Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process
Throughout the past six months I have been calling for a return to $1,000. I was convinced that $3,200 was not the bottom for a number of reasons and now it appears that I was sorely mistaken.
There are two types of mistakes when it comes to trading, ones that cost money and ones that cost opportunity. By not buying in during the first quarter of 2019 I missed out on some huge opportunity, but I didn’t cost myself any capital.
When close to the top or the bottom of a major market cycle it is very important be okay with missing out on opportunity. Many who bought sub $4,000 also bought when the price consolidated $6,000 and took a stop loss when it broke down. Many did the same at $7,500, $10,000 and $12,500.
After accounting for the losses, buying the bottom is often far less lucrative than it may seem. I was selling those prices and now I have the desirable opportunity of buying back in cheaper, eventhough it is far from the lowest prices of the quarter.
I believe that there is a 75% chance that the bottom is in.
That percentage will increase to 100% if we can put in a solid higher low above $6,200 and then a higher high above $8,200. Those chances are more than enough for me to start scaling in. If we do get a higher low / higher high then want to be fully entered.
Everyone tells you to “buy the dip” but most do not go on to explain how. I will be using a combination of Dollar Cost Averaging and dip buying in order to increase my exposure to Bitcoin. My full strategy along with multiple additional options are outlined in this two part post. The topics covered will be: Buying the Dip with Moving Averages, Buying the Dip with Trendlines and Fractals, Dollar Cost Average by Time, Dollar Cost Average by Price, Daily Dollar Cost Average, Psychology and Risk Management.
The first part will cover tactics for Buying the Dip
The second part will cover Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging
Both parts will touch on Risk Management and Psychology
Buying The Dip With Moving Averages
My preferred approach is using Exponential Moving Averages to scale into a dip when the asset is in a confirmed bull market. I also use EMA’s to determine the trend. If the 50 W EMA is moving up, with the price above, then it is a confirmed bull trend.
After determining that the trend is bullish I have decided to increase exposure. Now I will use the 50 and 200 EMA’s and zoom into the 1D and 4h charts in order to time my entries. Using those areas of support I will set Good-Until-Cancel Limit Orders.
In general I will do something along the lines of:
4h 50 EMA: 10%
4h 200 EMA: 20%
1D 50 EMA: 30%
1D 200 EMA: 40%
4h EMA DCA
1d EMA’s
As price decreases I increase the exposure and improve the cost basis. Ideally the price will spend very little time below the 50 Day EMA. Instead I would want to see a sharp bounce from the 200 EMA and a close back above the 50 EMA.
If the price spends much time below the 50 Day EMA then it will roll over and there would be a large risk of a death cross.
When buying the dip using EMA’s I do not like having a set stop loss on the books, in the event of a spike low that would wipe me out right before the bounce. Instead I will use the death cross as my stop loss, as well as a potential area to flip my position and go short.
This is why it is important for the price to rebound sharply after testing the daily EMA’s for support. This is less likely when the EMA’s have only recently crossed and have not established a proven trend.
Recently crossed EMA’s are the first sign of a reversal, they are too immature to be considered an established trend. Therefore I will be quick to exit my position if the price struggles to stay above the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s, which currently waits in the $5,000 neighborhood.
Do not assume that the Moving Averages that I use are the best. Different durations should be used for different assets and different time frames. In general higher volatility calls for shorter term MA’s or EMA’s and shorter time frames do as well.
I prefer Exponential Moving Averages because I have found that they are better at identifying areas of support and resistance and they also tend to provide less false signals than Simple Moving Averages.
To learn more about using Moving Averages to signal entries / exits and identify areas of support and resistance refer to:
Deep Dive Into Consensio with Tyler Jenks
Confirm Entries with Horizontals and TL’s
As always it is important to confirm entries with other indicators. My favorite indicators for buying dips are Exponential Moving Averages, Horizontal Support, and Trend Support. When those are all in confluence then it represents a low risk, high probability opportunity to buy the dip.
