Imho, this will be the most likely path forward. The that everyone is afraid of will not play out and instead BTC's price will trend sideway for the next 2 days and then it will break above the 21 (12H candle) on the 5th day from the moment we closed below the 21 (12H candle) which is where I have the first black vertical line - should be Jan 15th (not 16th) - the moment we surpass the 21 (12H).
From Jan 15th, we will rise higher and higher (likely no red 12H candles) until we reach a new ATH at 44.2k by Jan 20th (first green horizontal line).
From this new ATH , BTC will trend sideways for 4 days and then rise precipitously (37%) to the new ATH once again to $61k by Jan 28th.
Once we reach $61k on Jan 28th, we could see a 20-25% correction at month end. Thanks and hope you enjoyed this lesson in history. Please leave a like and follow.
Thematically, from a market structure view - we are very early in the cycle and already at $40k which to me is very bullish that we will see highs that no one thought possible considering retail is still barely in this and pension funds and most institutions have yet to get in. Also, the event that could change my price target estimate from $300k to $1m would be when a reputable Central Bank starts buying BTC as a reserve asset like they buy gold. This would have to be a bank like the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada, Australia, or US. If/when that occurs, then yes, we will easily see BTC at $1 million by the end of this year.