BITCOIN Analysis & Forecast 11.3.23 (AI Assisted)
Watch the video version to see how this was generated ... your mileage may vary !!!
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Key Statistics and Technicals:
- Bitcoin Price: $34,474.71 (A drop of $516.32 or -1.48% for the day)
- Day's Range: $34,347.89 - $34,997.81
- 52 Week Range: $15,479.25 - $60,324.21
- Volume: 94
- Average Volume (10 days): 370
- Market Cap: $673.041B
- FD Market Cap: $723.638B
Performance Metrics:
- 1 Week: +0.82%
- 1 Month: +25.57%
- 3 Months: +16.65%
- 6 Months: +19.65%
- YTD: +108.73%
- 1 Year: +70.95%
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
News headlines reveal a mixed sentiment. On one hand, there are articles suggesting potential upside (e.g., "Bitcoin could be getting ready for a strong bull move"), while others indicate possible drawbacks (e.g., "Bitcoin price in risky territory; BTC faces "massively overvalued" stock").
The day's range, which is a difference of 654.92 USD, suggests a relatively moderate intraday volatility. Considering the 52wk range, Bitcoin is trading near its 52-week high, which can be an indicator of bullish momentum, but it also brings an increased risk of a correction or pullback.
Another critical aspect to consider is the broader macroeconomic environment.
Several news articles allude to potential regulatory changes, institutional involvement, and specific events that might influence price (e.g., "PayPal freezes Crypto kiosk after brief sell-out boom" or "Argentinian Presidential Candidate's Plan to Mine BTC Stirs Debate").
Positive Sentiment -
- "MicroStrategy gains $500 million with Bitcoin rise in Q3 2023."
- "Spot ETF 'undoubtedly' launch isn't guaranteed to sink Alts, Analysts say."
- "Bitcoin hits new ATH at $36,000 as rally seems unstoppable."
- "BTC hitting $34k could spell good news for altcoins."
- "Bitcoin's price is mostly flat as Fed holds rates steady, denies macro shift."
Negative Sentiment -
- "Is Bitcoin due a "significant" correction?"
- "ETF launch stokes fears Bitcoin and Ether trading with flash crash risks."
- "New BTC price 'breakouts see Bitcoin traders' caution lengthens to six-week."
- "Crypto volatility surges; Analysts say be ready for a drop."
- "Bitcoin's price volatility hints another increase 'On the Cards'?"
Weighting -
- Positive Sentiment: 40%
- Negative Sentiment: 60%
- Technical Indicators: Neutral with a tilt towards Strong Buy
Upside Potential -
Given the recent all-time high and positive sentiment from various news outlets, there's potential for BTC to retest its recent high at $36,000. Based on current momentum and historical performance, this could happen within the next 2-3 weeks. Probability: 60%
Downside Potential -
Considering the mixed sentiments and potential for a significant correction, BTC might see a drop towards the $32,000 - $33,000 range in the short term. This pullback might offer a buying opportunity. Probability: 40%
Misc. Observations -
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently, at $35428.53, it's up by 2.22%. Its dominance stands at 53.98%. The total market cap excluding BTC and ETH is at $368.143B.
Highest Gainers:
- Alchemy Pay / United States Dollar: +20.64%
- CELO / US Dollar: +11.06%
- Amp / United States Dollar: +8.70%
Highest Losers:
- XDC / Dollar: -3.27%
- Tezos / United States Dollar: -3.30%
- Gods Unchained / United States Dollar: -1.04%
High Volume Movers:
- Crypto Total Market Cap Exclude BTC and ETH: 88.333B
- Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar: 283.834K
- Litecoin / U.S. Dollar: 267.107K
Bitcoin remains a dominant force with more than half of the total crypto market share.
PoW cryptos such as Ethereum Classic and Horizen are seeing positive traction.
Amp, under the Currency/Remittance category, has a significant volume, making it one to watch closely.
Among investment-grade cryptos, CELO's 11.06% increase is notable, indicating increased interest or potential news driving the spike.
Contrarian Perspective:
High gains like those seen in ACH and CELO might face corrections. High gains in a short time frame can sometimes indicate overbuying, leading to potential profit-taking shortly after.
Bitcoin's dominance, while significant, means that a downturn in its price can significantly influence the entire crypto market.
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INDICATOR SUITE:
Tesla Coil:
- len: 23.39
- 3xlen: 70.17
- len mirror: 16.61
- 3xlen mirror: -24.3
- average mirror: -5.06
- average: 34.94
Rate-of-Change (RoC):
- RoC: 32.74
- RoC + Signal Line Cross Up: 0.00
- RoC + Signal Line Cross Down: 0.00
- Various other sub-indicators including Bull, Hidden Bull, etc.
ATR + sma histogram:
- Histogram: 367.34
- ATR: 1102.50
- SMA: 735.16
OnBalanceVolume (OBV Cross):
- OnBalanceVolume: 7.579M
- Smoothing Line: 7.473M
Volume Analysis:
- Various plots ranging from 0.00 to 57892.77
HVol (dcedcow):
- Volume: 10.37K
RVol Pro:
- Value: 10.37K
Range Analysis - By Leviathan:
- VWAP: 27830.88
ADP:
- Primary ADP: 73
- Secondary ADP: 71
- Primary Signal Line: 71
- Secondary Signal Line: 68
Discretionary Weightings: Given the information and its relevance to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and Volatility …
- OnBalanceVolume (OBV): High importance. OBV measures the positive and negative flow of volume in a security relative to its price.
