PRICE ACTION
Is the 1W parabola finally capitulating? Or will the short-term timeframes give bulls confidence for another rally?
The 5m chart has seen a sharp cliff edge movement down, with the majority of RSI action over the last 30 hours being on the lower half of the range. Volume is slowing though, with the current burst of action being significantly lower than this time yesterday.
The 4H chart probably shows the most important noise right now; with RSI coming down almost into the oversold territory. Last time RSI was this low; price was below $10k. With candle bodies offering support down to $10.8; and wicks finding bounces at $10.3 – there is enough here for bulls to be able to build a strong argument for a hidden bullish technical signal.
The 1D chart is also aligning with the bulls, which can add to the context for the shorter term 4H bulls as well. Price is currently back in the middle of the rising channel, which is where we like to see a good majority of the price action to be occurring. Additionally, the 28D moving average is tucked just below the centre at $10.8. We can now see the 4H has historical support at this level and there is also a moving average trend support at this level too.
The counter to the bullish shorter-term view remains the parabola on the 1W chart – which is now currently showing 2 long upper shadows from attempts to break $13000. Interestingly though, if we apply a low-high fib overlay; we get some really interesting data. Last weeks candle technically gave the retest of 382; and a 618 extension prints almost perfectly with the ATH. Maybe the parabola is just a matter of not seeing the forest for the trees...
OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX)
Long: 1.10 Days
Short: 0.25 Days
RELATIVE STRENGTHS
ON BALANCE VOLUME
KEY PRICE AREAS
Resistance: 12000, 12500, 13500
Support: 10865 (28D MA), 10000, 9000
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
Is the 1W parabola finally capitulating? Or will the short-term timeframes give bulls confidence for another rally?
The 5m chart has seen a sharp cliff edge movement down, with the majority of RSI action over the last 30 hours being on the lower half of the range. Volume is slowing though, with the current burst of action being significantly lower than this time yesterday.
The 4H chart probably shows the most important noise right now; with RSI coming down almost into the oversold territory. Last time RSI was this low; price was below $10k. With candle bodies offering support down to $10.8; and wicks finding bounces at $10.3 – there is enough here for bulls to be able to build a strong argument for a hidden bullish technical signal.
The 1D chart is also aligning with the bulls, which can add to the context for the shorter term 4H bulls as well. Price is currently back in the middle of the rising channel, which is where we like to see a good majority of the price action to be occurring. Additionally, the 28D moving average is tucked just below the centre at $10.8. We can now see the 4H has historical support at this level and there is also a moving average trend support at this level too.
The counter to the bullish shorter-term view remains the parabola on the 1W chart – which is now currently showing 2 long upper shadows from attempts to break $13000. Interestingly though, if we apply a low-high fib overlay; we get some really interesting data. Last weeks candle technically gave the retest of 382; and a 618 extension prints almost perfectly with the ATH. Maybe the parabola is just a matter of not seeing the forest for the trees...
OPEN INTERESTS (BITFINEX)
Long: 1.10 Days
Short: 0.25 Days
RELATIVE STRENGTHS
- Micro (5m): Oversold
- Short Term (4h): Weak
- Mid Term (1D): Setting up Hidden Bullish(?)
- Macro (1W): Overbought
ON BALANCE VOLUME
- Mid Term (1D): Falling
- Macro (1W): Flat
KEY PRICE AREAS
Resistance: 12000, 12500, 13500
Support: 10865 (28D MA), 10000, 9000
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
Price broke through the support and is now testing for support around the yellow line. Interestingly, from the former low at beginning of July, we are forming a hidden bullish RSI divergence (pink line).
Price needs a further 6% pullback to invalidate the divergence - at which point the RSI would be significantly oversold anyway...