It is quite common that those areas of support line up with one another. If the price is in a confirmed bull trend then the EMA will be trending up with the price above. There will often be a trendline that is established from the higher lows that is near to the EMA.
There are currently a number of trendlines that can be drawn on BTC and we notice that the 200 EMA on the 4h chart is slithering right in between two of them. The 200 Day EMA is doing something very similar with the two lower trendlines.
This is exactly what I like to see. It shows that we are in a strong trend and that there will be a ton of support waiting on a pullback. What is even more important than trendlines is areas of horizontal support. These can be drawn using prior areas of horizontal resistance. I strongly prefer using the weekly chart when drawing horizontals because the important price points usually become much more clear.
As we can see the buy areas identified by the 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart and Daily line up exactly with areas of prior support and resistance. This is very important confirmation for me when I plan on Buying the Dip Using Moving Averages.
If the entries are not in line with horizontals then I will make adjustments to my orders or pass on the entry entirely. Seeing a confluence of demand is very important to me and I will always use Trendlines and Horizontals to confirm entries signaled by the Moving Averages.
Let’s consider the entry price if price pulls back to $5,000 and all of the orders get filled.
Assuming that I have $10,000 that I want to enter on this dip:
30% at $5,800
40% at $5,100
20% at $6,200
10% at $7,250
Average price = $5,681
The gameplan would be to exit if the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s do not support the price and instead get a death cross. That would need to happen with the price below $5,000 and I would expect to exit in the $4,800 neighborhood. That provides a 15.5% risk. This would be done with the assumption that we are entering the next bull market and the upside provides a risk:reward ratio that is good as it will ever get.
However, keep in mind that the numbers outlined above will change every day. The EMA’s are moving up every day that the price moves up. Therefore the entries prices are slowly getting worse and the risk is slowly increasing. Furthermore the $4,800 exit is only a projection and with the volatility in BTC anything can happen before the EMA’s recross. Therefore it is extremely important to fully understand the risks of employing this approach.
This is an important concept to be aware of. Many people will target a specific price when looking to buy a dip. In reality the price that one should be willing to pay on a dip should increase as the price continues trending up.
Buying the Dip Using Trendlines And Bill Williams Fractals
Many people are not comfortable with the approach outlined above. I was recently on Tone Vays podcast and he objected to the idea of leaving a Good-Until-Cancel Limit Order on the books to buy a dip. His perspective is perfectly valid and goes to show how there are different strokes for different folks.
The approach outlined below is for individuals who prefer to wait for more confirmation of a reversal, following a dip in price, opposed to leaving open orders on the books. This approach is also preferable for individuals who like using set stop losses which provides a more defined risk parameter.
A very simple and effective way to identify bull markets is with a bull trendline. As long as price is making higher lows then there should be a best fit trendline that can be drawn to identify areas of support.
When price creates a higher high and then pulls back towards a trendline it can represent a great opportunity to establish / increase long exposure. This is usually a lot easier said than done, as is often the case with trading. One of the best ways I have found to time entries when the price is at / near a trendline is with Bill Williams Fractals. Fractals below the price are referred to as down fractals and it is a five candlestick pattern which occurs with the lowest low in the middle and two higher lows on either side.
A more aggressive approach only uses three candles, with the low in the middle and two higher lows that surround it. This is another tool that is very simple and can be very effective when combined with trendlines. It provides confirmation that the trendline held as support and that the price is ready to go higher.
It also provides a great area for a stop loss, especially on higher time frames. If a down fractal gets violated, even for a moment, then it provides strong confirmation that the trend(line) is broken and therefore a stop loss is warranted.
In crypto there are many stop runs and traps. Even those generally fail to violate fractals on the higher time frames, and that is why I think they are a great way to set and trail stop losses. When getting a fractal near a trendline I will look to enter on the second candle following the low, if it trades above the previous candle at any point.
