May 15
We did break down of of our wedge. While this is a bearish signal, the fact that the 20W MA is right below us might give us the impression that this structure was not meant to be a wedge in the first place, but a parallel channel. If that turns out to be the case, we can expect movement between 47 and 51K. Also, the 18W Short MA is also around 48.5k and there has been instances where we use that as support.
We did break down of of our wedge. While this is a bearish signal, the fact that the 20W MA is right below us might give us the impression that this structure was not meant to be a wedge in the first place, but a parallel channel. If that turns out to be the case, we can expect movement between 47 and 51K. Also, the 18W Short MA is also around 48.5k and there has been instances where we use that as support.
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This does not mean we are out of the woods yet. The Pheonix indicator shows potential for a lot of bearish momentum.
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Pheonix in higher timeframes is even more bearish. For the first time in this bull run, both LSMA and RSI has dropped and closed below 50. This means that the price will try the lower bollinger bands and the lower bollinger bands will continue to drop steeper and steeper (open up downwards). In english, this means that the bears will or do have the control.
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The even higher timeframes (3D, 6D, 9D, 12D) emphasize the potential magnitude of a bearish movement.
For the first time, LSMA (blue line) is getting below 50. For the first time, RED RSI seem to be closing below 50. This all means that we have greater odds of having a move to the downside.
So where would be our hypothetical support? Well, let the bollinger bands tell you that story. Remember, however, that the bollinger bands change with every new candle. So, while we might try the white lower Bollinger Band, its price might be higher than what it is today.
For the first time, LSMA (blue line) is getting below 50. For the first time, RED RSI seem to be closing below 50. This all means that we have greater odds of having a move to the downside.
So where would be our hypothetical support? Well, let the bollinger bands tell you that story. Remember, however, that the bollinger bands change with every new candle. So, while we might try the white lower Bollinger Band, its price might be higher than what it is today.
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I am not implying that you should sell everything today. Technical analysis is just a game of probability. I am just trying to show some possibilities that weren't likely last week, but getting more convincible as the days go by.
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1W and 1M Timeframes
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Here is another historical perspective.
I had shared this idea before, check if out here:
I had shared this idea before, check if out here:
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Zooming in
Trade closed: target reached:
Really successful trade. Had hedged for this downfall. Will followup in different publications to underline where we can go after our drop to 30k.