- ATR: High importance. Captures an asset's volatility.
- RoC: Medium importance. Measures the percentage change in price from one period to the next.
- Tesla Coil: Low to medium. Provides multiple layers of data related to price action.
Technical Analysis of Indicators:
- Tesla Coil: The chart seems to be in a consolidation phase, with the coil suggesting a possible breakout soon.
- Rate of Change: The ROC is relatively stable. This stability may suggest that the prevailing trend, be it bullish or bearish, is likely to continue.
- Average True Range: The ATR has remained consistent, suggesting that the current level of volatility is sustained. A higher ATR suggests increasing volatility, which might mean Bitcoin is experiencing significant price swings.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV indicates net buying/selling pressure. A declining OBV hints at a potential trend reversal, as volume precedes price. The OBV value is quite close to its smoothing line, indicating a balanced sentiment in the market.
- Time-Segmented Volume: This appears to be more bullish, suggesting institutional buying.
- Volume Spread: We see periods of high volume spread, indicating strong buying and selling forces.
- Accumulation/Distribution: The line suggests more distribution than accumulation recently, a potential bearish signal.
Price Projection: Given the current trend and indicators …
- Upside Potential: BTC could test its recent ATH at $36,000. Based on current momentum and external factors like institutional involvement, there's a 60% probability of reaching $36,500 within the next 2-3 weeks.
- Downside Risk: Considering negative news sentiment and potential regulatory challenges, BTC might face support at around $32,000. If this support breaks, we could see a further decline to $30,000 with a 40% probability over the next month.
Insights & Actionable Suggestions:
- Volatility & Volume: The ATR of 1102.50 indicates a high level of volatility for BTC in its daily price movement. The current volume is below its 10-day average, suggesting lower trading activity.
- RoC Indication: A positive RoC of 32.74 suggests the price momentum is currently bullish.
- OBV Insight: The OnBalanceVolume is slightly higher than its smoothing line, indicating that volume on up days is generally outpacing volume on down days. This can be a bullish sign.
- Performance Metrics: BTC has seen a robust performance YTD with a growth of 108.73%. It's essential to note that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend over the past year has been bullish.
Visual Representation: For a visual, consider plotting the mentioned levels on your chart -
- Support at $32,000 (red line)
- Resistance or next target at $36,500 (green line)
- Current price at $34,522.66 (blue line)
- Potential zones of interest (in a shaded region) between the support and resistance.
Additional Indicator Suggestion: Considering the current market conditions and to get a better understanding of the underlying trend strength, I'd suggest incorporating the Directional Movement Index (DMI). DMI can help ascertain if the trend is strong or weak, and when used with the ADX line, it can further validate the strength of bullish or bearish sentiments. This could be pivotal in the given circumstances where the market appears to be at an inflection point.
Lastly, given the data at hand, what are your thoughts on the potential for Market Makers or institutions manipulating the current BTC price, especially considering the evident bullish sentiment? Do you believe there might be an underlying play to hunt for retail liquidity?
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1D):
Initial Observations:
- Volume Profile: The chart showcases a fixed range volume profile to the left. The Point of Control (POC) - the price level with the most traded volume - is clearly visible around the 24848.00 mark.
- Volume-at-Time Histogram: There’s a significant volume spike around the range of $18000-$21000, indicating a possible support level or accumulation zone.
- Accumulation/Distribution & Time-Segmented Volume: The accumulation/distribution line is gradually inclining upwards, suggesting a net inflow of volume or accumulation. The time-segmented volume also points towards a bullish sentiment.
- Tesla Coil & Average True Range (ATR): The Tesla Coil's movement seems relatively stable. ATR, representing volatility, is increasing, suggesting possible strong price movements in the near term.
- Price Action: The recent price action exhibits a bullish momentum, breaking through a significant resistance level.
VSA-Derived Forecast:
- The strong accumulation and high traded volume at lower price levels hint at a bullish sentiment among traders. Institutions or market makers seem to have absorbed selling pressure around the $18000-$21000 range.
- The upward trend in accumulation/distribution points towards a continued bullish trend.
- Given the elevated ATR, expect larger price swings, both up and down, in the coming days.
Reconciliation with 1D Price Chart:
- The price is currently moving within an upward channel. Its recent breakout indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
- While the price is approaching a Fibonacci level, considering the strong volume and accumulation signs, it's likely to test the next Fibonacci level upwards.
- The intersection of the VWAP at 24848.00 with the POC can act as a significant support level in the event of a pullback.
Improved Forecast:
Upside Potential: Given the strong bullish sentiment from both VSA and price action, expect Bitcoin to test the 0.236 Fibonacci level in the near term, which could act as a minor resistance. On breaking this, it could move towards the 0 level.
- Entry Point: Current level or on a minor pullback to the recent breakout zone.
- Stop Loss: Just below the VWAP at around 24000.
- Profit Target: 0.236 Fibonacci level as the first target and 0 level as the next target.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:3, given the distance between the current price and the stop loss compared to the potential upside.
- Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks.
- Probability: 70% for reaching the 0.236 level, 50% for reaching the 0 level.
Downside Potential: If there's a reversal, expect Bitcoin to find strong support around the VWAP (24848.00) due to the volume profile.