This can be done with a Stop Buy Order that is placed right above the high of the first candle that follows the low. This could also be executed with a manual market order as soon as the entry is confirmed. Either way a stop loss should be immediately entered right below the newly printed down fractal. That stop loss stays in place until it is triggered or a new down fractal is established. The stop loss should be trailed just below the new fractal, as soon as it prints on the chart. This is done as a way to keep you in trades that are moving in the desired direction and to immediately exit at the first significant sign of a reversal.
If a down fractal is taken out then that generally will represent an established lower low. If that happens on the daily chart then it can often be a good time to exit long exposure and wait to see what happens on the correction. That is especially true on the weekly chart.
These entries can also be confirmed with the TD Sequential. If you get a down fractal following a trendline test then a slightly more conservative approach would be to wait for a green 2 trading above a green 1 before entering. This provides further confirmation that the swing low is in and that the price is ready to continue the previous bull trend.
This will usually get a worse price than entering on the final candle of the Bill Williams Fractal, however it will often provide a higher probability entry. It is up to individuals to decide for themselves if they prefer going for the best price, or the highest strike rate.
When looking at two very viable options I always prefer to go with some sort of combination. If looking to enter X then I believe the optimal strategy is to use the fractal to enter 1/2X and the TD Sequential to enter the other 1/2X. This means I will only be fully entered when the price is moving in my favor and will also limit my exposure / risk when price moves against the first entry.
Those are my two preferred methods for Buying the Dip. I find them to be very effective and most important they are approaches that I can trust in the heat of the moment. It will take time and experience to gain trust for any trading technique, that is why I always strongly encourage people to start small, but think big.
Eventhough I have learned to trust my dip buying tactics, I still do not employ that approach exclusively. For a number of reasons, primarily psychological, I prefer to compliment my dip buying with consistent Dollar Cost Averaging. This helps to alleviate anxiety when the market is running away from me and is a great way to remain patient while waiting for a dip that seems like it may never come. Furthermore it is a good way to hedge myself and ensure that I am increasing exposure if the dip I am expecting never does come, or if it doesn't come down as far as I'm expecting. Those topics will be covered in depth in the next post titled - Sawcruhteez Strategies: Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process
Throughout the past six months I have been calling for a return to $1,000. I was convinced that $3,200 was not the bottom for a number of reasons and now it appears that I was sorely mistaken.
There are two types of mistakes when it comes to trading, ones that cost money and ones that cost opportunity. By not buying in during the first quarter of 2019 I missed out on some huge opportunity, but I didn’t cost myself any capital.
When close to the top or the bottom of a major market cycle it is very important be okay with missing out on opportunity. Many who bought sub $4,000 also bought when the price consolidated $6,000 and took a stop loss when it broke down. Many did the same at $7,500, $10,000 and $12,500.
After accounting for the losses, buying the bottom is often far less lucrative than it may seem. I was selling those prices and now I have the desirable opportunity of buying back in cheaper, eventhough it is far from the lowest prices of the quarter.
I believe that there is a 75% chance that the bottom is in.
That percentage will increase to 100% if we can put in a solid higher low above $6,200 and then a higher high above $8,200. Those chances are more than enough for me to start scaling in. If we do get a higher low / higher high then want to be fully entered.
Everyone tells you to “buy the dip” but most do not go on to explain how. I will be using a combination of Dollar Cost Averaging and dip buying in order to increase my exposure to Bitcoin. My full strategy along with multiple additional options are outlined in this two part post. The topics covered will be: Buying the Dip with Moving Averages, Buying the Dip with Trendlines and Fractals, Dollar Cost Average by Time, Dollar Cost Average by Price, Daily Dollar Cost Average, Psychology and Risk Management.
The first part will cover tactics for Buying the Dip
The second part will cover Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging
Both parts will touch on Risk Management and Psychology
Buying The Dip With Moving Averages
My preferred approach is using Exponential Moving Averages to scale into a dip when the asset is in a confirmed bull market. I also use EMA’s to determine the trend. If the 50 W EMA is moving up, with the price above, then it is a confirmed bull trend.
After determining that the trend is bullish I have decided to increase exposure. Now I will use the 50 and 200 EMA’s and zoom into the 1D and 4h charts in order to time my entries. Using those areas of support I will set Good-Until-Cancel Limit Orders.
