Bitcoin, still dropping as (perfectly)planned. targets 7500/6000

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As one of the few here i was shorting Bitcoin at 11.500/11.600 because i knew that big inverse H&S everyone was looking at would be a big bull trap. I predicted an acceleration down, which clearly happened (look up my previous charts for more info). I closed most of my short positions around the 8500 because there i predicted a short covering rally.
Even though my first target was and still is 7500ish, i closed my short position at 8500 because i expected a move up towards the 9800/10.200. There i said upfront i would build up a big short position because i expected another wave down. My first 20% got in at 9850, but unfortunately there was hesitation at the 9800/9900 and i could see we would probably not go higher anymore and that's why i added another 20% at 9800 (again i called this upfront).

Now Bitcoin has been making a big bearish flag as you can see in this picture. For new readers, please look up my older charts for more info. Now for the short term it's possible we could still go towards the 9400 before making another big drop down towards the 8300/8400. IF we get there, i expect it to hang around those levels and that it will probably make another big drop into the 7K levels. When we get to those levels, i expect an even bigger drop towards the 6K and most probably even towards the 4K levels.
The purple line you see, is the neckline of an H&S i showed a week ago. It's not a textbook one, but what most people don't understand about TA, it's not about the patterns, indicators or whatever, TA is a story, the chart gives you a story and you must be able to read it. That's why i was convinced that big inverse H&S would fail!

For now, we are still moving sideways and slowly up, the 9250 is a heavy resistance, but even if we get above it, i expect it to stay below the 9400. If we get above the 9500, i will probably change my strategy a bit. BUT, my medium term outlook does not change!! If we get above the 9300 i will be adding to my short position, between the 9300 and 9400.

If we drop again, our biggest challenge is the 8700/8800 level (more important than the 8300/8400!! I said in an earlier update that we had to take out the 8750 level to drop even further. Now we have seen why.
Comment: My first update will be placed, if i get more than 50 likes :)
Comment: Those likes are taking to long :). Cant wait, looks like the high of this correction is already set. Volume was dropping, was making an ugly rising wedge. So i think we are dropping from here again
Comment: Here, that ugly wedge. I have seen spoofy again with his 300 to 400 BTC in the bid, so it's still possible he/they will still do something, but i think it's best to just ignore him this time :)
He was probably just pushing buyers into buying his selling orders at higher prices

Comment: For the people who have missed this, and what to know what kind of games are being played (same games that get played on the stock market for many many years now). Mostly by hedge funds.
Comment: Should stay below that area
Comment: This is a clear accumulation or distribution fase, but i am putting my money on the second one. The orange level still stand, and i see it as a short term turning point for more sideways action if it breaks. But the price seems to be turning down slowly
Comment: Something i wrote a few days ago, about the MT. Gox trustee:
You guys remember i said once or twice, i just could not figure out why, that the trustee of MT. Gox made that announcement of the dumps he made and is planning to dump more. Now with the latest news about this, it became clear in a second. They are turning it into something positive Of course it's still not logical, but as this writer turns it into something possible, probably more people can look at it that way. They are actually blaming him for the crashes from the highs. While saying that, they actually explain why Bitcoin crashed and that if MT. Gox hack had never happened, therefore this lawyer would never have the extreme amounts of Bitcoin, therefore there would never be this selling force pushing the market into those big crashes the last few months. So giving the impression that Bitcoin's price should normally be much higher. It would be really sick if i am wright. i know and i also think it's a bit far fetched, but who knows in this manipulative crypto world
Comment: Wash trading even happens at Bitmex lately :)
Comment: I have added at 9330
Comment: A short squeeze, didn't see it coming this time
Comment: This squeeze could change things a bit. If we break the 9450 i will probably close half my short position to lock in some profit and reduce the risk. This rally could make a bull flag right now pushing it up another 300 points
Comment: Change of plan again, i won't lower my stop. Keeping it around the 9800. This aint buying, so it's a temp move
Comment: Than green support area has worked several times now! This could become a problem for short positions. IF we break the 9500 again, we will probably have a double bottom there and could go higher towards the 10K again. For now it still has a big fight getting there. So still looking good, but not great! I want to see a break of that 8800 within a few hours
Comment: I have seen these moves many times, support buying! When it drops out of bear flags buying and pushing it up just when it makes a new low. It’s difficult to say now where they can take this
Comment: Oke, it's clear for me what is happening, rescue 911 spoofy and the gang ar doing the same thing they did a month ago at the 9400 low. Preventing to drop below support level that triggers even more selling. This is nothing new, no use fighting it, unless you got 1000 BTC on your balance, than i can push the market down for you :) LOL.

