3 months to Halving.
The mighty Halving bull market.
Expecting a mighty halving bull market to 0.
Just another flop...
"Oh but it went up in the following months"
Same was said for consensus...
And so on...
The problem is up 100% short equivalent is only down 50% so tight stops help, and only taking it if it's a high convergence area.
Bears are just probably shorting too early they always do, so pay attention to them. "Risk" missing out, to get the juiciest trades when you do not miss out.
It's not about the trades you take, it's about the ones you avoid, it really is, just filtering all the uncertain bad stuff.
11500 to 12000 is a high probability area I think, got my reasons: TL, EW, fib and stuff. I mean you can just check for yourself, got all support and everything converging here and 78.6% which Bitcoin reacts to all the time because it's so stupid.
The mighty Halving bull market.
Expecting a mighty halving bull market to 0.
Just another flop...
"Oh but it went up in the following months"
Same was said for consensus...
And so on...
The problem is up 100% short equivalent is only down 50% so tight stops help, and only taking it if it's a high convergence area.
Bears are just probably shorting too early they always do, so pay attention to them. "Risk" missing out, to get the juiciest trades when you do not miss out.
It's not about the trades you take, it's about the ones you avoid, it really is, just filtering all the uncertain bad stuff.
11500 to 12000 is a high probability area I think, got my reasons: TL, EW, fib and stuff. I mean you can just check for yourself, got all support and everything converging here and 78.6% which Bitcoin reacts to all the time because it's so stupid.
Order cancelled:
Obviously it didn't got to 11500 and the trade is cancelled, a shame. Nice crash.
Wedge got a bear break and retest as resistance.
Also at 0.618.
And you got overwhelming bullish sentiment and celebrating.
I said I got my reasons, I am going to develop a little.
CNBC panel all bullish on Bitcoin, and they are publishing articles on how Trump can never win - oh wait no that's the sister MSNBC - they are publishing articles on how Bitcoin will go to 12000 and much more.
If BTC gets to 12k it would mean they are right.
Looking at a recent similar example in FX:
Doesn't have to be drawn perfectly...
Could go like this:
The important question is did Bitcoin ever have a bull market when it went up diagonally? And the answer to that is NO.
I have noted 2 parabolic moves since ath.
You may have noted the MA cross...
There may be a retrace at this .618 but I don't feel certain enough about this.
Missing out is great, it's how you make money. Miss out on wins but also on losses and keep the very best only.
Here are reasons why 11500ish is very interesting, it's a bit dirty:
Also, what would be "perfect", fit with the whole theory, would be getting a parabolic move as I have shown, from .618 or .786.
And since we are now finally getting bearish parabolic moves, capitulation could be close (well "close" months to years away), this could be the big one. Easy idk 70% maybe if we can catch it.
What I predicted long ago was if I remember correctly 1-2 years bull 6-12 months bear 1-3 years bear.
Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for 8 months.
It would make sense that it continues slowly down for another year or so, before catapulting down and bottom at perhaps $1500.
Then from there accumulation for months and so on.
I am not saying the next bull market will make a new ath.
Probably an interesting buy & hold in 2021 at 1-2k.