In general I will do something along the lines of:
4h 50 EMA: 10%
4h 200 EMA: 20%
1D 50 EMA: 30%
1D 200 EMA: 40%
4h EMA DCA
1d EMA’s
As price decreases I increase the exposure and improve the cost basis. Ideally the price will spend very little time below the 50 Day EMA. Instead I would want to see a sharp bounce from the 200 EMA and a close back above the 50 EMA.
If the price spends much time below the 50 Day EMA then it will roll over and there would be a large risk of a death cross.
When buying the dip using EMA’s I do not like having a set stop loss on the books, in the event of a spike low that would wipe me out right before the bounce. Instead I will use the death cross as my stop loss, as well as a potential area to flip my position and go short.
This is why it is important for the price to rebound sharply after testing the daily EMA’s for support. This is less likely when the EMA’s have only recently crossed and have not established a proven trend.
Recently crossed EMA’s are the first sign of a reversal, they are too immature to be considered an established trend. Therefore I will be quick to exit my position if the price struggles to stay above the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s, which currently waits in the $5,000 neighborhood.
Do not assume that the Moving Averages that I use are the best. Different durations should be used for different assets and different time frames. In general higher volatility calls for shorter term MA’s or EMA’s and shorter time frames do as well.
I prefer Exponential Moving Averages because I have found that they are better at identifying areas of support and resistance and they also tend to provide less false signals than Simple Moving Averages.
To learn more about using Moving Averages to signal entries / exits and identify areas of support and resistance refer to:
Deep Dive Into Consensio with Tyler Jenks
Confirm Entries with Horizontals and TL’s
As always it is important to confirm entries with other indicators. My favorite indicators for buying dips are Exponential Moving Averages, Horizontal Support, and Trend Support. When those are all in confluence then it represents a low risk, high probability opportunity to buy the dip.
It is quite common that those areas of support line up with one another. If the price is in a confirmed bull trend then the EMA will be trending up with the price above. There will often be a trendline that is established from the higher lows that is near to the EMA.
There are currently a number of trendlines that can be drawn on BTC and we notice that the 200 EMA on the 4h chart is slithering right in between two of them. The 200 Day EMA is doing something very similar with the two lower trendlines.
This is exactly what I like to see. It shows that we are in a strong trend and that there will be a ton of support waiting on a pullback. What is even more important than trendlines is areas of horizontal support. These can be drawn using prior areas of horizontal resistance. I strongly prefer using the weekly chart when drawing horizontals because the important price points usually become much more clear.
As we can see the buy areas identified by the 50 and 200 EMA’s on the 4h chart and Daily line up exactly with areas of prior support and resistance. This is very important confirmation for me when I plan on Buying the Dip Using Moving Averages.
If the entries are not in line with horizontals then I will make adjustments to my orders or pass on the entry entirely. Seeing a confluence of demand is very important to me and I will always use Trendlines and Horizontals to confirm entries signaled by the Moving Averages.
Let’s consider the entry price if price pulls back to $5,000 and all of the orders get filled.
Assuming that I have $10,000 that I want to enter on this dip:
30% at $5,800
40% at $5,100
20% at $6,200
10% at $7,250
Average price = $5,681
The gameplan would be to exit if the 50 and 200 Day EMA’s do not support the price and instead get a death cross. That would need to happen with the price below $5,000 and I would expect to exit in the $4,800 neighborhood. That provides a 15.5% risk. This would be done with the assumption that we are entering the next bull market and the upside provides a risk:reward ratio that is good as it will ever get.
However, keep in mind that the numbers outlined above will change every day. The EMA’s are moving up every day that the price moves up. Therefore the entries prices are slowly getting worse and the risk is slowly increasing. Furthermore the $4,800 exit is only a projection and with the volatility in BTC anything can happen before the EMA’s recross. Therefore it is extremely important to fully understand the risks of employing this approach.
