When the waters are not clear, it's a good practice to take some distance and observe things from far away.
Assuming the cyclic nature of markets, and the symmetrical beauty that has played out so far in Bitcoin, from this chart we can see that after the bullrun of Nov '13, that ended with a dump making the price crash of 87%, Bitcoin moved up and down inside a large uptrend channel which remained valid for over 2 years. We can also see that the downtrend that brought to the crash happened after it broke down EMA 50 on weekly (orange). Then, it touched EMA 200 (pink). The uptrend was resumed when it went above the orange line again, and it never happened again - not even one time by shallow mistake - that it tried to touch it again. They stayed apart from one another as if one of the two was affected by plague. Finally, when it went over the top of the channel it exploded in a rally that we are all very familiar with and which led to astonishing prices such as 20,000 $ for one single Bitcoin. Now we might get all philosophical and question "what is a bitcoin" or even "what is money" but that goes beyond the purpose of this post.
Assuming all of this, and looking a bit closer and with more attention, we might be able to notice a few striking similarities with the crash that happened very recently. The price went down the orange line, and the crash happened, for 85% of the price, again. Then, it stopped around the pink line. Now, after going above the orange line again, we are testing the top of the channel that was created in the past years.
Since we are above the EMA 50, I assume that we have resumed the uptrend. But I also assume that we are not exploding in another furious bull run YET, especially after such a big crash. People need to recover psychologically from that and feel safe in the market. Now it's mostly FOMO fueling this bullrun, and whales of course.
We are in overbought area and it has not yet retraced since the start of the pump. I assume the crash will be brutal, and bringing the price at least down to 6000. It will get close or even touch the orange line, then go up and down in the major uptrend channel for a couple of years of so, to finally start a new crazy bullrun that will bring the price to 100k+.
These are, of course, all mere assumptions that I took the pleasure to share with you.
And you?
What are.... YOUR assumptions?....
Assuming the cyclic nature of markets, and the symmetrical beauty that has played out so far in Bitcoin, from this chart we can see that after the bullrun of Nov '13, that ended with a dump making the price crash of 87%, Bitcoin moved up and down inside a large uptrend channel which remained valid for over 2 years. We can also see that the downtrend that brought to the crash happened after it broke down EMA 50 on weekly (orange). Then, it touched EMA 200 (pink). The uptrend was resumed when it went above the orange line again, and it never happened again - not even one time by shallow mistake - that it tried to touch it again. They stayed apart from one another as if one of the two was affected by plague. Finally, when it went over the top of the channel it exploded in a rally that we are all very familiar with and which led to astonishing prices such as 20,000 $ for one single Bitcoin. Now we might get all philosophical and question "what is a bitcoin" or even "what is money" but that goes beyond the purpose of this post.
Assuming all of this, and looking a bit closer and with more attention, we might be able to notice a few striking similarities with the crash that happened very recently. The price went down the orange line, and the crash happened, for 85% of the price, again. Then, it stopped around the pink line. Now, after going above the orange line again, we are testing the top of the channel that was created in the past years.
Since we are above the EMA 50, I assume that we have resumed the uptrend. But I also assume that we are not exploding in another furious bull run YET, especially after such a big crash. People need to recover psychologically from that and feel safe in the market. Now it's mostly FOMO fueling this bullrun, and whales of course.
We are in overbought area and it has not yet retraced since the start of the pump. I assume the crash will be brutal, and bringing the price at least down to 6000. It will get close or even touch the orange line, then go up and down in the major uptrend channel for a couple of years of so, to finally start a new crazy bullrun that will bring the price to 100k+.
These are, of course, all mere assumptions that I took the pleasure to share with you.
And you?
What are.... YOUR assumptions?....
Comment:
To be more on point, now we could be at a time that corresponds to what happened on the start of Nov '15. Back then, the price was touching the top of the channel after a rally that never retraced. Then, it crashed and in one week went back to EMA 50.