blood can be your best friend if you don't get too greedy when everyone is bullish and take profits when they come. "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet.
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