This is Part 3 of my epic series breaking down every major, relevant Segment in Bitcoins' price history, and explaining how they fit into the 'Historical Elliot Wave Count.' In short, what this Count implies is nothing less than astonishing: Essentially Bitcoin has just completed a decade long, (Running Triple Three) Wave 2 Correction and is now in an extremely powerful Wave 3 that should take the price to over 10 Million $ per coin, with the bulk of this appreciation (if not all) occurring within the next 5-10 years. See my published chart (which preceded the series) to view what the massive, Wave 2 Correction looks like when zoomed out, as well as a bit of the rationale that supports this Count:
Snapshot
Published Chart
Also, for more context as to what this series is all about, have a look at parts 1 and 2:
The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.1
The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.2
To date, the historical chart can be seperated into six Segments, I will be continuing to dedicate a post (a part of the series) to each of them. The term Segment should be taken loosely to mean a Section of the market data eligible for Classification as a Wave to be included in a larger Count. In this post, Segment 3 will be the focus. Again, I will continue to build upon the theme of speaking from a Direct perspective (analyzing one piece of the puzzle under a microscope), yet also gradually bridge the gap with an InDirect perspective (how the pieces of the puzzle all fit together, and how such necessarily informs the conclusions about any given piece). With the above in mind, consider that the start of every Segment or Wave is the end of another, thus why I thought it would be valuable to include a brief revisiting of Segment 2. Before jumping into Segment 3, I will again include a small taste of the flavor of the times.
Title for this Segment: "Venture Capital continues to flood into Bitcoin, Wall Street takes note"
In Post 2, we spoke about the fall of Mt. Gox, and whispers of the 'Tech guys' dipping their toes in the water amidst Bitcoins first ever prolonged bear market (before the 2013 rise it was a highly illiquid market). Throughout this bear market, government-confiscated Silk Road coins were continually auctioned off, serving to dampen all attempts at a trend-changing rally. It was amidst this backdrop that Bitcoin found its' first 'buyer of last resort' in Tim Draper, in this sense, he was basically the Michael Saylor of the times.
Without batting an eye, Draper, again and again, packed the trunk with three digit coins, instilling a confidence in the space the new, immature market had never seen. Not only did this buying have a very real effect on the supply-demand dynamic of an asset that aims to be the future of money, but it also influenced others in the shadows to begin to publicly speak out not just about their own positions but more importantly, their intentions to support the space with the Capital it would need to grow into the powerhouse it has now become. Draper (in addition to Andreesan, Hickey, Pantera, and a few others), was the first domino to fall: Segment 3 was characterized by all the rest following suit, piling into the space continuing to build out the Wallet, Exchange, and Merchant-Proccessing infrastructure. Similarly, Barry Silbert continued to bet big on Bitcoin offering the first 'legitimate' investment vehicle, a work-around of sorts that allowed money to flow in (which otherwise could not have using 'shady' overseas exchanges), forcing Wall Street to at least acknowledge the nascent asset. Ultimately, the CME would mark the top of the rise offering the first ever Bitcoin Futures market.
There were also another two topics dominating the 'flavor of the times' that bares mentioning: The Bitcoin Fork Wars Ethereum Mania. In the beginning of Segment 3, all attention was on what would be the culmination of a raging debate amongst the Bitcoin community: The block size debate. As the price began to rise from the ongoing influx of money mentioned earlier, uncertainty around how the block size debate would be resolved (or rather which approach, or combination of approaches, would win out, and how) loomed and served as the cold water to be poured on every potential acceleration of the new bull market. In the essence of staying on track with this post, I will condense the sequence of events to this brief summary: The decision by Bitmain to hard fork the Bitcoin Protocol resulting in a distinct coin Bitcoin Cash, the failure of an 'industry led' attempt to force a block size increase into the adoption of Segregated Witness ('SegWit2X'), and the adoption of Segregated Witness by Litecoin (as well as the threat of a 'User Activated Soft Fork') all contributed to any uncertainty the market migh have had about this ongoing debate being removed, thus leading to the 2017 blow off top.
Alongside all of this, Ethereum had become a household name, enabling and encouraging huge speculation to enter the market. Most of this speculation came from retail investors, who were intoxicated by the marketing of a more exotic Bitcoin, but this version had a 'boy genius' figurehead, providing a founder they could worship like the Tech Companies they were familiar with investing in. Prompted by the sound financial advice of CNBC and others (sarcasm), the crowd followed into Ethereum, ICOs, Ripple, and others setting the stage for the eventual popping of the bubble.
Of course, there was much more happening at the time, but hopefully the above should suffice in giving at least a feel for what occurred during this Segment. Now, let's get to the meat and potatos and dig into some charts. Segments 1 and 2 required many snapshots to cover, alternatively, going forward my analysis will likely be more consice as the stage has, for the most part, been set. I was able to condense both the Time and Wave Type analysis of Segment 3 into one main Chart Snapshot (which should also be the image in the published chart), this represents the complete picture of Segment 3 analyzed *from a Direct perspective*, it is the last snapshot. The first few snapshots help provide some preliminary techniques that help inform how both Segments 2 and 3 were counted, and how they each fit together and fit within the larger Historical Count.
Chart Snapshots (see below for a short description and/or any relevant notes):
-'Where' to begin Segment 3.
