The Great COVID Candle: A thing of the past or a looming threat?
So here we are sitting at almost ATH... but I'm not cheering, and I still wont be if we have a breakout.
I'll elaborate:
As much as I'd like to say this is just about Bitcoin, for 2 examples the same scenario presents itself in markets like DOW Jones and S&P 500, the 3 have recovered from what I'm calling the COVID scare and are sitting at ATH levels (near ATH for BTC). "BTC is decoupled from other markets" is something I hear frequently, in my opinion, nothing is decoupled. Though we try to understand anyways, the world is extremely dynamic and factors beyond 1 persons possible knowledge goes into the fluctuation of prices. This is why having multiple large assets line up into the same awkwardly timed push to significant all-time-highs is alarming to me while we sit in the biggest economic hardship most people will see in their lifetimes. Is it not odd that the markets fully retraced what some people are calling the "COVID crash" before COVID has even been mitigated properly? Remember that nothing is guaranteed in the markets or in real life, including getting an *EFFECTIVE* vaccine which is what people need to remember when trying to justify bullishness with the fact we have vaccines in human trials already.
Some information on the vaccines to remember:
1.) 2 of them are 2-phase vaccines and you have to come back after some time to get the 2nd shot for it to be effective.
2.) It has adverse side-effects that are considered "unpleasant".
3.) These vaccines are not for the weak (people at risk of death for COVID). So only vaxx'ing the people who are considered at risk is not an option.
4.) The oxford vaccine is behind the others and not much data has been gathered on it in comparison to the others although it doesn't require 2 separate injections.
5.) There is a possibility that people do not come back for the 2nd shot due to unpleasantness or whatever other reason.
The wildcard in the formula is DXY, what happens if DXY makes a run to the trend line that starts from 1986? A COVID solution might just set up BTC and the rest of the markets for another wave down after getting crushed if DXY decides to make an untimely run. Of course, once the trend line is hit it should be very bullish for BTC and I look forward to that day, as should most crypto traders/investors. Just remember that a complacent market is an especially dangerous market to be involved in and it is seeming overly euphoric in most crypto groups I'm a part of. As of recent, the ratio of people laughing at any comments I make on the fact we simply "COULD" see a 3k wick is alarming to me and reminiscent of 2017 euphoria.
TLDR; There is a ton of uncertainty in the future with COVID which is ultimately uncertainty with the global economy. Vaccines are being worked on but still nothing concrete that will be a guaranteed solution... yet the markets are fully recovered from what people called the "COVID dump" and are sitting at ATH levels. Be cautious, the markets are not reflecting the real economic state of the world, and certainly not of the USA. This can get ugly very quick.
Thanks for reading!
I'll elaborate:
As much as I'd like to say this is just about Bitcoin, for 2 examples the same scenario presents itself in markets like DOW Jones and S&P 500, the 3 have recovered from what I'm calling the COVID scare and are sitting at ATH levels (near ATH for BTC). "BTC is decoupled from other markets" is something I hear frequently, in my opinion, nothing is decoupled. Though we try to understand anyways, the world is extremely dynamic and factors beyond 1 persons possible knowledge goes into the fluctuation of prices. This is why having multiple large assets line up into the same awkwardly timed push to significant all-time-highs is alarming to me while we sit in the biggest economic hardship most people will see in their lifetimes. Is it not odd that the markets fully retraced what some people are calling the "COVID crash" before COVID has even been mitigated properly? Remember that nothing is guaranteed in the markets or in real life, including getting an *EFFECTIVE* vaccine which is what people need to remember when trying to justify bullishness with the fact we have vaccines in human trials already.
Some information on the vaccines to remember:
1.) 2 of them are 2-phase vaccines and you have to come back after some time to get the 2nd shot for it to be effective.
2.) It has adverse side-effects that are considered "unpleasant".
3.) These vaccines are not for the weak (people at risk of death for COVID). So only vaxx'ing the people who are considered at risk is not an option.
4.) The oxford vaccine is behind the others and not much data has been gathered on it in comparison to the others although it doesn't require 2 separate injections.
5.) There is a possibility that people do not come back for the 2nd shot due to unpleasantness or whatever other reason.
The wildcard in the formula is DXY, what happens if DXY makes a run to the trend line that starts from 1986? A COVID solution might just set up BTC and the rest of the markets for another wave down after getting crushed if DXY decides to make an untimely run. Of course, once the trend line is hit it should be very bullish for BTC and I look forward to that day, as should most crypto traders/investors. Just remember that a complacent market is an especially dangerous market to be involved in and it is seeming overly euphoric in most crypto groups I'm a part of. As of recent, the ratio of people laughing at any comments I make on the fact we simply "COULD" see a 3k wick is alarming to me and reminiscent of 2017 euphoria.
TLDR; There is a ton of uncertainty in the future with COVID which is ultimately uncertainty with the global economy. Vaccines are being worked on but still nothing concrete that will be a guaranteed solution... yet the markets are fully recovered from what people called the "COVID dump" and are sitting at ATH levels. Be cautious, the markets are not reflecting the real economic state of the world, and certainly not of the USA. This can get ugly very quick.
Thanks for reading!
Comment:
I cant post charts on updates yet, unfortunately. This is an easy enough one for people to see on the daily without me having to show it visually, potential Head and Shoulders forming, if it plays out and any support holds there is still potential to bust through 20k afterwards but the momentum on the way back down along with the eventual trend line touch then doom of DXY still has me looking at the same targets even if it doesn't get hit this go-around, I have the target box stretching out to 2022 for this reason. Not much has changed other than that.
Comment:
After some adjusting on my fib retracements I realized that I accidentally pulled this fib retracement on the 4hr and then switched to the daily prior to making this post, it changed the 4.236 to an irrelevant level and I'll be making a post in a few minutes with the adjustment along with the confirmation of going past 20k, which changes where I can pull some more fibs from.
Comment:
1 last update for this post before I possibly stop updating this post, I forgot to mention that yet again the markets hardly reacted to the news of the 2nd strain of COVID. It's absolutely insane that we have tacked on another year or more of guaranteed global government intervention and rules that hurt the economy as a whole and yet people still carry on like they aren't scared that a flash crash could take their life savings from them. Don't be that guy, I won't feel sorry for you.
