Crucial support for BTC. Bear flag on daily

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
A bear flag formed on the daily.

-We broke out of the channel. Waiting remaining of daily candle to confirm breakout.
-We are touching the .618 FIB of the last uptrend. A breakout of it would cancel the uptrend indicating that new lows are possible.
-2 trend lines indicating crucial support. Angled one is the new trend of higher lows, horizontal one is weekly market structure.
-Purple line is the target of the bear flag , exact same length as the flag pole. Reaching pole target would create a new low indicating that the bear market is not just over yet.

Short idea not to be traded just yet as reversal is still possible. 4H broke out of flag channel but we are still holding .618 FIB which could still make us bounce. I will short on the daily confirmation under the .618 fib with stop loss at the re entry of the flag channel.

Not financial advice. Just sharing my knowledge, ideas and trades.
Sep 25
Comment: Forgot to mention my TP. TP at 6000 since we have such strong support. Will reopen trade if we break market structure.

Most traders should wait for a breakout if market structure as this trade has a poor risk to reward ratio.

10% of capital will go on breakout of the flag
15% of capital at breakout of higher lows trend line.
25% of capital at breakout of market structure.

Target will have to be re evaluate then.

Bitcoin midterm analysis that you need to see
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