Here is my long term view on BTC. I will explain why my long term view will always be bullish and what we can expect from now.
Let's start with the halving itself. Every 210000 blocks (approximately every 4 years) the halving occurs. The block reward will be cut in the half. The current block reward is 12.5 bitcoins and will decrease to 6.25 bitcoins. This event is wrote down in the code and cannot be changed. Why was this done? Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency. As a result, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly rare and the price will rise.
Predictable Monetary Supply
Bitcoins Supply can be predicted because of the halving event. This is very powerful because you know the current inflation rate/future inflation rate, circulation and how many bitcoins are left to be mined. The halving events will occur till there are no bitcoins left to be mined.
So the inflation rate will always decrease and this is why i am always be bullish on bitcoin.
www.bitcoinblockhalf...-inflation-chart.png
And because of that the supply is predictable you can predict the future price of bitcoin..
How is that possible?
This is possible with the stock to flow model. You can view the live chart here -> digitalik.net/btc/
The stock to flow model shows where the bitcoin price actually should be.
What is stock to flow?
The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. The higher the number, the higher the price.
How does this affect the price?
As previously mentioned, it is not possible to copy or forge Bitcoins, and the total supply is strictly limited. All transactions are written in blocks, i.e 'the blockchain', and nobody can spend coins that belong to someone else's bitcoin address. A Bitcoin address is akin to a bank account in which you can make deposits, but without providing access to the all important private keys that are required to spend its contents. That is where "scarcity" comes into play. The dictionary definition of scarcity is when something is difficult to come across in nature or in the lab; very similarly to precious metals. Once something becomes scarce enough, it can be used as a money. Stock to flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
Copied from their Website.
Another reason of my longterm bullish view is because of the current corona situation.
The fed is printing an unlimited amount of dollars and this will not stop soon. I believe that the impact of corona will hit very hard and this will be positive for the bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The dollar(and all other currencies) will get weaker and life will get more expensive as a result of the inflation. Did you now that before the year 2000 you could have bought a wendy´s hamburger for 1 dollar? OR 1990 you could have bought a gallon of milk(3,78 liter) for 1 dollar?
This game will not stop soon and people will worry about their money. Once they know about all the positive aspects of cryptocurrency, they will invest their money into crypto.
What we can expect from now?
We finally now see the correction we all waited for. This is a very bullish sign for bitcoin. Why do i think so? Because every bullrun needs a healthy correction. Otherwise the foundation of the current uptrend is not healthy and would lead to manipulation which would lead to further downmoves.
We are still in an uptrend and we don´t need to worry about the current price.
I want to see now a breakout and retest of the current downtrend on the weekly chart. This would confirm my shortterm bullish view.
We could still go lower in shortterm!
We could even go lower in short term view! Which would lead to perfect LONG opportunities! I would not even mind if bitcoin goes down again to 4k or even lower, i would be happy to buy bitcoin so cheap!
Always trade without emotions guys. Buy bitcoin when others are selling. And sell when others are buying.
What do you think about the future price of bitcoin and cryptocurrency?
Do you agree with my view?
Let me know in the comments.
Thanks for reading,
stibo 🥦
Let's start with the halving itself. Every 210000 blocks (approximately every 4 years) the halving occurs. The block reward will be cut in the half. The current block reward is 12.5 bitcoins and will decrease to 6.25 bitcoins. This event is wrote down in the code and cannot be changed. Why was this done? Bitcoin was designed as a deflationary currency. As a result, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly rare and the price will rise.
Predictable Monetary Supply
Bitcoins Supply can be predicted because of the halving event. This is very powerful because you know the current inflation rate/future inflation rate, circulation and how many bitcoins are left to be mined. The halving events will occur till there are no bitcoins left to be mined.
So the inflation rate will always decrease and this is why i am always be bullish on bitcoin.
www.bitcoinblockhalf...-inflation-chart.png
And because of that the supply is predictable you can predict the future price of bitcoin..
How is that possible?
This is possible with the stock to flow model. You can view the live chart here -> digitalik.net/btc/
The stock to flow model shows where the bitcoin price actually should be.
What is stock to flow?
The 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. The higher the number, the higher the price.
How does this affect the price?
As previously mentioned, it is not possible to copy or forge Bitcoins, and the total supply is strictly limited. All transactions are written in blocks, i.e 'the blockchain', and nobody can spend coins that belong to someone else's bitcoin address. A Bitcoin address is akin to a bank account in which you can make deposits, but without providing access to the all important private keys that are required to spend its contents. That is where "scarcity" comes into play. The dictionary definition of scarcity is when something is difficult to come across in nature or in the lab; very similarly to precious metals. Once something becomes scarce enough, it can be used as a money. Stock to flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
Copied from their Website.
Another reason of my longterm bullish view is because of the current corona situation.
The fed is printing an unlimited amount of dollars and this will not stop soon. I believe that the impact of corona will hit very hard and this will be positive for the bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The dollar(and all other currencies) will get weaker and life will get more expensive as a result of the inflation. Did you now that before the year 2000 you could have bought a wendy´s hamburger for 1 dollar? OR 1990 you could have bought a gallon of milk(3,78 liter) for 1 dollar?
This game will not stop soon and people will worry about their money. Once they know about all the positive aspects of cryptocurrency, they will invest their money into crypto.
What we can expect from now?
We finally now see the correction we all waited for. This is a very bullish sign for bitcoin. Why do i think so? Because every bullrun needs a healthy correction. Otherwise the foundation of the current uptrend is not healthy and would lead to manipulation which would lead to further downmoves.
We are still in an uptrend and we don´t need to worry about the current price.
I want to see now a breakout and retest of the current downtrend on the weekly chart. This would confirm my shortterm bullish view.
We could still go lower in shortterm!
We could even go lower in short term view! Which would lead to perfect LONG opportunities! I would not even mind if bitcoin goes down again to 4k or even lower, i would be happy to buy bitcoin so cheap!
Always trade without emotions guys. Buy bitcoin when others are selling. And sell when others are buying.
What do you think about the future price of bitcoin and cryptocurrency?
Do you agree with my view?
Let me know in the comments.
Thanks for reading,
stibo 🥦
Comment:
Check out the post from Darius in terms of Supply and Demand:
Comment:
Sorry guys i posted the wrong pair, here is the right analysis:
