Thinking from a longer term perspective of where I would want to to maximize my BTC allocation, and at this point I think that 12k to 9k area is that place.
Depending on which situation we find ourselves in:
A. A. Red path - A similar event to the 2020 covid crash where a exogenous event caused a crash and then a FED intervention that led to a V reversal across risk assets; could unfold if something broke in legacy markets this time around and the FED would go a similar path (the pivot), unlikely and a less than 20% probability
B. B. Blue path - A similar outcome to the 2018 market bottom to happen after the 6k floor broke, would lead this time around to a market bottom around Q1 2023 after we get the final capitulation, a bit more likely than A but less than 30% probability
C. C. Grey path - A similar route to the 2014-2015 bear market where we had a long time in a bottom range, a lot more similar to the current situation where I would assign more than 30% probability
D. Others scenarios that I don't wish to cover here but that are still at a healthy 20% or more probability
Either way I don't buy the buy here scenarios since it doesn't make sense for a market structure point of view. Get above 20k and then we could be forced to accept a bullish scenario unforeseen at this point, but other than that I am waiting for 12k-9k area either a fast dip and bounce or a long accumulation there.
A lot more things than TA have been taken into account when assigning probabilities, to the various scenarios.
Going to unpack this as we move along the timeline.
Depending on which situation we find ourselves in:
A. A. Red path - A similar event to the 2020 covid crash where a exogenous event caused a crash and then a FED intervention that led to a V reversal across risk assets; could unfold if something broke in legacy markets this time around and the FED would go a similar path (the pivot), unlikely and a less than 20% probability
B. B. Blue path - A similar outcome to the 2018 market bottom to happen after the 6k floor broke, would lead this time around to a market bottom around Q1 2023 after we get the final capitulation, a bit more likely than A but less than 30% probability
C. C. Grey path - A similar route to the 2014-2015 bear market where we had a long time in a bottom range, a lot more similar to the current situation where I would assign more than 30% probability
D. Others scenarios that I don't wish to cover here but that are still at a healthy 20% or more probability
Either way I don't buy the buy here scenarios since it doesn't make sense for a market structure point of view. Get above 20k and then we could be forced to accept a bullish scenario unforeseen at this point, but other than that I am waiting for 12k-9k area either a fast dip and bounce or a long accumulation there.
A lot more things than TA have been taken into account when assigning probabilities, to the various scenarios.
Going to unpack this as we move along the timeline.