- Entry Point: If the price fails to maintain the breakout level.
- Stop Loss: Above the recent high.
- Profit Target: 24848.00.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.5.
- Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
- Probability: 30% given the current bullish sentiment.
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1W):
The 1W (weekly) chart provides a wider perspective and thus offers a broader context to the previous 1D (daily) view. Here's a detailed analysis:
1. Price Action Analysis:
- Fibonacci levels: On this broader scale, we observe Bitcoin's price respecting various Fibonacci levels, notably the 0.236 and 0.618.
- Structure: The significant pullback after the previous bullish run suggests a possible correction or consolidation phase.
2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- Volume-at-Time histograms: There's a clear Point-of-Control (POC) around the $27,650 level, indicating it's a key price point where a significant amount of trading has taken place.
- Accumulation/Distribution: The accumulation phase seems prominent before the surge that occurred around late 2020, suggesting institutional involvement. Post-2020, we see a distribution phase followed by a consolidation pattern.
- On Balance Volume: This shows that the volume is moving with the trend. The current trajectory indicates possible accumulation.
3. Volatility:
- Tesla Coil: Notably calmer, implying reduced volatility on the longer time frame.
- Average True Range (ATR): Volatility seems to be tapering off from previous highs. This reduction in volatility on a weekly chart could imply a significant move is brewing.
4. Trend Exhaustion:
- We're witnessing signs of consolidation post the previous rally. The intersecting points of the VWAP and other tools can provide potential points of volatility, which we should monitor closely.
Given this wider perspective:
Upside Potential: The break above the VWAP around $27,650 and stabilizing above the 0.236 Fibonacci level suggests potential for upside momentum. A break above recent highs could target the next Fibonacci level at 0.618.
- Entry: Around the current price level.
- Stop Loss: Below the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
- Profit Target: Just below the 0.618 Fibonacci.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.5.
- Time Horizon: 3-6 months.
- Probability: 60%.
Downside Potential: If Bitcoin's price fails to sustain above the VWAP and breaks below the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we could see a further decline towards the lower Fibonacci levels.
- Entry: On confirmed break below 0.236 Fibonacci.
- Stop Loss: Above recent swing high.
- Profit Target: Next Fibonacci level below.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.
- Time Horizon: 2-4 months.
- Probability: 40%.
Additional Indicator Suggestion: Given the importance of trend direction in this scenario, consider integrating the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) for this timeframe. The Parabolic SAR can provide dynamic entry and exit points and can be particularly useful in trending markets.
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1h):
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- Volume Profile: A prominent high volume node appears around $33,000, indicating a strong support level. The Point-of-Control (POC) is visibly marked and rests just above this.
- Time-Segmented Volume: There's a noticeable surge in volume during the rapid price ascent, followed by a decline, suggesting a possible buying exhaustion.
Volatility:
- Tesla Coil: Relative stability is observed with slight periodic spikes, indicating contained volatility.
- Average True Range (ATR): No drastic peaks, which suggests that the price movement remains within a typical range for the time being.
Trend Exhaustion:
- The price is approaching the upper Fibonacci level (0.236). Should it break, we might expect a rally towards the next Fibonacci level (0.382). However, the consistent touch-points without breakthrough hint at resistance.
- The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) sits below the current price, suggesting the asset is trading at a premium.
Indicators:
- On Balance Volume (OBV): Displays an uptrend, suggesting buying pressure. However, the recent flattening can be a sign of a possible decline in this momentum.
- Volume Spread: The lack of prominent bearish bars with increased volume indicates that selling pressure isn't dominant.
Forecast & Trading Strategy:
-Short-Term Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
- Entry: $34,200
- Stop Loss: $33,400 (near the high volume node for support)
- Profit Target: $35,500 (approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci level)
- Risk:Reward: 1:2.6
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours.
-Short-Term Bearish Scenario (40% probability):
- Entry: $33,800 upon breaking below the support.
- Stop Loss: $34,200
- Profit Target: $33,000 (next volume node)
- Risk:Reward: 1:2
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours.
Session-Based Volatility:Considering typical crypto market behavior, anticipate increased volatility during the overlap of the Asian and European sessions and the opening of the New York session.
Trading windows:
- Asian-European Overlap: 6:00-9:00 UTC
- New York Session Opening: 13:00-15:00 UTC
Questions:
- Are there any macroeconomic events or news catalysts anticipated which might influence BTC's price action during our forecasted horizon?
- Considering your strategy revolves around Market Makers and institutional manipulation, have you noticed any recent patterns or behaviors in other assets that might indicate a larger play in Bitcoin?
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (15m):
Price Action: The recent sharp decline indicates a strong bearish momentum, though the price has started consolidating within the $33,800 to $34,600 range. This consolidation is a good sign, showing that the decline might be temporary, or at least, we might experience some sideways movement for a while.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- We can spot a series of high volume spikes during price declines, indicating potential buying pressure or accumulation. The high volume during the decline around the 29th and subsequent upward movement confirms a potential bullish outlook.
- The Point of Control (POC) shown appears to be a significant support level where most trading has occurred. Prices tend to gravitate towards the POC, so this can be a potential target in retracement scenarios.
Indicators:
- Tesla Coil: Shows signs of potential volatility with multiple peaks, but currently, it's maintaining stability, hinting that the current volatility is diminishing and suggesting we might be entering a phase of price consolidation.