The ability to discern 'where' a Segment begins and ends is one of the most overlooked requisite skills needed to master the Elliot Wave Principle. Similar
to determing 'Where to begin your Count' in Part 1, getting this right is crucial, it establishes what will help serve as the foundation for your analysis.
-Where the price data connects 'Cleanly' (incorrect approach to determining the beginning of Segment 3).
-'Exposed Points' Duration, Degree,
Structure, and Type in and of the
Segments.
-Snapshot of the Published Chart.
Snapshot
Published Chart
Also, for more context as to what this series is all about, have a look at parts 1 and 2:
The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.1
The Life of Bitcoin: The definitive Historical Count Pt.2
To date, the historical chart can be seperated into six Segments, I will be continuing to dedicate a post (a part of the series) to each of them. The term Segment should be taken loosely to mean a Section of the market data eligible for Classification as a Wave to be included in a larger Count. In this post, Segment 3 will be the focus. Again, I will continue to build upon the theme of speaking from a Direct perspective (analyzing one piece of the puzzle under a microscope), yet also gradually bridge the gap with an InDirect perspective (how the pieces of the puzzle all fit together, and how such necessarily informs the conclusions about any given piece). With the above in mind, consider that the start of every Segment or Wave is the end of another, thus why I thought it would be valuable to include a brief revisiting of Segment 2. Before jumping into Segment 3, I will again include a small taste of the flavor of the times.
Title for this Segment: "Venture Capital continues to flood into Bitcoin, Wall Street takes note"
In Post 2, we spoke about the fall of Mt. Gox, and whispers of the 'Tech guys' dipping their toes in the water amidst Bitcoins first ever prolonged bear market (before the 2013 rise it was a highly illiquid market). Throughout this bear market, government-confiscated Silk Road coins were continually auctioned off, serving to dampen all attempts at a trend-changing rally. It was amidst this backdrop that Bitcoin found its' first 'buyer of last resort' in Tim Draper, in this sense, he was basically the Michael Saylor of the times.
Without batting an eye, Draper, again and again, packed the trunk with three digit coins, instilling a confidence in the space the new, immature market had never seen. Not only did this buying have a very real effect on the supply-demand dynamic of an asset that aims to be the future of money, but it also influenced others in the shadows to begin to publicly speak out not just about their own positions but more importantly, their intentions to support the space with the Capital it would need to grow into the powerhouse it has now become. Draper (in addition to Andreesan, Hickey, Pantera, and a few others), was the first domino to fall: Segment 3 was characterized by all the rest following suit, piling into the space continuing to build out the Wallet, Exchange, and Merchant-Proccessing infrastructure. Similarly, Barry Silbert continued to bet big on Bitcoin offering the first 'legitimate' investment vehicle, a work-around of sorts that allowed money to flow in (which otherwise could not have using 'shady' overseas exchanges), forcing Wall Street to at least acknowledge the nascent asset. Ultimately, the CME would mark the top of the rise offering the first ever Bitcoin Futures market.
There were also another two topics dominating the 'flavor of the times' that bares mentioning: The Bitcoin Fork Wars Ethereum Mania. In the beginning of Segment 3, all attention was on what would be the culmination of a raging debate amongst the Bitcoin community: The block size debate. As the price began to rise from the ongoing influx of money mentioned earlier, uncertainty around how the block size debate would be resolved (or rather which approach, or combination of approaches, would win out, and how) loomed and served as the cold water to be poured on every potential acceleration of the new bull market. In the essence of staying on track with this post, I will condense the sequence of events to this brief summary: The decision by Bitmain to hard fork the Bitcoin Protocol resulting in a distinct coin Bitcoin Cash, the failure of an 'industry led' attempt to force a block size increase into the adoption of Segregated Witness ('SegWit2X'), and the adoption of Segregated Witness by Litecoin (as well as the threat of a 'User Activated Soft Fork') all contributed to any uncertainty the market migh have had about this ongoing debate being removed, thus leading to the 2017 blow off top.
Alongside all of this, Ethereum had become a household name, enabling and encouraging huge speculation to enter the market. Most of this speculation came from retail investors, who were intoxicated by the marketing of a more exotic Bitcoin, but this version had a 'boy genius' figurehead, providing a founder they could worship like the Tech Companies they were familiar with investing in. Prompted by the sound financial advice of CNBC and others (sarcasm), the crowd followed into Ethereum, ICOs, Ripple, and others setting the stage for the eventual popping of the bubble.
Of course, there was much more happening at the time, but hopefully the above should suffice in giving at least a feel for what occurred during this Segment. Now, let's get to the meat and potatos and dig into some charts. Segments 1 and 2 required many snapshots to cover, alternatively, going forward my analysis will likely be more consice as the stage has, for the most part, been set. I was able to condense both the Time and Wave Type analysis of Segment 3 into one main Chart Snapshot (which should also be the image in the published chart), this represents the complete picture of Segment 3 analyzed *from a Direct perspective*, it is the last snapshot. The first few snapshots help provide some preliminary techniques that help inform how both Segments 2 and 3 were counted, and how they each fit together and fit within the larger Historical Count.
Chart Snapshots (see below for a short description and/or any relevant notes):
The ability to discern 'where' a Segment begins and ends is one of the most overlooked requisite skills needed to master the Elliot Wave Principle. Similar
to determing 'Where to begin your Count' in Part 1, getting this right is crucial, it establishes what will help serve as the foundation for your analysis.
Structure, and Type in and of the
Segments.
