Hi friends! Welcome to this long overdue, update analysis on Bitcoin! Looking at the daily BTC chart, you can see that it's the exact same chart from my previous analyses in May. I did add the 78.6% retrace, which we will discuss, but the same forward projection still applies. You can see that after resistance was found at the 50 EMA (in orange,) around 5/21, BTC continued to fall toward the bottom of the triangle as anticipated. From there, we did see a bounce but it was very weak — ultimately producing a breakdown below the triangle formation. That was something that I was warning everyone about, when I was informing everyone that the triangle was likely to produce a continuation of the downtrend. Remember, "the trend is your friend." Right now, the trend is down, which means that it's best to be in the safety of cash, or on the short side of this market. As you can see, my arrows from May are still telling the story of the likely forward path. I do believe that BTC could continue to decline toward the 5,000 handle (black trendline) before we see another relief rally. You can see that the 78.6% retrace is converging with the rising black trendline, right around the 5,000 level, which increases the significance of that area. From there, I think we could rally to some point near the apex of the triangle, forming another lower high, but that is speculation at this point. We first need to see how BTC reacts to the rising black trendline. If that level falls, then it would make a rally to the apex of the triangle less likely. However, if it holds, that's where I think we will see some relief in this selling pressure. With that said, it's normal for price to break down from a triangle and rally back into the level of the apex, before rolling back over. That's why I drew my forward looking arrows the way that I did, back in May.
On the MACD, you can see that it has crossed over bearish (red circle) but the momentum is starting to weaken compared to the price action of the chart. You can see that the momentum is sort of flattening out, while price is making severely lower lows, so that could be a sign of weakening sell side pressure. With that said, I do still believe that a test of the 5,000 area is very likely for the near future, regardless of the weakening momentum. Good luck trading, everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
On the MACD, you can see that it has crossed over bearish (red circle) but the momentum is starting to weaken compared to the price action of the chart. You can see that the momentum is sort of flattening out, while price is making severely lower lows, so that could be a sign of weakening sell side pressure. With that said, I do still believe that a test of the 5,000 area is very likely for the near future, regardless of the weakening momentum. Good luck trading, everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-