- Rate of Change (ROC): It's fluctuating around the 0 line, signaling a probable shift in momentum. However, the current consolidation means a lack of directional bias.
- Average True Range (ATR): Seems to be decreasing, aligning with the Tesla Coil's inference.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): A mild decline is noticed, hinting that selling volume has been slightly overpowering buying volume, but not decisively so.
- Time-Segmented Volume: The chart indicates more buying during certain periods, suggesting institutional interest at these levels.
- Volume Spread: Shows accumulation rather than distribution, reinforcing the bullish bias.
- Accumulation/Distribution: Displays a divergence. Even though the price made a lower low, the A/D made a higher low, suggesting underlying buying pressure. This could suggest potential upside if this trend continues.
Harmonic Patterns: There's a completion of a bullish harmonic pattern (potential Gartley or Bat) with the price touching the 0.786 retracement level and bouncing back, reinforcing a potential bullish move. Several harmonics appear to have reached completion, suggesting potential reversal zones. The intersection of these patterns with session-based volatility peaks can give ideal entry and exit points.
Session-based Volatility:
- It's evident that the price experiences heightened volatility during the overlap of the Asian (Tokyo) and European (London) sessions, and similarly, during the overlap of the European and American (New York) sessions. This suggests two potential windows for scalping opportunities: One shortly after the Tokyo open (when European traders are still active) and another after the London open (when American traders enter the fray).
Forecast and Trading Windows:
- Short-Term Bullish Bias: The recent bounce from the 0.786 level suggests a move towards the 0.382 and 0.236 levels as immediate targets. For scalping, consider long entries on pullbacks near significant support zones, like the POC or the lower boundary of the pitchfork.
Entry Point: Around $34,600 (near POC)
Stop Loss: $34,400 (below the recent swing low)
Profit Target 1: $34,800 (0.382 level)
Profit Target 2: $35,000 (0.236 level)
Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2 and 1:4 for the two targets, respectively.
Time Horizon: Given it's a 15m chart, this strategy might play out in the next 12-36 hours.
Probability: Medium-High. Multiple indicators and VSA align with this bullish outlook, but always be prepared for unexpected events, especially in the crypto space.
Enhancements based on the 15m chart:
- The shorter timeframe provides a granular view of price movements and allows for precise identification of entry and exit points.
- The session-based volatility observed aligns with typical forex market behaviors and can be used strategically for scalping.
Forecast: Given the indicators and chart patterns, there's a probable upside potential in the short term. The price might test the $34,600 resistance before determining its next move.
Trade Recommendations:
- Long Position:
- Entry: Around $34,100 (after confirming the breakout of consolidation)
- Stop Loss: $33,700 (below the 0.786 Fibonacci level)
- Profit Target: $34,600
- Risk:Reward ratio: Approx. 1:2
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours (given the 15m timeframe)
- Probability: ~60% (based on current indicators and patterns)
Contrarian Perspective: While multiple signs point to a short-term bullish move, it's crucial to consider the flip side. The price could reject the upper boundaries of the pitchfork, and a decrease in volume could indicate fading buyer interest. A clear break below the POC might negate the bullish outlook.
Remember to adjust positions based on real-time data, especially during high volatility sessions. Your thoughts?
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Trade Ideas:
1D Chart - Swing Trading
The fixed range volume profile indicates substantial support in the vicinity of $32,500, making it an optimal region for establishing a position. The VWAP, marked at $24,848.00, acts as a historical average price, and the current price is well above this level, showing bullish sentiment. The intersection of Fibonacci levels with price action is noteworthy, especially around the 0.236 region. Accumulation/Distribution indicates a strong buying pressure, and the Tesla Coil along with Average True Range confirms the present volatility.
-Optimal Long Position:
- Entry Point: $34,400 (nearest to the day's low with support indicated by the volume profile).
- Stop Loss: $33,500 (just below daily ATR value, providing a buffer).
- Profit Target: $36,000 (near the 52-week range midpoint).
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3.
- Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
- Probability: 65%.
Short Position: Though the current trend is bullish, potential trend exhaustion can be anticipated by observing the Price Action with Fibonacci channels and overlapping Pitchforks. The region above $36,000 might act as a strong resistance given the proximity to the 52-week high and the subsequent volume gap.
-Optimal Short Position:
- Entry Point: If Bitcoin drops below $34,200.
- Stop Loss: $34,700 (considering day's high).
- Profit Target: $32,500 (slightly above the ATR's lower range).
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3.5.
- Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks.
- Probability: 35%.
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1h Chart (and below) - Scalping
- Long Position:
- Entry Point: A buy order slightly above the recent consolidation zone, around $33,200.
- Stop Loss: $31,500 (Just below the Point of Control).
- Profit Target: The first target is at the next volume void around $34,700. A secondary target, if momentum persists, is at $36,500.
- Risk:Reward Ratio: For the first target, the risk:reward is roughly 1:3. For the secondary target, it's approximately 1:6.5.
- Time Horizon: Given the 1-hour chart, anticipate this trade to play out in the next 12-48 hours.
- Probability: Estimating a 65% chance of reaching the first target and a 40% chance of hitting the secondary target, given current consolidation and volume analysis.
