Hello everyone,
It seems counter intuitive that right before the halving the price may dip. Though the world is as irrational as it's ever been, nothings off the table. The chart explicitly tells us, that the bears are winning at the moment and there aren't many ways of looking at the price action that gives the bulls an advantage. Believe me I've tried. The main issue is that BTC has not been able to reach the relevant cycle median line of the long term uptrend channel (thicker dashed line). If it fails to break through the smaller downtrend cycle median line (the green line in the smaller cycle downward channel) and reach the the median line we may get a correction to 5.5k.
Trade setups would be:
Short term seller at 7250 (with a very tight stop of 0.5-0.7%)
Long term buyer at 5.5k
If bitcoin does manage to break trough and reach the long term cycle median line after a few days, the situation would need to be reevaluated. We could also go sideways, but in these times I doubt it...
It seems counter intuitive that right before the halving the price may dip. Though the world is as irrational as it's ever been, nothings off the table. The chart explicitly tells us, that the bears are winning at the moment and there aren't many ways of looking at the price action that gives the bulls an advantage. Believe me I've tried. The main issue is that BTC has not been able to reach the relevant cycle median line of the long term uptrend channel (thicker dashed line). If it fails to break through the smaller downtrend cycle median line (the green line in the smaller cycle downward channel) and reach the the median line we may get a correction to 5.5k.
Trade setups would be:
Short term seller at 7250 (with a very tight stop of 0.5-0.7%)
Long term buyer at 5.5k
If bitcoin does manage to break trough and reach the long term cycle median line after a few days, the situation would need to be reevaluated. We could also go sideways, but in these times I doubt it...
Comment:
Well the bulls managed to find the strength to atleast reach the median line. Which is a welcome sign, meaning the market is definetely not ultra bearish. There are some meaningful divergences on the TOTAL crypto market cap index that are somewhat worrysome. I'll adress those further in another idea later. At the moment let's celebrate the recent accomplishment.