XenoBiologist
Long

BTC a choice! ELLIOT vs TRIANGLE

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I recently posted a chart that considered the possibility of an Eliot wave formation which could drive the price up. I've now updated the chart adding a few key features.

A downward channel was added demonstrated in blue. This downward channel coincides perfectly with multiple breakout rejections and is in play right now. The first wave starting at around 9k was rejected at the 11k level which coincides with a previously demonstrated level of resistance/support. It is important to note that this is also a major psychological barrier and may not be broken easily for now.

The MACD is starting to roll downwards and as the lines kiss we will see a downwards movement of the price action. Volume is tapering off as uncertainty sets in and traders step of to the sides to watch the next moves.
RSI is also on the way down - this is where one of two scenarios come into play.

We will either have an Eliot wave or a triangle pattern form.

For the Eliot wave to take place there would need to be strong support found at around the 10k level. Now if this support is not found then in my mind we will instead form a triangle pattern which in and of itself is not a negative play - it could eventually result in a breakout to the upside. We would have to reevaluate the situation at the given time.

However, the triangle play would seem to show great support at the 9,6k level at which there are a few different points of support which seem to all agree at this level; there is: the 0,38 fib level, a previous line of support/resistance , and of course our posited triangle formation.

When do we know which of the two formations will take effect? Look out for the 10k level at around the 1-2 of March. If support is found then the possibility of an Eliot wave taking over is greatly improved. However, we must still look out for the 10,7k level which will challenge the downward trend. I will buy if support is found on the 10k and then proceed to set tight stops to prevent loss.

As I said in my last chart: Get ready to fomo guys in the short term we are going up!""

In my mind BTC has suffered for far too long and there is too much big money invested. As I pointed out in my - CALM DOWN BTC: - chart BTC is going to go back up longterm.

Even take a look at the rich list and observe their movements, what are they doing? They are accumulating. Even just 16ftSEQ4ctQFDtVZiUBusQUjRrGhM3JYwe

https://live.blockcypher.com/btc/address...

...for example. This guy had previously purchased around 400 million dollars worth of BTC . Then dumped around 3000 coins for short term profit. He went from around 60k coins to 96k then dumped around 3k bringing the total down to around 93k and now where is his worth? 99k that's right he's playing with us! These people are accumulating! Take a look at some of these other addresses.

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-riches...

Whichever of these scenarios takes place my stance on BTC is bullish! If it goes the Elliot route - UP! If triangle watch for the breakout - UP! HERE COMES THE FOMO!

This is of course not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor.

Best of luck,
X
Mar 01
Comment: BTC is heavily testing the upward channel! This is going to be huge guys!

Volume still seems a bit low, the MACD is starting to see some positive separation, the RSI is however, in the 60 - 62 range so starting to get close to 70. RSI will probably tell us when we're going down before the MACD!

There is huge upwards resistance caused by the down channel and a level of support/resistance at around the 10,9k and 11k levels. These are important psychological barriers.

In conclusion it looks like we're going the Elliot wave way rather than the triangle route in the near future. But if rejected at the 11k point we might see our way down into the triangle again. What are we watching for? A close above the channel.

I'll update the chart in case of a close above the channel and a breakout.

Get ready guys!
Mar 01
Comment: We got the close above the channel and we are on the way up! We're not out of the woods yet though keep an eye out for those resistance levels.

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