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Key Statistics and Technicals:
- Bitcoin Price: $34,474.71 (A drop of $516.32 or -1.48% for the day)
- Day's Range: $34,347.89 - $34,997.81
- 52 Week Range: $15,479.25 - $60,324.21
- Volume: 94
- Average Volume (10 days): 370
- Market Cap: $673.041B
- FD Market Cap: $723.638B
Performance Metrics:
- 1 Week: +0.82%
- 1 Month: +25.57%
- 3 Months: +16.65%
- 6 Months: +19.65%
- YTD: +108.73%
- 1 Year: +70.95%
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
News headlines reveal a mixed sentiment. On one hand, there are articles suggesting potential upside (e.g., "Bitcoin could be getting ready for a strong bull move"), while others indicate possible drawbacks (e.g., "Bitcoin price in risky territory; BTC faces "massively overvalued" stock").
The day's range, which is a difference of 654.92 USD, suggests a relatively moderate intraday volatility. Considering the 52wk range, Bitcoin is trading near its 52-week high, which can be an indicator of bullish momentum, but it also brings an increased risk of a correction or pullback.
Another critical aspect to consider is the broader macroeconomic environment.
Several news articles allude to potential regulatory changes, institutional involvement, and specific events that might influence price (e.g., "PayPal freezes Crypto kiosk after brief sell-out boom" or "Argentinian Presidential Candidate's Plan to Mine BTC Stirs Debate").
Positive Sentiment -
- "MicroStrategy gains $500 million with Bitcoin rise in Q3 2023."
- "Spot ETF 'undoubtedly' launch isn't guaranteed to sink Alts, Analysts say."
- "Bitcoin hits new ATH at $36,000 as rally seems unstoppable."
- "BTC hitting $34k could spell good news for altcoins."
- "Bitcoin's price is mostly flat as Fed holds rates steady, denies macro shift."
Negative Sentiment -
- "Is Bitcoin due a "significant" correction?"
- "ETF launch stokes fears Bitcoin and Ether trading with flash crash risks."
- "New BTC price 'breakouts see Bitcoin traders' caution lengthens to six-week."
- "Crypto volatility surges; Analysts say be ready for a drop."
- "Bitcoin's price volatility hints another increase 'On the Cards'?"
Weighting -
- Positive Sentiment: 40%
- Negative Sentiment: 60%
- Technical Indicators: Neutral with a tilt towards Strong Buy
Upside Potential -
Given the recent all-time high and positive sentiment from various news outlets, there's potential for BTC to retest its recent high at $36,000. Based on current momentum and historical performance, this could happen within the next 2-3 weeks. Probability: 60%
Downside Potential -
Considering the mixed sentiments and potential for a significant correction, BTC might see a drop towards the $32,000 - $33,000 range in the short term. This pullback might offer a buying opportunity. Probability: 40%
Misc. Observations -
Bitcoin (BTC): Currently, at $35428.53, it's up by 2.22%. Its dominance stands at 53.98%. The total market cap excluding BTC and ETH is at $368.143B.
Highest Gainers:
- Alchemy Pay / United States Dollar: +20.64%
- CELO / US Dollar: +11.06%
- Amp / United States Dollar: +8.70%
Highest Losers:
- XDC / Dollar: -3.27%
- Tezos / United States Dollar: -3.30%
- Gods Unchained / United States Dollar: -1.04%
High Volume Movers:
- Crypto Total Market Cap Exclude BTC and ETH: 88.333B
- Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar: 283.834K
- Litecoin / U.S. Dollar: 267.107K
Bitcoin remains a dominant force with more than half of the total crypto market share.
PoW cryptos such as Ethereum Classic and Horizen are seeing positive traction.
Amp, under the Currency/Remittance category, has a significant volume, making it one to watch closely.
Among investment-grade cryptos, CELO's 11.06% increase is notable, indicating increased interest or potential news driving the spike.
Contrarian Perspective:
High gains like those seen in ACH and CELO might face corrections. High gains in a short time frame can sometimes indicate overbuying, leading to potential profit-taking shortly after.
Bitcoin's dominance, while significant, means that a downturn in its price can significantly influence the entire crypto market.
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INDICATOR SUITE:
Tesla Coil:
- len: 23.39
- 3xlen: 70.17
- len mirror: 16.61
- 3xlen mirror: -24.3
- average mirror: -5.06
- average: 34.94
Rate-of-Change (RoC):
- RoC: 32.74
- RoC + Signal Line Cross Up: 0.00
- RoC + Signal Line Cross Down: 0.00
- Various other sub-indicators including Bull, Hidden Bull, etc.
ATR + sma histogram:
- Histogram: 367.34
- ATR: 1102.50
- SMA: 735.16
OnBalanceVolume (OBV Cross):
- OnBalanceVolume: 7.579M
- Smoothing Line: 7.473M
Volume Analysis:
- Various plots ranging from 0.00 to 57892.77
HVol (dcedcow):
- Volume: 10.37K
RVol Pro:
- Value: 10.37K
Range Analysis - By Leviathan:
- VWAP: 27830.88
ADP:
- Primary ADP: 73
- Secondary ADP: 71
- Primary Signal Line: 71
- Secondary Signal Line: 68
Discretionary Weightings: Given the information and its relevance to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) and Volatility …
- OnBalanceVolume (OBV): High importance. OBV measures the positive and negative flow of volume in a security relative to its price.
