Thought it time to record my thoughts on the direction of the market, as usual using Bitcoin as the marker. Inherently this could be considered a poor marker to use since depending on your alt holding they may diverge away from BTC price action, but in general I think most consider it a useful point of reference.
Currently we are in a down trend, and whilst it might not be a bear market in the sense of a multi-year crypto winter, there is definitely downwards pressure since November (Im sure this is news to no-one).
Where are we?
Currently trading at ~$40k with what could most positively be described as sideway movement.
Where are we going?
As someone who is naturally bullish its easy to say were going up. Of course that is the direction we will take at some point, the question is when, and the when is usually the most difficult (often impossible) thing to work out. In my opinion, the play here is to simply wait and plan. Bitcoin could move upwards at any point from here. We just had a bounce from a major support, a typically bullish move. But bulls recently failed to follow that up with a move to any meaningful support, and so we are feeling a little lost again from here.
Whats the plan?
Quite recently I sold off a small portion of crypto assets in profit, on the basis that a move to the downside could be a good buying opportunity. It was enough to give buying power, but not so much that a move up wouldnt still be my preferred route. Waiting now is best, to see which direction we move. In my opinion if we are to continue downwards, $38k and $30k are excellent buying opportunities to take, with risk reward based on the above MA's giving excellent opportunity to bulls. That said, a drop below the 2 year MA has seen spikes downwards which could take us even as far as $20k before aggressive buying moves in. These previous spikes are highlighted.
1. "hope" that price goes up from this support, but prepare that the support will fail.
2. set increasingly aggressive DCA buys from $35k - $25k on the basis that this is likely in extreme oversold range. RSI could give indication in combination with MA's mentioned
I would find it very strange to see Bitcoin below $20k based on what fair price currently seems to be (based purely on moving average, there is no true marker for fair value of BTC other than the absolute low of the previous cycle of $3k).
Quote;
"please do not short. Even if you’re right, you’ll likely fail to time the top and blow yourself up.
When you lose, everyone will celebrate your demise and dance on your grave while they are getting rich.
It will make you sad. Even if you win, no one will like you, and you’ll lose long-term. I don’t make the
rules. Just here to help."
Messari Report / Ryan Selkis @twobitidiot
Currently we are in a down trend, and whilst it might not be a bear market in the sense of a multi-year crypto winter, there is definitely downwards pressure since November (Im sure this is news to no-one).
Where are we?
Currently trading at ~$40k with what could most positively be described as sideway movement.
Where are we going?
As someone who is naturally bullish its easy to say were going up. Of course that is the direction we will take at some point, the question is when, and the when is usually the most difficult (often impossible) thing to work out. In my opinion, the play here is to simply wait and plan. Bitcoin could move upwards at any point from here. We just had a bounce from a major support, a typically bullish move. But bulls recently failed to follow that up with a move to any meaningful support, and so we are feeling a little lost again from here.
Whats the plan?
Quite recently I sold off a small portion of crypto assets in profit, on the basis that a move to the downside could be a good buying opportunity. It was enough to give buying power, but not so much that a move up wouldnt still be my preferred route. Waiting now is best, to see which direction we move. In my opinion if we are to continue downwards, $38k and $30k are excellent buying opportunities to take, with risk reward based on the above MA's giving excellent opportunity to bulls. That said, a drop below the 2 year MA has seen spikes downwards which could take us even as far as $20k before aggressive buying moves in. These previous spikes are highlighted.
1. "hope" that price goes up from this support, but prepare that the support will fail.
2. set increasingly aggressive DCA buys from $35k - $25k on the basis that this is likely in extreme oversold range. RSI could give indication in combination with MA's mentioned
I would find it very strange to see Bitcoin below $20k based on what fair price currently seems to be (based purely on moving average, there is no true marker for fair value of BTC other than the absolute low of the previous cycle of $3k).
Quote;
"please do not short. Even if you’re right, you’ll likely fail to time the top and blow yourself up.
When you lose, everyone will celebrate your demise and dance on your grave while they are getting rich.
It will make you sad. Even if you win, no one will like you, and you’ll lose long-term. I don’t make the
rules. Just here to help."
Messari Report / Ryan Selkis @twobitidiot