BTC saw a bounce on the back of the grayscale vs SEC case dismissal news narrative to 28.1k in August. This is similar to that of the XRP case news and there has been a fade of both narratives after the initial pump returning most or all of the gains back to the market. Bears still seem to have a grip on the BTC throat for now despite the indices of the general markets showing continued signs of strength.
The monthly close was weak seeing a downturn of the 9 and 21 EMA which isn't a healthy sign for bulls. However, the DXY is in the process of creating a new lower high as well so all may not be doom and gloom and core PCE figures and unemployment suggestin sticky inflation but not worsening.
The rejection from 28k created a nice minor abc retracement to the 1.618 fib extension arguably a minor wave 4 into minor wave 5 impulse to the downside. With that in mind it is likely that the current low will be broken sometime in September and current projections suggest 24.2k - 24.6k as a main area of interest. A bounce from here would be an opportunity for a spring event after taking liquidity below the currently equal lows on the daily time frame. A move below 24.2k starts to encroach on Wave 1 which is an invalidation signal for this count from a typical elliot wave rule standard.
If 24k is broken there is a chance for a quick wick to 23345 and if there is a good move up from there that could be a possible low, however, if price is sluggish then 22k is the next obvious retracement zone.
I don't see a major breakdown from here although if price goes below 22k it invalidates the structure and would suggest this retracement is a Macro 2 wave. That would be very early in the cycle and would require a long slow bleed into the halving. From a monthly perspective that would show significant weakness for this cycle as the monthly 9/21EMA's are yet to cross to the upside which has happened in all previous cycles prior to the halving. A retracement of the bear market to the 0.5 fib at 32k shows underperformance compared to previous cycles that have hit the 0.786 retracement fib prior to the halving.
My main view right now is that September will see a test of people's resolve with a breaking of the current lows, however, if price remains above 22k and ideally 24k then I would anticipate the potential for a final wave 5 impulse to the upside prior to April 2024's halving which will complete the macro wave 1 of this bull cycle.
The monthly close was weak seeing a downturn of the 9 and 21 EMA which isn't a healthy sign for bulls. However, the DXY is in the process of creating a new lower high as well so all may not be doom and gloom and core PCE figures and unemployment suggestin sticky inflation but not worsening.
The rejection from 28k created a nice minor abc retracement to the 1.618 fib extension arguably a minor wave 4 into minor wave 5 impulse to the downside. With that in mind it is likely that the current low will be broken sometime in September and current projections suggest 24.2k - 24.6k as a main area of interest. A bounce from here would be an opportunity for a spring event after taking liquidity below the currently equal lows on the daily time frame. A move below 24.2k starts to encroach on Wave 1 which is an invalidation signal for this count from a typical elliot wave rule standard.
If 24k is broken there is a chance for a quick wick to 23345 and if there is a good move up from there that could be a possible low, however, if price is sluggish then 22k is the next obvious retracement zone.
I don't see a major breakdown from here although if price goes below 22k it invalidates the structure and would suggest this retracement is a Macro 2 wave. That would be very early in the cycle and would require a long slow bleed into the halving. From a monthly perspective that would show significant weakness for this cycle as the monthly 9/21EMA's are yet to cross to the upside which has happened in all previous cycles prior to the halving. A retracement of the bear market to the 0.5 fib at 32k shows underperformance compared to previous cycles that have hit the 0.786 retracement fib prior to the halving.
My main view right now is that September will see a test of people's resolve with a breaking of the current lows, however, if price remains above 22k and ideally 24k then I would anticipate the potential for a final wave 5 impulse to the upside prior to April 2024's halving which will complete the macro wave 1 of this bull cycle.