- ATR: High importance. Captures an asset's volatility.
- RoC: Medium importance. Measures the percentage change in price from one period to the next.
- Tesla Coil: Low to medium. Provides multiple layers of data related to price action.
Technical Analysis of Indicators:
- Tesla Coil: The chart seems to be in a consolidation phase, with the coil suggesting a possible breakout soon.
- Rate of Change: The ROC is relatively stable. This stability may suggest that the prevailing trend, be it bullish or bearish, is likely to continue.
- Average True Range: The ATR has remained consistent, suggesting that the current level of volatility is sustained. A higher ATR suggests increasing volatility, which might mean Bitcoin is experiencing significant price swings.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV indicates net buying/selling pressure. A declining OBV hints at a potential trend reversal, as volume precedes price. The OBV value is quite close to its smoothing line, indicating a balanced sentiment in the market.
- Time-Segmented Volume: This appears to be more bullish, suggesting institutional buying.
- Volume Spread: We see periods of high volume spread, indicating strong buying and selling forces.
- Accumulation/Distribution: The line suggests more distribution than accumulation recently, a potential bearish signal.
Price Projection: Given the current trend and indicators …
- Upside Potential: BTC could test its recent ATH at $36,000. Based on current momentum and external factors like institutional involvement, there's a 60% probability of reaching $36,500 within the next 2-3 weeks.
- Downside Risk: Considering negative news sentiment and potential regulatory challenges, BTC might face support at around $32,000. If this support breaks, we could see a further decline to $30,000 with a 40% probability over the next month.
Insights & Actionable Suggestions:
- Volatility & Volume: The ATR of 1102.50 indicates a high level of volatility for BTC in its daily price movement. The current volume is below its 10-day average, suggesting lower trading activity.
- RoC Indication: A positive RoC of 32.74 suggests the price momentum is currently bullish.
- OBV Insight: The OnBalanceVolume is slightly higher than its smoothing line, indicating that volume on up days is generally outpacing volume on down days. This can be a bullish sign.
- Performance Metrics: BTC has seen a robust performance YTD with a growth of 108.73%. It's essential to note that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend over the past year has been bullish.
Visual Representation: For a visual, consider plotting the mentioned levels on your chart -
- Support at $32,000 (red line)
- Resistance or next target at $36,500 (green line)
- Current price at $34,522.66 (blue line)
- Potential zones of interest (in a shaded region) between the support and resistance.
Additional Indicator Suggestion: Considering the current market conditions and to get a better understanding of the underlying trend strength, I'd suggest incorporating the Directional Movement Index (DMI). DMI can help ascertain if the trend is strong or weak, and when used with the ADX line, it can further validate the strength of bullish or bearish sentiments. This could be pivotal in the given circumstances where the market appears to be at an inflection point.
Lastly, given the data at hand, what are your thoughts on the potential for Market Makers or institutions manipulating the current BTC price, especially considering the evident bullish sentiment? Do you believe there might be an underlying play to hunt for retail liquidity?
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1D):
Initial Observations:
- Volume Profile: The chart showcases a fixed range volume profile to the left. The Point of Control (POC) - the price level with the most traded volume - is clearly visible around the 24848.00 mark.
- Volume-at-Time Histogram: There’s a significant volume spike around the range of $18000-$21000, indicating a possible support level or accumulation zone.
- Accumulation/Distribution & Time-Segmented Volume: The accumulation/distribution line is gradually inclining upwards, suggesting a net inflow of volume or accumulation. The time-segmented volume also points towards a bullish sentiment.
- Tesla Coil & Average True Range (ATR): The Tesla Coil's movement seems relatively stable. ATR, representing volatility, is increasing, suggesting possible strong price movements in the near term.
- Price Action: The recent price action exhibits a bullish momentum, breaking through a significant resistance level.
VSA-Derived Forecast:
- The strong accumulation and high traded volume at lower price levels hint at a bullish sentiment among traders. Institutions or market makers seem to have absorbed selling pressure around the $18000-$21000 range.
- The upward trend in accumulation/distribution points towards a continued bullish trend.
- Given the elevated ATR, expect larger price swings, both up and down, in the coming days.
Reconciliation with 1D Price Chart:
- The price is currently moving within an upward channel. Its recent breakout indicates a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
- While the price is approaching a Fibonacci level, considering the strong volume and accumulation signs, it's likely to test the next Fibonacci level upwards.
- The intersection of the VWAP at 24848.00 with the POC can act as a significant support level in the event of a pullback.
Improved Forecast:
Upside Potential: Given the strong bullish sentiment from both VSA and price action, expect Bitcoin to test the 0.236 Fibonacci level in the near term, which could act as a minor resistance. On breaking this, it could move towards the 0 level.
- Entry Point: Current level or on a minor pullback to the recent breakout zone.
- Stop Loss: Just below the VWAP at around 24000.
- Profit Target: 0.236 Fibonacci level as the first target and 0 level as the next target.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:3, given the distance between the current price and the stop loss compared to the potential upside.
- Time Horizon: 2-4 weeks.
- Probability: 70% for reaching the 0.236 level, 50% for reaching the 0 level.
Downside Potential: If there's a reversal, expect Bitcoin to find strong support around the VWAP (24848.00) due to the volume profile.
- Entry Point: If the price fails to maintain the breakout level.
- Stop Loss: Above the recent high.