They are trying to force higher lows, each time we see those spikes up, that's not normal buying, that is forcing the market in a direction. Don't get fooled by these moves! If a big buyer wants to get in the market with a big position, he doesn't push it up like this, he buys it up slowly!

Anyway, having this said, it is very difficult to say where they can bring this, is it 9400? is it 9800 again? or maybe even much higher like 10.500 of 11.000. They managed to do it at the 9400 low, people who follow me know exactly what i was telling back than, even predicting a big rally (short covering) because i could see what they were planing there.

The pattern you see here below, is what they are trying to do, making higher lows. The chance we drop out of it, is still bigger, but if it does, i want to see a drop below the 9000 and eventually of course a break of the 8800. We are still in the big bear flag!!
Comment: ere we can see the flag i drew yesterday, i extended the lower trend line, here we can see it's actually only testing it as an resistance
Comment: Key level, is that green area around the 8700/8800, al level i said would be important before we even got there the first time. Here we can see that it has acted as a solid support level several times. A break of this level will almost guarantee a break of the 8000. I don't look at the 8350 low, i think if we will drop straight through it.

Comment: Almost breaking that higher low pattern
Comment: Does not mean much, could just be another small wave up
Comment: There was no real follow through with that small break out, this is what happens than
Comment: Now lets hope the 8800 breaks, the faster the better. Otherwise we will get bored to sleep again, bears and bulls :)
Comment: This is an important moment, buyers are trying to hold that green support, so the bears wont even get close to an attempt to break the 8750
Comment: This small bear flag should not take to long
Comment: I saw some big orders at Bitmex, but both ways. So there are some that are fighting here, probably the one with the biggest wallet will win :)
Comment: I am so glad i am not small trades today, these are frustrating moments
Comment: It's crawling up slowly it seems, think it will go up another time. But we are in an triangle now, we should break out soon. I think there is a big chance that if we go up, we could see a false breakout on the upside. But difficult to say upfront. I have me stop still around my entry level at 9830
Comment: There it is, i think we will see another one, ending up somewhere between 9500/9650, creating a false breakout. It's just a gut feeling, but i am not convinced as i have been other times. I know i could be wrong ofcourse, but most Alts are still saying the same thing, thats going down further. That has been an leading indicator for me since the 11.600 high's where i went short the first time. If we break the 9500 i will add some again between the 9500/9600. Again, i dont know exactly untill where this could go on, but this is my best guess :)

I have to admit there are some similarities with the 9400 low a month ago, i am not ignoring that. But we are still in the big bear flag and the trend is still down. So there are some small bullish signs, but the more you zoom out, the more bearish the picture gets!
Comment: Maybe thgis was the false outbreak already. It's still within the triangle, so both ways are possible, but we know what i think will have the biggest chance
Comment: It's a miracle :) movement finally. When you look at my primary chart, you can see it's following the blue line perfectly. I think it's done for now. The 8750 has been, should see a fast drop within a day or to towards the 7500
Comment: They are trying to pull a small inverse H&S, stalling this drop again. If it not gets above that neckline, see another acceleration down
Comment: Bigger picture, All the exchanges show a slightly different picture, At Bitfinex we are already hanging on the support line of this big bear flag
Comment: I dont know if anyone can pull up a decent chart of the total market cap of the crypto market. Look at that picture, the drop from 11.700 makes much much more sense, and my view for the med term is clearer
Comment: Alts are looking very bad
Comment: No real bounce, it's staying perfectly below the 8750/8800. What i said is a key support level. As long as we stay below that level, bearish momentum will stay max and we could see an acceleration down pretty soon
Comment: This move also has very similar waves. With the big bull trap at 17K and now another very big bull trap at the 11.700

