So while it's nice to see the market "recovering" there's actually a lot left to do before you can even begin to think about where the price will be in 2018. Technically, this is still a bear market, and has NOT reversed yet. While the trend is in fact trying to change in favor of the bulls, the bears are not done yet and will likely test lower levels (even a higher low in the 8K area) to confirm support. Don't get ahead of yourself.
In fact, I would posit that BTC may not get back to 20K ever again, and as the market evolves and changes, the necessity for BTC will be greatly diminished. Consider: The reason most people buy BTC is because they NEED it to convert it into the coin they actually want. This artificially inflates the price of BTC , and is why everything "follows" BTC , because so much is priced into it. However, this year, decentralized fiat exchanges are going to allow you to purchase ANY coin with fiat, in addition to being able to trade ANY coin for ANY other coin. This will dramatically alter the price and utility of BTC , and it's something I don't think a lot of people are taking into account. Once full-fiat exchanges are introduced, the game changes and so does the way we trade.
I'm not saying BTC /won't/ get to 20K or 50K, and this scenario may not come to fruition or change anything at all, but I am saying that there are fundamentals taking shape for 2018 that many people seem to be glossing over; in fact, I'm not sure how much of the market is even aware of this yet. I think it's worth bringing up.
Overall be excited, but temper your expectations. BTC and crypto in general are extremely manipulated, and have been for years. The price of just about anything in this space simply explodes, and does nothing but go higher and higher and higher. Simply invest your money, and it turns into more. There's a dangerous psychology in the market right now (and has been) around the price action and expections in BTC and crypto. George Soros' Theory of Reflexivity states that the psychological sentiment towards an asset can be artificially created/manufactured/boosted through the manipulation of the price over long periods of time. In other words, if the price always goes up, and nothing ever seems to be able to stop it, people will artificially find more value in it than may otherwise exist, and begin to naturally support those manipulated prices and even rage for HIGHER prices.
BTC is a pretty good example of this, and this psychology exists quite unhealthily in this space. Try to keep an open and independent mind right now. While it may look like nothing but opportunity here, the situation could actually be quite dangerous.
And remember, this is the same George Soros' who funds Bitcoin Core / AXA ...
Something to think about.
Trade safe, trade smart, and be logical and rational.
TLDR: BTC looks good but it has some big hurdles to overcome. Likely to see a dip/retest of old lows, and if not, at least set a higher low to confirm support levels. Failure to do this will likely result in a bigger crash later, the same thing we just went through by getting too high too fast. A real bull wants to see a retest of lows. Remember that, because real bulls still have a lot of money to enter the market and won't until the market provides certainty that it has stable support levels.
If the market turned around due largely to a single person buying $400MM worth of BTC, we are definitely overbought and need to retest the lows.
The monopolies in this space are growing.
If wait for it to be stable before going margin long. Remember the faster it goes up without stopping the more it's going to crash. We just experienced a crash like that for that very reason.
Anything lower than that will be fairly extreme. Need a little more time.
Should end up being a roughly 8% drop. Otherwise, lower would get us looking at 9k and even 8K targets. A bounce here would justify a short-term long position on the "oversold bounce" if you can manage it.
That’s why I believe its value will rise in the long term. It has most all of the qualities of gold, and with some that it does not.
And why would it be chosen? Legacy. “First” benefit. The product/technology that is the most well known, with the longest history tends to win for that simple fact. It is the first.
Thanks again for your thoughts.