- Profit Target: 24848.00.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.5.
- Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
- Probability: 30% given the current bullish sentiment.
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1W):
The 1W (weekly) chart provides a wider perspective and thus offers a broader context to the previous 1D (daily) view. Here's a detailed analysis:
1. Price Action Analysis:
- Fibonacci levels: On this broader scale, we observe Bitcoin's price respecting various Fibonacci levels, notably the 0.236 and 0.618.
- Structure: The significant pullback after the previous bullish run suggests a possible correction or consolidation phase.
2. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- Volume-at-Time histograms: There's a clear Point-of-Control (POC) around the $27,650 level, indicating it's a key price point where a significant amount of trading has taken place.
- Accumulation/Distribution: The accumulation phase seems prominent before the surge that occurred around late 2020, suggesting institutional involvement. Post-2020, we see a distribution phase followed by a consolidation pattern.
- On Balance Volume: This shows that the volume is moving with the trend. The current trajectory indicates possible accumulation.
3. Volatility:
- Tesla Coil: Notably calmer, implying reduced volatility on the longer time frame.
- Average True Range (ATR): Volatility seems to be tapering off from previous highs. This reduction in volatility on a weekly chart could imply a significant move is brewing.
4. Trend Exhaustion:
- We're witnessing signs of consolidation post the previous rally. The intersecting points of the VWAP and other tools can provide potential points of volatility, which we should monitor closely.
Given this wider perspective:
Upside Potential: The break above the VWAP around $27,650 and stabilizing above the 0.236 Fibonacci level suggests potential for upside momentum. A break above recent highs could target the next Fibonacci level at 0.618.
- Entry: Around the current price level.
- Stop Loss: Below the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
- Profit Target: Just below the 0.618 Fibonacci.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.5.
- Time Horizon: 3-6 months.
- Probability: 60%.
Downside Potential: If Bitcoin's price fails to sustain above the VWAP and breaks below the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we could see a further decline towards the lower Fibonacci levels.
- Entry: On confirmed break below 0.236 Fibonacci.
- Stop Loss: Above recent swing high.
- Profit Target: Next Fibonacci level below.
- Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2.
- Time Horizon: 2-4 months.
- Probability: 40%.
Additional Indicator Suggestion: Given the importance of trend direction in this scenario, consider integrating the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) for this timeframe. The Parabolic SAR can provide dynamic entry and exit points and can be particularly useful in trending markets.
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (1h):
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- Volume Profile: A prominent high volume node appears around $33,000, indicating a strong support level. The Point-of-Control (POC) is visibly marked and rests just above this.
- Time-Segmented Volume: There's a noticeable surge in volume during the rapid price ascent, followed by a decline, suggesting a possible buying exhaustion.
Volatility:
- Tesla Coil: Relative stability is observed with slight periodic spikes, indicating contained volatility.
- Average True Range (ATR): No drastic peaks, which suggests that the price movement remains within a typical range for the time being.
Trend Exhaustion:
- The price is approaching the upper Fibonacci level (0.236). Should it break, we might expect a rally towards the next Fibonacci level (0.382). However, the consistent touch-points without breakthrough hint at resistance.
- The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) sits below the current price, suggesting the asset is trading at a premium.
Indicators:
- On Balance Volume (OBV): Displays an uptrend, suggesting buying pressure. However, the recent flattening can be a sign of a possible decline in this momentum.
- Volume Spread: The lack of prominent bearish bars with increased volume indicates that selling pressure isn't dominant.
Forecast & Trading Strategy:
-Short-Term Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
- Entry: $34,200
- Stop Loss: $33,400 (near the high volume node for support)
- Profit Target: $35,500 (approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci level)
- Risk:Reward: 1:2.6
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours.
-Short-Term Bearish Scenario (40% probability):
- Entry: $33,800 upon breaking below the support.
- Stop Loss: $34,200
- Profit Target: $33,000 (next volume node)
- Risk:Reward: 1:2
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours.
Session-Based Volatility:Considering typical crypto market behavior, anticipate increased volatility during the overlap of the Asian and European sessions and the opening of the New York session.
Trading windows:
- Asian-European Overlap: 6:00-9:00 UTC
- New York Session Opening: 13:00-15:00 UTC
Questions:
- Are there any macroeconomic events or news catalysts anticipated which might influence BTC's price action during our forecasted horizon?
- Considering your strategy revolves around Market Makers and institutional manipulation, have you noticed any recent patterns or behaviors in other assets that might indicate a larger play in Bitcoin?
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PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS (15m):
Price Action: The recent sharp decline indicates a strong bearish momentum, though the price has started consolidating within the $33,800 to $34,600 range. This consolidation is a good sign, showing that the decline might be temporary, or at least, we might experience some sideways movement for a while.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
- We can spot a series of high volume spikes during price declines, indicating potential buying pressure or accumulation. The high volume during the decline around the 29th and subsequent upward movement confirms a potential bullish outlook.
- The Point of Control (POC) shown appears to be a significant support level where most trading has occurred. Prices tend to gravitate towards the POC, so this can be a potential target in retracement scenarios.
Indicators:
- Tesla Coil: Shows signs of potential volatility with multiple peaks, but currently, it's maintaining stability, hinting that the current volatility is diminishing and suggesting we might be entering a phase of price consolidation.
