botje11

Big Players Playing their Plays on Bitcoin, Upwards Correction

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin has been volatile again, makes things so much easier :) My followers know i shorted Bitcoin at a perfect price of 9970 and i am still holding this position. I think there is a very big chance we have seen the high for the short/med term. There is still a chance we go towards the 10.200/10.400 but those chances have decreased since this drop from the high. Bearish momentum is slowing down as well, Price bounced up twice today on a support trend line (purple/black line), so as long as we stay above the 9150 the next few hours, i think there is a big chance we go up from here. Depending on the strength of the market if could be between the 9400 and 9700, cant really say upfront. So i am expecting a lower high to be formed and that we continue to drop. I mentioned earlier today that there was a chance that the 9000/9100 would give support and while doing so it could move up to form a right shoulder. After a while price broke the support of a bear flag and seemed to continue the drop but than the price got pushed up again above the 9200. So far it has formed a small double bottom and the support of this pattern is around 9150.

Selling volume has not been very high and the drops as well, after each drop Bitcoin moved sideways to form a bearish flag . So when you look back to the past few months, this drop is much less than some big drops we made the past few months. To early to call this a bullish sign, but it's also because of this that i expect a move up again from here. As long as we stay below the 9700 it's still bearish on the short term. But i have been telling as well, that as long as price stays above the 8700, Bitcoin is still bullish! Below the 8700 things are change a bit, but 8000 should be a very strong support level as well. If this level breaks, than things become 50/50 for bear or bull market.

For more information please read a few of my previous analysis.



Don't forget to like :)




Previous analysis
Comment: I have to say, i thought it would push through on that last attempt. Seems that resistance is still a heavy one so far. If it can't push through the next few hours, big chance we will drop towards the 8800/8700


Comment: It looks like it's taking to long, 9150 support level is still holding though
Comment: 2 Things could be happening hear, or i gave the market to much credit for now, thinking it could go up, or there is a bullish wedge in the making now. Because the support broke, but this wedge could also break on the low side of course. Confusing signals
Comment: Maybe another small drop down before it will squeeze up? If it was 2 months ago, i would say we would keep on dropping, but how the market has been this rally the past month, would be really strange to see bulls be completely gone. So maybe a look just below the 9000
Comment: This could be it
Comment: The wedge is still in full play, but i have to say, i expected a bit more speed and conviction. As we can see here it's still below that former support line (the line is not exact). So this could also just be a test of the new resistance.
Comment: So eventually it pushed through the resistance and accelerated up, confirming the wedge. It should go towards the 9400/9450, but it also depends on what the market is planning. If the targets fall short by 100/50 points, and we break the 9000 again, than i will be 90% sure the 8700 will break as well. So far i expect maybe a day or 2 sideways to slowly up, somewhere between 9400/9600 to form a lower high.

Comment: Looks like a small bull flag, could break it right now, but i think the flag will become bigger and take more time (blue line).

Should stay above the 9200ish
Comment: I am seeing some strange price action, even though it broke out of the flag. Big chance this break out will fail. Confusing signals
Comment: Looks like we will make a drop now, can't say if it's a small one towards 9200 or bigger, that price action is still a bit confusing still
Comment: We had a breakout, but was to weak to push through and really follow through. Could be a small drop towards 9200 to form another wedge, if 9200 breaks could mean the rally is already over, but that would be very weak signs if that happens!
Comment: The former resistance around 9280 is still holding as support. before this drop, i though maybe it could make a drop towards 9200 and make another wave inside this wedge. Just an idea
Comment: This is crazy :)
Comment: I was thinking about what i want Bitcoin to do next, so i drew this line :) Just kidding, i think a bear is a very realistic possibility here
Comment: Bear is bear flag
Comment: Still moving sideways, the wedge is still in play, but has lost most of it's value. There is a very big resistance between 9350/9400 for quite some time now, still can't push through. But bullish signs is, it is staying around these levels so bulls are not giving up. There is a realistic chance we could see a break of this level, and probably an acceleration up when that happens.
Based on the price action i have been seeing since yesterday (not watched it all day) i think the move up is very limited, at least for now, maybe after a small drop things can chance.

I am not staying at home today to watch this, so i won't be updating. Unless i see something worth it, i will try to update. So good luck trading guys :)
Comment: Last couple of days, i have noticed that some analysts here have just been copying my shit. Almost makes me want to take a break for a while to see how they do it than.

