BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Further development of the market may look like this. If we consider the last wave of growth and price correction, then we see that the market was able to roll back to almost -82% percent (in the current situation it may be around the level of 3600). 4800 is a good support, but nobody canceled the opportunity to break through the levels below. As a rule, Fib 0.786 resistance acts as a reversal range, but the price tends to often go lower for a while, we observed a similar phenomenon in 2015, and we can also observe it now. The fractal pattern of movements is a good guide for further understanding of the development of the market. You should not panic, such drawdowns are noticeable in the entire history of the formation of the graph. Such situations are not the end, but only the opportunity to catch an asset at a low price. Control emotions, share risks and be prepared for the most unexpected turns. At the moment we have a huge oversold RSI , a record low; we can bounce and move up, but pay attention last time the same time we came back down after the rebound. Thus, we have a chance to get a rebound, but with a further decline and after another oversold start to build an upward movement, perhaps lingering for some time in the sideways. Or, if during the bounce, the market will get a good volume and support of large players, then the breakdown of the orange downtrend line will give the scenario of a faster growth wave. Looking at the scheme of the psychology of the market cycle, it is very likely that we have passed through panic and anger and are now at the stage of depression, after which the market begins to form a new cycle, again increasing its value.
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So touched the RSI level of record minimum of 2014. The market is too oversold, now it’s worth lowering the price even lower is too much effort, it is much easier to rise above. We are also approaching a long-term uptrend line, which may well be a magnet for the market, but also tight support at the same time.

The situation resembles the anomalous growth of the cue ball last year, only the other way around, if then we reached new peaks regardless of the indicators, now we are doing the same only down. The price is pushing lower and lower, we are seeing panic sales, remember, we recently wrote that it was these situations that give the whales the opportunity to quietly open positions, as well as yesterday, that: the end, but only the ability to catch an asset at a low price. Control emotions, share risks and be ready for the most unexpected turns. "

The graph often reflects the psychology of the crowd; we constantly observe purchases during growth and panic plums on declines, which only amplifies the amplitude of price fluctuations. Just like buying a hayah doesn’t do any good, so the drain on loy gives the same result. Since we broke through the 4800, if there is no fixation above this mark, then going to the 3000 marked yesterday on the chart is very real, again look at 2015 on the chart above. No one wants to believe in it, but as practice shows, it is quite possible. What to do ? - Do not panic! Remember when the BTC price, having reached its maximum, flew down (seemingly unexpectedly for someone, but in fact quite reasonably), and traders who opened positions at this peak price received only a negative result and great damage. Then she was guided by greed, and now fear provokes to merge and form a panic sale, but a hike down to a peak can look just like a peak at the top, with a sharp reversal after. If it succeeds for some time to approach 3000, then this will obviously not be for long, and the discharge in this range will be equivalent to a purchase under 20,000. Control emotions, manage risks, consider all options for possible development.
Comment: #BTC
Despite the fact that the market can be strongly manipulated, if you look at BTC on a larger scale, then based on the possibility of a fractal price movement, we can get a noticeable increase, but you shouldn’t expect to form a wave to new price records, the downward trend can still continue. From this we can conclude that it is a bit dangerous in the altos. For those who keep deals in alts open, we recommend raising your stop orders as high as possible. A critical moment can be observed in the event that the price of a Bitcoin drops to around 4000. The safest solution in the current period will be to observe a lower time frame. The last wave down almost hit 0.786, now we can see a good volume and pulse switching on a 1 hour time scale. If this area will support the market, then Bitcoin has good chances to go up to the previous levels. But do not forget about the whales that can manipulate the market in their own interests. The manipulator puts pressure on the news about the postponement of the launch of Bakkt and is waiting for a new wave of plum and this news came out exactly when the market found its bottom and began to rebound bitcoin
Thank you for the idea! As for me, I still think about Sell for BTC (it's my thought of the previous week - and for now too):
Excellent analysis, thanks! I came to the same conclusion already quite a while back.
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