- Rate of Change (ROC): It's fluctuating around the 0 line, signaling a probable shift in momentum. However, the current consolidation means a lack of directional bias.
- Average True Range (ATR): Seems to be decreasing, aligning with the Tesla Coil's inference.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): A mild decline is noticed, hinting that selling volume has been slightly overpowering buying volume, but not decisively so.
- Time-Segmented Volume: The chart indicates more buying during certain periods, suggesting institutional interest at these levels.
- Volume Spread: Shows accumulation rather than distribution, reinforcing the bullish bias.
- Accumulation/Distribution: Displays a divergence. Even though the price made a lower low, the A/D made a higher low, suggesting underlying buying pressure. This could suggest potential upside if this trend continues.
Harmonic Patterns: There's a completion of a bullish harmonic pattern (potential Gartley or Bat) with the price touching the 0.786 retracement level and bouncing back, reinforcing a potential bullish move. Several harmonics appear to have reached completion, suggesting potential reversal zones. The intersection of these patterns with session-based volatility peaks can give ideal entry and exit points.
Session-based Volatility:
- It's evident that the price experiences heightened volatility during the overlap of the Asian (Tokyo) and European (London) sessions, and similarly, during the overlap of the European and American (New York) sessions. This suggests two potential windows for scalping opportunities: One shortly after the Tokyo open (when European traders are still active) and another after the London open (when American traders enter the fray).
Forecast and Trading Windows:
- Short-Term Bullish Bias: The recent bounce from the 0.786 level suggests a move towards the 0.382 and 0.236 levels as immediate targets. For scalping, consider long entries on pullbacks near significant support zones, like the POC or the lower boundary of the pitchfork.
Entry Point: Around $34,600 (near POC)
Stop Loss: $34,400 (below the recent swing low)
Profit Target 1: $34,800 (0.382 level)
Profit Target 2: $35,000 (0.236 level)
Risk:Reward: Approximately 1:2 and 1:4 for the two targets, respectively.
Time Horizon: Given it's a 15m chart, this strategy might play out in the next 12-36 hours.
Probability: Medium-High. Multiple indicators and VSA align with this bullish outlook, but always be prepared for unexpected events, especially in the crypto space.
Enhancements based on the 15m chart:
- The shorter timeframe provides a granular view of price movements and allows for precise identification of entry and exit points.
- The session-based volatility observed aligns with typical forex market behaviors and can be used strategically for scalping.
Forecast: Given the indicators and chart patterns, there's a probable upside potential in the short term. The price might test the $34,600 resistance before determining its next move.
Trade Recommendations:
- Long Position:
- Entry: Around $34,100 (after confirming the breakout of consolidation)
- Stop Loss: $33,700 (below the 0.786 Fibonacci level)
- Profit Target: $34,600
- Risk:Reward ratio: Approx. 1:2
- Time Horizon: 24-48 hours (given the 15m timeframe)
- Probability: ~60% (based on current indicators and patterns)
Contrarian Perspective: While multiple signs point to a short-term bullish move, it's crucial to consider the flip side. The price could reject the upper boundaries of the pitchfork, and a decrease in volume could indicate fading buyer interest. A clear break below the POC might negate the bullish outlook.
Remember to adjust positions based on real-time data, especially during high volatility sessions. Your thoughts?
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Trade Ideas:
1D Chart - Swing Trading
The fixed range volume profile indicates substantial support in the vicinity of $32,500, making it an optimal region for establishing a position. The VWAP, marked at $24,848.00, acts as a historical average price, and the current price is well above this level, showing bullish sentiment. The intersection of Fibonacci levels with price action is noteworthy, especially around the 0.236 region. Accumulation/Distribution indicates a strong buying pressure, and the Tesla Coil along with Average True Range confirms the present volatility.
-Optimal Long Position:
- Entry Point: $34,400 (nearest to the day's low with support indicated by the volume profile).
- Stop Loss: $33,500 (just below daily ATR value, providing a buffer).
- Profit Target: $36,000 (near the 52-week range midpoint).
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3.
- Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks.
- Probability: 65%.
Short Position: Though the current trend is bullish, potential trend exhaustion can be anticipated by observing the Price Action with Fibonacci channels and overlapping Pitchforks. The region above $36,000 might act as a strong resistance given the proximity to the 52-week high and the subsequent volume gap.
-Optimal Short Position:
- Entry Point: If Bitcoin drops below $34,200.
- Stop Loss: $34,700 (considering day's high).
- Profit Target: $32,500 (slightly above the ATR's lower range).
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 1:3.5.
- Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks.
- Probability: 35%.
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1h Chart (and below) - Scalping
- Long Position:
- Entry Point: A buy order slightly above the recent consolidation zone, around $33,200.
- Stop Loss: $31,500 (Just below the Point of Control).
- Profit Target: The first target is at the next volume void around $34,700. A secondary target, if momentum persists, is at $36,500.
- Risk:Reward Ratio: For the first target, the risk:reward is roughly 1:3. For the secondary target, it's approximately 1:6.5.
- Time Horizon: Given the 1-hour chart, anticipate this trade to play out in the next 12-48 hours.
- Probability: Estimating a 65% chance of reaching the first target and a 40% chance of hitting the secondary target, given current consolidation and volume analysis.
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Adrian Dyer,
Chief Strategist and Impresario at The Leading Indicator
Chief Strategist and Impresario at The Leading Indicator