A rather drastic drop just occurred for BTC with potential (probable) drops to continue (after possible short-term retracement). The long-term linear trend just took a rather harsh hit as the price dipped below the support around 58K and subsequently plummeted to around 51.5K USD. However, this doesn't look like the bull market is done just yet.
Whenever I see a dip without a flash crash from the beginning uptrend, I tend to look to the logarithmic chart for what trends to observe (NOTE: the current crash was to the 61.8% Fibonacci for the dip since 43K and around 23.6% Fibonacci of the dip since 29K). Additionally, the current logarithmic trend looks to have started fairly earlier and more conclusively than the linear trend, so I feel it can be better trusted for longer-term trend expectations.
From the daily logarithmic chart, the uptrend definitely looks to be continuing (as indicated by the yellow trend line which I drew quite some time ago which some may have seen sneak into some of my previous charts), but one can definitely see there is a bit more possible dip to occur (to near around 47K, which is around the 38.2% Fibonacci level since the 29K dip). I anticipate this level is likely to occur with the current downtrend, but not necessarily after some retracement occurs (and potentially propelling a few alts back upward slightly in the short term).
Hence I am currently keeping an eye on the long-term daily upward support to see if it continues to hold. If it does, a retracement like that which is currently occurring definitely has the potential to be a healthy retreat before a longer uptrend within the next year. However, if support falters, it can definitely lead to a year(s) long reversal. Either way, the aforementioned levels seem to be some key points for which to watch out in the short-term to determine the rest of the long-term trend.
Please like if you agree or leave a comment if you see some different trends/concerns that I am missing as I would love to hear your thoughts!
Whenever I see a dip without a flash crash from the beginning uptrend, I tend to look to the logarithmic chart for what trends to observe (NOTE: the current crash was to the 61.8% Fibonacci for the dip since 43K and around 23.6% Fibonacci of the dip since 29K). Additionally, the current logarithmic trend looks to have started fairly earlier and more conclusively than the linear trend, so I feel it can be better trusted for longer-term trend expectations.
From the daily logarithmic chart, the uptrend definitely looks to be continuing (as indicated by the yellow trend line which I drew quite some time ago which some may have seen sneak into some of my previous charts), but one can definitely see there is a bit more possible dip to occur (to near around 47K, which is around the 38.2% Fibonacci level since the 29K dip). I anticipate this level is likely to occur with the current downtrend, but not necessarily after some retracement occurs (and potentially propelling a few alts back upward slightly in the short term).
Hence I am currently keeping an eye on the long-term daily upward support to see if it continues to hold. If it does, a retracement like that which is currently occurring definitely has the potential to be a healthy retreat before a longer uptrend within the next year. However, if support falters, it can definitely lead to a year(s) long reversal. Either way, the aforementioned levels seem to be some key points for which to watch out in the short-term to determine the rest of the long-term trend.
Please like if you agree or leave a comment if you see some different trends/concerns that I am missing as I would love to hear your thoughts!