This is an important concept to be aware of. Many people will target a specific price when looking to buy a dip. In reality the price that one should be willing to pay on a dip should increase as the price continues trending up.
Buying the Dip Using Trendlines And Bill Williams Fractals
Many people are not comfortable with the approach outlined above. I was recently on Tone Vays podcast and he objected to the idea of leaving a Good-Until-Cancel Limit Order on the books to buy a dip. His perspective is perfectly valid and goes to show how there are different strokes for different folks.
The approach outlined below is for individuals who prefer to wait for more confirmation of a reversal, following a dip in price, opposed to leaving open orders on the books. This approach is also preferable for individuals who like using set stop losses which provides a more defined risk parameter.
A very simple and effective way to identify bull markets is with a bull trendline. As long as price is making higher lows then there should be a best fit trendline that can be drawn to identify areas of support.
When price creates a higher high and then pulls back towards a trendline it can represent a great opportunity to establish / increase long exposure. This is usually a lot easier said than done, as is often the case with trading. One of the best ways I have found to time entries when the price is at / near a trendline is with Bill Williams Fractals. Fractals below the price are referred to as down fractals and it is a five candlestick pattern which occurs with the lowest low in the middle and two higher lows on either side.
A more aggressive approach only uses three candles, with the low in the middle and two higher lows that surround it. This is another tool that is very simple and can be very effective when combined with trendlines. It provides confirmation that the trendline held as support and that the price is ready to go higher.
It also provides a great area for a stop loss, especially on higher time frames. If a down fractal gets violated, even for a moment, then it provides strong confirmation that the trend(line) is broken and therefore a stop loss is warranted.
In crypto there are many stop runs and traps. Even those generally fail to violate fractals on the higher time frames, and that is why I think they are a great way to set and trail stop losses. When getting a fractal near a trendline I will look to enter on the second candle following the low, if it trades above the previous candle at any point.
This can be done with a Stop Buy Order that is placed right above the high of the first candle that follows the low. This could also be executed with a manual market order as soon as the entry is confirmed. Either way a stop loss should be immediately entered right below the newly printed down fractal. That stop loss stays in place until it is triggered or a new down fractal is established. The stop loss should be trailed just below the new fractal, as soon as it prints on the chart. This is done as a way to keep you in trades that are moving in the desired direction and to immediately exit at the first significant sign of a reversal.
If a down fractal is taken out then that generally will represent an established lower low. If that happens on the daily chart then it can often be a good time to exit long exposure and wait to see what happens on the correction. That is especially true on the weekly chart.
These entries can also be confirmed with the TD Sequential. If you get a down fractal following a trendline test then a slightly more conservative approach would be to wait for a green 2 trading above a green 1 before entering. This provides further confirmation that the swing low is in and that the price is ready to continue the previous bull trend.
This will usually get a worse price than entering on the final candle of the Bill Williams Fractal, however it will often provide a higher probability entry. It is up to individuals to decide for themselves if they prefer going for the best price, or the highest strike rate.
When looking at two very viable options I always prefer to go with some sort of combination. If looking to enter X then I believe the optimal strategy is to use the fractal to enter 1/2X and the TD Sequential to enter the other 1/2X. This means I will only be fully entered when the price is moving in my favor and will also limit my exposure / risk when price moves against the first entry.
Those are my two preferred methods for Buying the Dip. I find them to be very effective and most important they are approaches that I can trust in the heat of the moment. It will take time and experience to gain trust for any trading technique, that is why I always strongly encourage people to start small, but think big.
Eventhough I have learned to trust my dip buying tactics, I still do not employ that approach exclusively. For a number of reasons, primarily psychological, I prefer to compliment my dip buying with consistent Dollar Cost Averaging. This helps to alleviate anxiety when the market is running away from me and is a great way to remain patient while waiting for a dip that seems like it may never come. Furthermore it is a good way to hedge myself and ensure that I am increasing exposure if the dip I am expecting never does come, or if it doesn't come down as far as I'm expecting. Those topics will be covered in depth in the next post titled - Sawcruhteez Strategies: Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/