The bulls recovered into Saturday briefly before touching the light blue 50 hour moving average line and quickly heading southward, getting crushed through that $6,000 level on huge all the way down to a low of $5,755 before a massive buy wall was hit and rallied price decisively back above the 50 hour MA to $6,230.
Since then price has trended sideways for the most part with another quick dip down down to the 50 hour MA this morning and rallying on relatively big an hour later.
In all the chaos, I have identified a reverse bottom that has already completed on the candle from 10am EST this morning breaking the neckline at $6,235 which is also the outside of the blue 1 standard deviation channel.
Price has now come back down to retest this neckline at 3pm EST, and has bounced ever so slightly. I do not like that the has not been increasing since then to indicate confirmation of a pop, but it could still come. What I do like overall is the that I have circled in black at the shoulder head and shoulder points.
The is getting into slightly overbought territory, but still has room where it could run higher. There is also solid showing up from the lows over the weekend here that I have marked with a pink up trending line on the indicator.
The also has good now too, even though the trigger line is beginning to curl downward bearishly and the histogram is trending lower. It may take a few hours for price to sit around this level to reset some of these indicator before the next move.
I could target could be that 200 hour moving average at $6,421 in the red channel of the and to the downside another retest of that $6,100 level at the 50 hour moving average. The goal for the bulls is to break the outside of that red channel on the though at about $6,450 and then a relief rally will be on.
On the daily analog Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, things are looking pretty good for a relief rally. After that big red candle on Friday, the candles over the weekend for the bulls have been quite resilient.
If you take a look at the on here, there is a distinct uptrend in the candles and price is also visibly trending upward as well. The wasn't there on past “rallies” on this downtrend over the last few weeks, so this is definitely an encouraging sign, but as usual the needs to continue.
I have added the indicator on here as well to help identity when this downtrend will switch . The indicator is located on the price chart with those little dots above or below price. When the price jumps above or below those dots it is an indication of a trend change.
For this chart there is a convergence with the top of the down-trending on where the trend will change and that price is again around $6,600. If price does manage to break above there, a rally up to $7,100 would be a nice level in the short term. On the downside, the bottom of the at around $5,500 as a target.
On the indicator there, is a distinct from the price lower lows to the higher lows. I have marked that with a blue up-trending line on the indicator. You can also see how back at the beginning of May the picked up the divergence that I have marked with the pink down-trending line.
The has also coiled and looks ready to pop up here as well. There could be more downside here, but overall, you don’t want to be switching on day 50 of a downtrend.
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