Comment: Trying to create a small inverse H&S here, usually at these points, it doesn't work!
Comment: So funny to see how some of the bigger analysts here, are almost doing like they predicted the whole thing, while they were looking way waaaaay up at the highs above 11K :) It's nothing new. But what does bother me, almost everyone is looking down now. I would rather have that these people were still bullish.
As you can see now, i clearly predicted before, the 8800/8700 was the level what really mattered, not the 8400 low where we just went straight through :)

Anyway, it does bother me that most people are bearish now, but the big bear flag is set! we dropped below it, ideally we test the 8700/8600 again from here and than make another 1000ish point drop :)
Comment: So buyers are trying to turn it up again :), i hope they can make it.

Comment: And as i said in the update a few hours ago, where they were trying to make an H&S and that i said it usually doesn't work at that stage, were now you can see what happened.

Normally there are 2 different kind of bottoms, when short covering happens (V shape bottom) or a double bottom, so it was almost certain we would drop below the 8600 there.
Comment: This breakout looks like crap, no volume, so probably wont even get above the 8400. I still hope we see 8600
Comment: Could be seeing something like this (just a guess)
Comment: Think we can see some short closing/covering now
Comment: Funny market, i am curious how far they will take this squeeze, if it gets above the 8300, we could be seeing 8500/8600
Comment: I think we will get there, think we will see a break of the 8300 to go further up towards 8500/8600. There is chance ofcourse, it could just turn down from here, if there are not enough buyers. Than we could see another acceleration down again.
Comment: This could act as a last support
Comment: It dropped below that green area, but this is what i thought would happen. Look at the similarities. Could still happen though. For now the 8300 seems to be to strong, so that is a signs of weakness. But volume has decreased a bit during this last drop below the green line. So maybe it was just a test to see how much selling pressure is stil in the market at this moment

Comment: Now 8200 is THE resistance to break, so this is a turning point now
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Really enjoyed this post. What are your updated thoughts? Thanks!
Sorry to be a bore but I am a novice who is learning much from your work. I'm passing on to friends...most whom are more knowledgeable and competent in trading. Thanks again
botje11 willsolly
@willsolly, Feel free to share, your welcome :)
If it breaks 8000 and drops to 7500, do you think there will be a substantial bounce back up to the 8000 area? Or are we more likely to head quickly to the 6k and 4.9k levels?

I feel like a lot of money leaving the market at these levels would be hodlers slowly getting out after making big losses and just giving up. I am not sure if there would be as much panic selling as in the past as I don't think there is much new money that has entered.
botje11 JasonT79
@JasonT79, 7500 is not a real target for me, there is a wide range. I can only predict a big bounce at that very moment, spotting how price action goes in the late stage of a drop.
Panic selling is not only for the little guy, even big players can do that. It's like all whales do everything right. I understand what you say, sounds logical.

But i think the real hodlers are also starting to shit their pants, things are looking worse than the last drop (look at the Alts) so i think we will go much lower than the 6K this time. But of course i could be wrong
JasonT79 botje11
@botje11, Thanks for the response. I think the hodlers who had BTC at 20k and are still hodling are less likely to sell below 6k. They may see more potential upside and prefer to go down with the ship. So I agree. If there is panick selling, it may more likley be the whales.

That said, I personally bought at about 2k and things were heating up. I bought more up to about 6.5k and that's when things started to get real crazy. So there may be a lot of hodlers who bought in this range that panick when they first experience losing their original investments. I do hear a lot of people say, 'hey, its at 6k and I'm still up on my original investment'. Maybe we'll see a new wave of sellers.
don't see enough buying preasure
@hkh222, for now :D
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