So here we are almost near the end of consensus 2018, and the situation is looking rather grim from my perspective. We've now had a run-up to 10k and denied, hit 9500 and denied, hit 9k and denied - now we're at 9200ish at the point of writing this and I cannot see a situation in which any of this is bullish
. The market has taken multiple sustained hits and hasn't recovered an iota - the sentiment has remained bullish
on the fact that I think people have made easy money for so long that they cannot envision a situation where this can get any worse and are waiting at the door for the slightest bull case.
So my projection looks like thus:
Scenario 1: Looking at my favorite indicator on a 6-hour scale this is going to cascade more then likely into 7800 within the next 24 hours and will begin what i believe is the panic portion of the classic bubble chart. I find trader sentiment heavily based in denial and I think this is only going to feed that trend. An inability to hold 7800-8200 means in my opinion 7500 is next.
Scenario 2: (Extremely highly unlikely) Bullish
, we bounce in the next 6-12 hours to revisit 9k, and then have a panic drop
. I cannot see this from any point other then it fits into the lines.