Again, the signs are a bit confusing, TA wise i would have to say an upwards breakout is about to happen, made a small upwards triangle. Let's just 60% up and 40% down. Only for the short term, i think the 9600ish is the max for a move up
Comment: Looking at the volume picture, it's actually more likely we make a (small) drop from here.
Comment: It's confusing guys, best advice, when your not in already, better to wait it out. For day traders i mean, others would have to make up their own mind. Good luck :)
Comment: I am just noticing, that if we keep this move for another (half) day or so, we could see the same move we had at 9300 a week ago. Made that squeeze upwards. Starting to look to the same
Comment: This move is what i mean, so when we continue like this for a while and stay above 9200, very big chance we break upwards. But this would probably also mean my whole view for the short term has to change, IF we see a squeeze like that. Just planning ahead :)


Comment: So the price action I saw had the most weight. Because the Bulls just kept pushing, I had doubts, because there was a possibility there were some whales fighting each other. There is still that option for the bear flag, meaning we could move up from around the 9000/9100 again
Comment: Wrong day to take a break :)This is bad, did not think we would drop this fast and this hard already. Support at 9000 broke quite easy, can't say yet what will happen the coming days and how, but i am almost certain we will drop to the low 8K's.

My first thought now, seeing this is: We saw profit taking at the high 9K's, probably from the whales who bought everything up from the 6K levels. And the confusing signs i saw since yesterday, was maybe profit taking as well but probably building up a short position. While i thought a bigger bear flag was still possible, seems i gave to market to much credit. I said a few days ago, that if the 8900/9000 breaks that i was quite certain the 8700 would break as well and that we will drop towards the 8000 again. Now seeing this, can't yet really making anything else from this.
Comment: looks like it's making another small bear flag now, we could just keep on dropping again, can't rally say yet. If bulls manage to extend this flag, than the chances decrease.
Only a break of 9100 could break this drop and cool things down again. Anything below it we have to assume we will break the 8700
Comment: These small bear flags don't succeed as much as they used to a few months ago. Lets see what happens if this one breaks
Comment: Almost breaking the previous low

Comment: So the market is even weaker than i thought, the 8700 will probably break very soon, but can't tell if we break it now or still make a bounce up towards 9000 before dropping again
Comment: Looked a bit at the charts now, looks like we formed a bullish wedge, always 2 options here, break up or down, but down is less likely, more like 25% down. So we could see a move towards 9000 again

Comment: First attempt to break upwards, think it will succeed here
Comment: They have to push through now, or we will see another acceleration down again
Comment: I have just closed my short position from the 9970 :).

Comments

Hey @botje11 ... I have followed all the top analysts for some time now. Some have great TA skills, some average, and some are simply weak. This is the same as in any field. A utility player is not a Lebron James and a 4th liner is not a Connor McDavid. You consistently post your analysis, make adjustments, and the results speak for themselves. Out of all the folks on TV who are great at TA, you are clearly the best!
+24 Reply
physics12 BlurShines
@BlurShines, True!
+1 Reply
botje11 BlurShines
@BlurShines, thank you very much for the kind words :)
+2 Reply
@BlurShines, yes very true. It takes a very giving person to deal with all em haters and still give to the community. Haha a Ghandi of the TA world!
+2 Reply
Who is more accurate?
botje11 or a meteorologist?

I'd say botje11 is more accurate.
+21 Reply
Andy1998 UnknownUnicorn1780802
@UnknownUnicorn1780802, meteorologist cant predict the weather tomorrow but think they can predict the temperature in 30 years. If they were traders they would be poop.

botje11 is king
+10 Reply
DrViking Andy1998
@Andy1998, I hope you were being deliberately incorrect here. Weather and climate are two fundamentally different things. I do appreciate your poop comment, however, get your main point, and fully support it! :D
+3 Reply
Snuby3 DrViking
@DrViking, as a meteorologist i can weigh in. the difference between weather and climate is the timescale. it's like saying technical analysis of a 5 minute chart and technical analysis of a daily chart are fundamentally different, which, they are not. the climate models currently producing our climate forecasts do not include THE SUN in the data input. They do not consider fluctuations in solar output/activity AT ALL in the forecasts, which.. is obviously a massive oversight. the sun has cycles of hotter and cooler periods which is the main driving force behind our weather and climate. they don't even mention it, or the cycles it goes through. which is crazy to me. no doubt we are changing the atmosphere but the current climate forecasts are useless IMHO, and based on very accurate and very long term measurements of solar activity, we may be entering a new maunder minimum which would mean the greenhouse gases would save us from the next ice age by keeping it warmer. something to think about
Reply
botje11 UnknownUnicorn1780802
Reply
David, You just posted 20 minutes ago...I have no idea when u sleep...or if u sleep. Much appreciate the dedication man.
+12 Reply
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